The surging power is "expanding"
—— Correctly understand and grasp the strategic goals and practical approaches to achieve common prosperity (middle)
Our research team
Under the new development stage and complex situation, what is the path to achieve common prosperity?
Starting from my country's current reality, in addition to continuing to expand the "cake" of social wealth and improving the basic system of three distributions, an important starting point should be to accelerate the formation of a larger-scale and higher-quality middle-income group.
The rich people in the country care about the rich people.
General Secretary Xi Jinping has repeatedly emphasized that "expanding the size of the middle-income group should be an important policy goal", which contains the surging power to promote the common prosperity of all people and is closely related to everyone.
Looking back at the beginning of reform and opening up, encouraging some people to get rich first, mobilized the enthusiasm of hundreds of millions of people for production, and countless people showed their wisdom and skills, changed their own destiny, and changed the destiny of the times, and promoted an ancient agricultural country to become a productive country. The country with the longest history of extremely dynamic business and rapid economic growth.
Walking on the road of Chinese-style modernization, in another historical stage of "rich first and then rich", let the vitality of all labor, knowledge, technology, management and capital burst out, and let all the sources of social wealth flow fully, from the people. This valuable historical experience will also illuminate the future journey of all people towards common prosperity.
The effect of "expanding China" is a concrete manifestation of the substantive progress of common prosperity
The 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China made a "two-stage" strategic arrangement for the second centenary goal: in the first stage, "people's life will be more affluent, the proportion of middle-income groups will be significantly increased, and the urban-rural development gap and the gap in residents' living standards will be significantly narrowed. , the equalization of basic public services has been basically achieved, and solid progress has been made in the common prosperity of all the people.” In the second stage, the common prosperity of all the people has been basically realized.
The Fifth Plenary Session of the 19th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China further proposed that during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, "focus on increasing the income of low-income groups and expand the middle-income group", and by 2035 "the middle-income group will significantly expand".
It can be said that the continuous expansion of the middle-income group is a concrete manifestation of solidly promoting common prosperity to achieve more obvious and substantive progress.
So, if the middle-income group is portrayed, what are the characteristics of this group?
Experts believe that, generally speaking, the middle-income group refers to the group in the economy with a middle-level income and a relatively well-off life. Their income level and consumption level are relatively stable, and most of them have higher human skills and higher education levels. , engaged in relatively professional work.
Wang Yiming, vice chairman of the China Center for International Economic Exchanges, pointed out that from the perspective of urban and rural areas, the urban household population accounts for about 3/4 of the middle-income group in my country, and the rural residents and agricultural transfer population account for about 1/4.
From a regional perspective, the regional distribution of the middle-income group is roughly consistent with the level of economic development. About 60% of the middle-income group is located in the eastern region, while only 40% in the central and western regions.
According to Zhang Zhanbin, Dean of the School of Marxism at the Central Party School (National School of Administration), the middle-income group is no longer a concept that can be accurately defined, explained and described based on a single indicator of "income", but a concept that includes income level, quality of life, The concept of comprehensive indicators of occupation, national quality, income distribution system and social structural characteristics.
Data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that in the past 20 years, the size of my country's middle-income group has increased by more than 54 times, and now there are more than 400 million people and about 140 million families.
In terms of scale, my country undoubtedly has the largest and most growing middle-income group in the world; but in terms of proportion, based on the base of 1.4 billion people, the middle-income population accounts for less than 30%, which is significantly lower than that of developed countries by 50%. % to 75%, there is still a big gap from the olive-shaped distribution structure.
From a pyramid-shaped distribution structure with a large scale of low-income groups and a small proportion of middle- and high-income groups to a flat-type distribution structure with common prosperity, it is inevitable to experience an olive-shaped distribution structure in which the scale and proportion of middle-income groups continue to expand.
Historically, from the 1920s to the mid-1960s, developed countries in Europe and the United States successively entered a mass consumption society dominated by the middle-income class, which not only changed the long-term situation of overproduction and underconsumption, but also greatly promoted scientific and technological progress. wealth growth.
Japan and the "Asian Tigers" have cultivated a large middle-income group with measures such as the "National Income Multiplication Plan", the plan to support small and medium-sized enterprises, and the improvement of social security. The huge pulling effect of economy and industrialization has achieved economic take-off through the close combination of expanding exports and expanding domestic demand.
The expansion of the middle-income group means the continuous optimization of the social wealth distribution pattern and the continuous improvement of social justice.
Countries that have also experienced economic take-off, whether their growth dividends are enjoyed by a small number of people or benefit the public, different countries have chosen different paths.
Only those countries that have achieved the expansion of the middle-income group and the narrowing of the income gap over a long period of time will be able to overcome the middle-income trap and achieve sustainable economic growth and social prosperity.
The experience and lessons are worthy of our study and reference.
