After a twenty-one-year hunt, US intelligence managed to eliminate al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri with a drone strike on a house in the center of the Afghan capital, Kabul.
Al-Zawahiri is one of the founders of Al-Qaeda and its second emir to succeed Osama bin Laden after he was assassinated in 2011 by an American operation, in the city of "Iptabad" near the Pakistani capital, Islamabad.
Al-Zawahiri previously worked as an advisor to bin Laden, and led the banned Islamic Jihad Organization in Egypt.
US President Joe Biden's announcement of the killing of al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri was met with wide reactions, ranging from welcoming to criticizing and denouncing, as well as questioning the American narrative.
Ayman al-Zawahiri was assassinated in the center of the Afghan capital, Kabul, in an air raid - carried out by US intelligence - which is the first of its kind after the US withdrawal from Afghanistan.
Al-Zawahiri - wanted No. 1 in Washington - managed to hide from American forces for 11 years, despite the presence of American forces on the border strip between Afghanistan and Pakistan.
The house that was targeted by the American march is located in the diplomatic district, a short distance from the presidential palace and the British embassy in the capital, Kabul. Two of the top aides of the outgoing Afghan president, Ashraf Ghani, lived in it. After Ghani fled the country, the al-Qaeda leader chose this house as his shelter.
This paper discusses the implications and consequences of Al-Zawahiri's assassination on the Taliban movement's relationship with the United States and Al-Qaeda.
Circumstances of the assassination
The American narrative says: Washington killed al-Zawahiri with a missile fired by a drone while he was standing on the balcony of his hideout in Kabul.
A former security source asserts: "Al-Zawahiri used to frequent the border strip between Afghanistan and Pakistan because these areas were under the control of the Taliban and neither the previous Afghan government nor the United States could reach him, and his assassination in this way is doubtful, and the killing of Al-Zawahiri will create new scenarios with new actors and targets new at the regional level” (1)
US Secretary of State, Anthony Blinken, considered that the Taliban "blatantly violated" the Doha agreement by hosting and harboring al-Zawahiri, but Taliban officials confirm that the "Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan" is committed to the agreement signed in the Qatari capital, Doha.
Ayman Al-Zawahiri (networking sites)
The Afghan government did not officially announce the death of Ayman al-Zawahiri, and only issued a statement about the bombing of a house in the diplomatic quarter in the center of Kabul. The statement did not mention the presence of the al-Qaeda leader in Kabul.
The Afghan government condemned the US attack and considered it a clear violation of the country's sovereignty.
The Taliban condemned the attack, describing it as a violation of international principles and the Doha Agreement, and Zabihullah Mujahid stated that "these actions are a repetition of failed experiences during the past 20 years and will harm the opportunities available," which is explained by researcher and political writer, Hikmat Jalil, by saying: "The Afghan government realizes Well, the danger of Al-Zawahiri's assassination in the capital, Kabul, because it is a clear violation of what was agreed upon between the United States and the Taliban in Doha, and the Taliban will lose the confidence of the international community, especially the countries of Central Asia and China" (2).
The assassination of Ayman al-Zawahiri raises a number of important questions about its timing and location, and the consequences it will have on the future of relations between the United States and the Taliban movement on the one hand, and between al-Qaeda and the Taliban on the other.
The Taliban movement has launched an investigation into the incident, which may indicate that the movement’s leadership was not aware of his presence there, and Suhail Shaheen, the Taliban’s designated representative to the United Nations based in Doha, said in a letter that reached the press: “The government or the leadership was not aware of this.” The allegations,” and pointed out that “an investigation is now underway to determine the validity of the allegations,” and the results of the investigation will be published publicly.
Doha agreement terms
Last week, the US President's envoy to Afghanistan, Tam West, participated in a regional conference in the Uzbek capital on Afghanistan, the envoy focused in his speech on combating terrorism, while the Afghan acting foreign minister, Amir Khan Muttaki, stressed in his speech that his country adheres to the Doha agreement and does not It allows the use of Afghan territory as a base for transnational terrorism and that the Islamic Emirate has provided security and stability in the country.
During the Tashkent conference, the US intelligence was putting the final touches on the assassination of Ayman al-Zawahiri.
It seems that Al-Zawahiri's presence in Kabul undermines the statements of the Afghan foreign minister and the Taliban's promises to sever ties with armed groups and movements such as Al-Qaeda.
In addition, Al-Zawahiri's assassination further complicates discussions held last week between the Taliban and US officials about unfreezing the assets of the Central Bank of Afghanistan.
Assassination: critical timing
After the assassination of Ayman al-Zawahiri, both the foreign minister and the spokesman for the US Defense Department quickly accused the Taliban of violating the Doha Agreement, but the movement accused the United States of violating the national sovereignty of Afghanistan and considered the attack a repetition of failed experiments.
“Al-Zawahiri’s presence in Kabul confirms a close relationship between al-Qaeda and the Taliban, or at least part of the Taliban,” says Nematullah Bezan at the National University of Australia. “In both cases, the Taliban violated the Doha agreement and Washington will consider tough measures against the Taliban and there will be new sanctions. And it is the Afghan people who will pay the price, as happened during the presence of his predecessor bin Laden in Afghanistan in the nineties of the last century” (3).
The assassination of the al-Qaeda leader came at a critical time for the new Afghan government;
Al-Zawahiri was assassinated a few meters from the presidential palace and European embassies, just before the celebration of the one-year anniversary of the withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan.
The United States spoiled the Taliban movement with the euphoria of victory and embarrassed the new government in front of the people and its fighters, and sent a message to everyone that it withdrew from Afghanistan, but it is present in the region and is watching everything closely, and targeting Al-Zawahiri is the first attack that the American president spoke about in the context of the fight against terrorism in Afghanistan. Since the withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan.
A former Afghan intelligence official says: “The United States wants to say that despite its withdrawal from Afghanistan, the war against 'terrorism' continues. It was recently noticed that large numbers of al-Qaeda members went to Afghanistan, which is a matter of concern to many quarters. ".
The Doha agreement stipulates that the United States and its allies will recognize the government that will emerge from the womb of the agreement, but after the Taliban came to power, the departure of the outgoing Afghan president, Muhammad Ashraf Ghani, the capital, Kabul, on the eve of the Taliban’s entry into it, mixed the papers, and Taliban rule became a fait accompli, but after A year has passed since the Taliban has practically lost the international community's desire to recognize its government.
The writer and strategic analyst, Waheed Faqiri, says: "The assassination of the al-Qaeda leader in Afghanistan will complicate the relationship between the United States and the Taliban, at least in the short term, and delay the process of lifting sanctions. In addition, it will create a crisis of confidence among Taliban leaders, and encourage people, especially young people, to leave the country." The presence of al-Zawahiri in Afghanistan is against national interests, and the Taliban movement should think as a state and not as a fighting movement” (4).
The assassination of the al-Qaeda leader at the hands of US intelligence shows that the Taliban did not sever its relationship with al-Qaeda as stipulated in the Doha Agreement, and the assassination puts the relationship of the United States and the Taliban and the fate of the Doha Agreement in a special situation.
A security source says, “It is not yet clear what specific measures the United States will take after the assassination of al-Zawahiri in Kabul, it is possible that the United States will work to impose more sanctions on Taliban leaders, including the re-imposition of blacklists and travel bans. The chances of recognizing the Taliban and the diplomatic maneuvers they are carrying out in the region and the world will be greatly reduced" (5).
The assassination of Al-Zawahiri was very similar to the attack launched by US forces in 2011 near the Pakistani capital, Islamabad, on the home of the founder of Al-Qaeda, Osama bin Laden, and worsened the relationship between the United States and Pakistan, which is an important ally of Washington outside NATO.
Certainly, the assassination of Al-Zawahiri put the Taliban in a very difficult and difficult position and posed challenges to the movement, which has learned to play a double game by using tools from other armed groups and establishing a relationship with them in order to gain more chances of survival and access to financial resources.
The former US envoy to Afghanistan, Zalmay Khalilzad, believes that it was the Haqqani network that provided safe haven to the al-Qaeda leader “It appears that the Haqqani network was aware of al-Zawahiri’s presence in the capital, Kabul, and that other Taliban leaders revealed to the United States the whereabouts of al-Zawahiri”) 6).
Relationship with Al Qaeda
Experts in Afghan affairs believe that the assassination of Ayman al-Zawahiri may help the Taliban to get rid of American and foreign pressure by handing over al-Zawahiri, as happened with the founder of al-Qaeda, Osama bin Laden (Getty)
The targeting of Ayman al-Zawahiri by US intelligence in the capital, Kabul, will lead to tension and mistrust between the Taliban and al-Qaeda, which have had close relations that lasted for three decades.
Despite the pressures of the United States and a number of Islamic countries, the Islamic Emirate did not announce the severing of its relationship with Al-Qaeda, despite its commitment in the Doha negotiations that it would fight terrorism and would not allow the use of Afghan territory against others.
Al-Qaeda will hold the Taliban movement responsible for al-Zawahiri’s assassination on the grounds that it provides him with protection and security. A former security source says: “It cannot be certain that the movement was involved in al-Zawahiri’s assassination. The Taliban movement, and Al-Zawahiri’s successor will rethink the mechanisms of the relationship with the Taliban” (7).
Experts in Afghan affairs believe that the assassination of Ayman al-Zawahiri may help the Taliban movement to get rid of American and foreign pressure by handing over al-Zawahiri, as happened with the founder of Al-Qaeda, Osama bin Laden, during the Taliban’s rule in the 1990s, and would justify the repudiation of the obligation to provide a safe haven for the Caliph. Al-Zawahiri.
a summary
Al-Zawahiri's death could affect the course of events in Afghanistan, and if it is proven that a tip-off from within the movement led to the revelation of Al-Zawahiri's sanctuary, this will cast a heavy shadow on the relationship between the Taliban and Al-Qaeda.
This may be a beginning for the Taliban to get rid of the burden of a costly relationship that binds them in their quest for international recognition and a solution to the worsening problem of governance in Afghanistan.
The US President did not refer to coordination with the Taliban in the assassination, and the two sides agreed in the Doha agreement to "fight terrorism and coordinate before carrying out any military operation in Afghanistan", and not informing the Afghan government of the operation reflects the continuing crisis of confidence between the United States and the Taliban movement.
The movement deliberately condemned the US air raid without addressing the target, and this is not expected to have drastic effects on the Doha agreement, especially with an American assertion that there is a legal basis for the operation that targeted al-Zawahiri, and that the United States wants to continue dialogue with the Taliban and expects them to abide by the Doha agreement. .
This coincides with the movement's desire for international recognition and the release of funds frozen in the United States.
Al-Zawahiri's assassination may not have the same impact as the assassination of bin Laden, but experts believe it marks "the end of the founding generation of al-Qaeda, and may lead to the emergence of a new generation of jihadists."
The assassination carried a clear American message that the United States still had a long hand in the region despite its withdrawal, which would have an impact on the nature of al-Qaeda's movements in Afghanistan in the region and its assessment of the American presence.
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This article is taken from Al Jazeera Center for Studies.