The expansion of the middle-income group means that the consumption momentum is more surging.
The marginal propensity to consume of the middle-income group is relatively high, which will have a significant stimulating effect on consumption growth.
From the actual situation, the growing middle-income group can expand residents' consumption, and promote technological innovation and industrial upgrading through consumption upgrading, forming a virtuous circle of income increase-consumption upgrading-industry optimization-economic growth-people's livelihood improvement. The development pattern, giving full play to the advantages of my country's super-large economy, and promoting the quality of life of urban and rural residents into a new realm all have a strong supporting role.
The expansion of the middle-income group means that the "stabilizer" of the social structure and the "buffer layer" of social contradictions are more substantial and stable.
Those who have perseverance have perseverance.
In the olive-shaped social structure, the middle-income group with relatively stable occupation, income, consumption capacity and production capacity has the enthusiasm to consciously maintain social stability, and can often actively alleviate many contradictions and confrontations in the social field. The whole society establishes a good image and exemplary role of hard work and hard work, and maintains long-term economic and social stability from various aspects.
Accurately "expanding the middle-income group", allowing more low-income people to enter the ranks of the middle-income group
At present, expanding the middle-income group is both a must and a solid foundation.
Based on a solid foundation of comprehensive national strength, the "14th Five-Year Plan" period is a critical period for my country to become a high-income country. Many experts and scholars have suggested that the middle-income group should be doubled.
Liu Shijin, deputy director of the Economic Committee of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference and former deputy director of the Development Research Center of the State Council, proposed to use 10 to 15 years, that is, from 2030 to 2035, to promote the middle-income group to reach 800 million to 900 million people, accounting for 800 million to 900 million people. about 60% of the total population.
Wang Yiming judged from various conditions that by 2035, my country will achieve a doubling of the middle-income group, and it is achievable to expand the size of the middle-income group from the current 400 million to 800 million.
Some areas are exploring the way first.
For example, as a demonstration area for high-quality development and construction of common prosperity in my country, Zhejiang Province proposed in its "expansion" and "lowering" action plan that by 2025, the proportion of households in Zhejiang with an annual disposable income of 100,000 to 500,000 yuan should be Reach 80%, and the proportion of the 200,000-600,000 yuan group should reach 45%.
Some provinces have also clearly put forward the goal of doubling the middle-income group. For example, Anhui Province proposed to "adhere to the goal of common prosperity and promote the project of doubling the middle-income group". Income Group Multiplication Action Plan".
So, who are the most likely potential middle-income groups?
Li Shi, a professor at Zhejiang University, believes that the low-income population is huge, and a considerable number of them have an income that is not much different from the lower limit for defining middle-income, and some of them are relatively poor.
"Therefore, we should identify those low-income groups with the greatest potential to become middle-income earners, and adopt more targeted support policies for this group." We have seen that the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the 2035 Vision Outline It is proposed to "continuously increase the proportion of middle-income groups with a focus on graduates from colleges and vocational colleges, skilled laborers, and migrant workers."
The "Opinions of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council on Supporting Zhejiang's High-quality Development and Construction of a Common Prosperity Demonstration Zone" proposes to "implement the action plan to expand the middle-income group, and stimulate the vitality of key groups such as skilled talents, scientific researchers, small and micro entrepreneurs, and high-quality farmers."
Some local plans can also be used as a reference.
For example, Guangdong Province put forward in its "Government Work Report" this year, "to promote more college graduates, skilled workers, small and medium-sized business owners and individual industrial and commercial households, migrant workers in cities, and grass-roots front-line personnel to enter the middle-income group."
Experts generally believe that migrant workers are the key groups that need to be paid more attention to in the future expansion of middle-income groups.
Yang Weimin, member of the Standing Committee of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference and deputy director of the Economic Committee, believes that the agricultural transfer population who has been employed for a long time in cities is the largest and closest to the middle-income group.
According to the data of the "2020 Migrant Workers Monitoring and Investigation Report", the total number of migrant workers in my country is 286 million. If these people can be turned into middle-income groups, it will be of great significance.
There is consensus, foundation, and goals. The key is to grasp the key points and implement precise policies to promote more low-income people to enter the ranks of middle-income groups.
First, keep economic growth within a reasonable range, and strive to promote resident income growth and economic growth in sync.
Productivity is highly developed, social wealth is prosperous, and the macroeconomic environment continues to be stable, and the size of the middle-income group can continue to expand.
Especially in the face of the unprecedented changes in the world in a century and the impact of the epidemic of the century, we must continue to strengthen the economic foundation and concentrate on running our own affairs. The most important thing at present is to stabilize the macroeconomic market.
In the recent period, the central government has intensively issued various policies and guidelines for stabilizing the economy, clearly requiring all regions and departments to take responsibility and speed up their implementation.
In the work of "six stability" and "six guarantees", the first "stability" is to stabilize employment, the first "guarantee" is to ensure the employment of residents, and stable growth is mainly to stabilize employment.
my country is a large country with a population of more than 1.4 billion, with a labor force of nearly 900 million, more than the total working-age population of all developed countries in the world. If we stabilize the economy, achieve relatively full employment, and steadily increase the income of residents, we can create wealth, increase income, and improve. People's livelihood and economic growth also have solid support.
The key to stabilizing employment lies in stabilizing market players. my country's small, medium and micro enterprises and individual industrial and commercial households are large in number and wide in scope, and are the micro-foundation of the economy. Recently, production and operation have encountered many difficulties.
In this regard, the finance, financial and other departments and governments at all levels should strengthen the measures to reduce the burden and help these market entities to tide over the difficulties and consolidate the foundation for the stable operation of the economy.
Second, expand human capital investment so that more ordinary workers can enter the middle-income group through their own efforts.
Improving human capital conditions plays a vital role in improving total factor productivity, increasing income, expanding the size of the middle-income group, and achieving common prosperity, and is also more conducive to the all-round development of human beings.
Liu Shangxi, president of the Chinese Academy of Fiscal Sciences, believes that "common" means fairness and everyone has a share; "prosperity" refers to economic efficiency, and without efficiency, there is no wealth at all.
"What can combine the two is human ability. If you only have the ability to do simple work, it can only be low efficiency and low income; if you have the ability to do creative work, such as the ability to create inventions, you will naturally Bring high efficiency and high income. If the ability of social members is generally improved, the collective ability gap is eliminated, everyone has the opportunity to move upward, and social equity and efficiency will naturally merge.”
If education is prosperous, the country will be prosperous, and if education is strong, the country will be strong.
General Secretary Xi Jinping proposed that it is necessary to "create more inclusive and fair conditions for the people to improve their education levels and enhance their development capabilities, smooth the upward mobility channels, create opportunities for more people to get rich, and form a development environment in which everyone participates." In the spirit of the instruction, it is necessary to deepen education reform, promote education fairness, and improve the quality of higher education.
Vocational skills training and improving the treatment of skilled workers are important channels for industrial workers to enter the middle-income group. It is necessary to enhance the adaptability of vocational education, accelerate the construction of a modern vocational education system, and cultivate more high-quality technical and skilled talents and skilled craftsmen.
Third, promote a new type of urbanization with people as the core, and smooth the upward flow channels.
The agricultural transfer population has stabilized employment and settlement in cities, which will help expand the middle-income group.
By 2021, the urbanization rate of the permanent resident population in my country will reach 64.72%, and the urbanization rate of the registered population will increase to 46.7%.
This is the first time that the gap between the two urbanization rates has narrowed since the 13th Five-Year Plan, but there is still a large gap between the two.
At present, urbanization has entered the "second half", but there are still some basic public services that have not yet fully covered the resident population transferred to the city.
Recently, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the "14th Five-Year Plan for New Urbanization Implementation Plan", which clearly relaxes the restrictions on settlement except for individual megacities. The next step is to increase efforts to eliminate the shortcomings of the system and mechanism, and to speed up the equalization of basic public services. , to build a rational, just, smooth and orderly social mobility pattern to prevent the solidification of social classes.
Fourth, improve the mechanism for reasonable wage growth, and increase the property income of urban and rural residents through multiple channels.
How can people's pockets be fuller?
On the one hand, it is necessary to increase the proportion of labor remuneration in the primary distribution, and improve the mechanism for reasonable wage growth.
On the other hand, it is necessary to actively expand the property income channels of urban and rural residents, and explore to increase the factor income of low- and middle-income groups through the right to use land, capital and other factors and the right to income.
Encourage enterprises to carry out employee stock ownership plans, innovate more financial products that meet the needs of family wealth management, improve the dividend distribution system for listed companies, and create a more open and transparent investment market environment.
Accelerate the introduction of rural collective construction land into the market and the transfer of homesteads to increase farmers' property income; promote the revitalization of rural industries based on local characteristic resources, and improve the mechanism for linking interests, so that farmers can share more of the industry's value-added benefits.
In addition, it is necessary to appropriately increase the wages of civil servants, especially grass-roots front-line civil servants and grass-roots employees of state-owned enterprises and institutions; protect property rights and intellectual property rights, protect legal wealth, and enhance the people's sense of property security.
What needs to be emphasized is that to expand the middle-income group, we must not only expand the increment, but also stabilize the stock, and stabilize the size of the existing middle-income group.
For small and medium-sized business owners and individual industrial and commercial households, they are an important group of entrepreneurs to become rich, but their income levels are easily affected by economic fluctuations and external shocks. It is necessary to continuously improve the business environment, reduce the burden of taxes and fees, optimize financial services, and help. They operate stably, continue to increase their income, and try their best to prevent them from slipping out of the middle-income group due to risk shocks.
For the elderly, the income after retirement will decrease, and the pension and medical expenses will increase, which may slide from the middle-income group to the low-income group, and the pressure of family pension will also affect the middle-income group of working age.
This requires a fairer and more sustainable social security system, improving basic pension systems for urban workers, basic pensions for urban and rural residents, urban basic medical care, unemployment, work-related injury, maternity and other insurance systems, improving the social assistance system, and improving the level of social welfare.
Focus on "expanding China" and enhance the systematic, holistic and synergistic reforms
Common prosperity is a long-term goal. It cannot be achieved overnight, nor can it go hand in hand. It is necessary to fully estimate its long-term nature, arduousness, and complexity. To do it well, we cannot wait or rush.
It needs to be clear that "adjusting higher, expanding middle, and lowering" is not to rob the rich and help the poor, and to bring high-income people back to the ranks of middle-income people; it is also necessary to resolutely prevent falling into the trap of "welfareism" to raise lazy people.
To promote more low-income people to enter the ranks of middle-income groups, we must learn from international experience and lessons and combine my country's actual situation, clarify and handle several groups of relationships, and enhance the systemic, holistic and synergistic nature of the reform.
The first is the relationship between the increase in the income of laborers and the increase in labor costs of enterprises.
During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, my country will accelerate the training of a large number of high-quality laborers and technical and skilled personnel, and at the same time promote the improvement of the treatment of skilled personnel, and promote 200 million skilled laborers to become middle-income groups.
However, for enterprises, the increase in the income of skilled workers will increase the labor cost of the enterprise; if the enterprise does not develop well, the increase in the income of employees will also become a source of no water.
To eliminate this "seesaw" effect, it is necessary to build a harmonious labor relationship through multiple means, so as to take into account labor income and enterprise production, take into account the quality of employment and industrial upgrading, and take into account the decision of the salary market and the guarantee of basic income.
The second is the relationship between the expansion of flexible employment groups and the protection of labor rights and interests.
To expand the middle-income group, we must not only pay attention to the increase in their income, but also strengthen the protection of labor rights and interests.
At present, there are more than 200 million people in my country's flexible employment, which has the characteristics of flexibility, short-term, fluidity and non-contractuality. Some practitioners generally feel that "income is unstable", "guarantee is unstable", and "long-term planning cannot be formed". and "low social identity", it is necessary to improve laws and regulations and various supporting policies, effectively safeguard the labor security rights and interests of workers in the new employment form, and enhance the stability of their income and security.
The third is the relationship between technological progress and the widening income gap.
The new round of technological revolution and industrial transformation has strongly promoted economic development, increased the relative demand for high-skilled people in the labor market, and may further exacerbate wage income inequality.
The income growth rate of well-educated workers who are adaptable to new technologies has increased significantly, while workers who have no higher education and are engaged in industries that are easily replaced by new technologies are more likely to lose their jobs or fall into stagnant income growth.
This kind of labor market friction cannot be left to the survival of the fittest by market forces. It is necessary to properly handle the relationship between fairness and efficiency, the market and the government, and through education, training, transfer payments and other means, strive to promote the synchronization of residents’ income growth with economic growth and the improvement of labor remuneration. in tandem with increases in labor productivity.
Fourth, the relationship between material abundance and spiritual abundance.
Although the middle-income group is divided by income as the standard, it is not the only standard by income.
Promoting common prosperity and promoting all-round development of people are highly unified.
General Secretary Xi Jinping pointed out, "What we mean by common prosperity is the common prosperity of all the people, and the prosperity of the people's material and spiritual lives."
It is necessary to strengthen the guidance of socialist core values, strengthen patriotism, collectivism, and socialist education, develop public cultural undertakings, improve the public cultural service system, and continuously meet the diverse, multi-level, and multi-faceted spiritual and cultural needs of the people.
How far are we from an "olive" society?
The answer is that the blueprint has already been drawn. By 2035, the common prosperity of all people will achieve more obvious and substantial progress, and basic public services will be equalized; The gap narrowed to a reasonable range.
Although the road is long, the journey will come; although the task is difficult, it will be done.
Fundamentally, we have the strong leadership of the Communist Party of China, the significant advantages of the socialist system with Chinese characteristics, the solid foundation for sustained and rapid development and accumulation, a long-term stable social environment, and the spiritual strength of self-confidence and self-improvement.
Always adhere to the people-centered development idea, do one thing after another, and do it year after year, and it will definitely promote more people to enter the middle-income group and make solid progress towards the goal of common prosperity.
(Members of the research team: reporter Qi Dongxiang Zeng Jinhua Xiong Liyinsheng)