Occupied Jerusalem

- Political and military analysts and specialists in Israeli affairs have unanimously agreed that the military operation in Gaza - which the Israeli army called "the truthful dawn" - comes in the context of the competition for the Knesset elections and the crisis of governance in Israel, in an attempt by Acting Prime Minister Yair Lapid and Defense Minister Benny Gantz , in order to search for a victory image that precedes the deduction of the fund.

Like the "image of victory" that former Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu searched for through the military operation "The Keeper of the Fences" in May 2021, analysts and researchers in Israeli affairs said that today's operation "is still murky, and will remain so, as it is unpredictable." The repercussions of the assassination of the occupation leader in the Al-Quds Brigades, Tayseer Al-Jabari.”

Analysts estimate that the escalation and exchange of blows and attacks between the resistance factions and the Israeli occupation army may last several days, and they believe that the developments and results of the military operation on the Strip - which targets the Islamic Jihad movement and "Al-Quds Brigades" - will have repercussions on the political scene and the election results and will determine the features of the Israeli government. coming.

# Friday_Martyrs


, a side of the funeral of the martyrs of the Israeli aggression on the Gaza Strip pic.twitter.com/VtNPovtq6O

— Shehab News Agency (@ShehabAgency) August 5, 2022

scenarios and implications

Ignoring the political developments in Israel and the trend for a fifth election in less than 4 years, Eyal Alima, an analyst for military and security affairs on Israeli television (Kan), believes that the security services planned in advance for such an operation, whether to assassinate military leaders in the "Al-Quds Brigades", Or with the aim of nullifying the immediate threats from the Strip and preventing the resistance factions from imposing a new equation on the Gaza front.

Alima - in his talk to Al Jazeera Net - estimates that the military operation, which comes as a lesson learned and a continuation of the repercussions of the "guardian of the fences" battle, may last several days, and may extend and expand if Hamas joins, in the event of large numbers of deaths and civilian casualties on the Israeli sides. and the Palestinians, and the factions suffered heavy losses, knowing that the resistance possesses an arsenal of long-range missiles and specific weapons that threaten the Israeli depth.

The military affairs analyst explains that the Israeli security establishment, which deliberately deceived and evaded during the days of the state of emergency, prepared and prepared for all scenarios, whether with the expansion of the military operation and the exchange of blows and attacks with the resistance on the Gaza front until Hamas joined the war, and Tel Aviv does not rule out the scenario of Palestinian factions launching missiles From southern Lebanon to the Galilee.

In light of the Israeli incitement against the Islamic Jihad movement and the claim that it is Iran’s arm in Gaza and the West Bank, Alima reduced the possibility of Hezbollah joining the war and igniting the northern front with Lebanon, but he does not rule out, if events develop, that Hezbollah will carry out specific provocative operations on the northern front or Attempting to target the "Karesh" gas platforms.

#OpenCoverage - Israeli raids and military operation in the #Gaza Strip and the Palestinian factions respond https://t.co/QI0RwXyxAT

- Al Jazeera (@AJArabic) August 5, 2022

security and political

The researcher in Israeli affairs, Antoine Shalhat, asserts that the main motive for the military campaign against Gaza is the Knesset elections and the impasse in government in Israel. Lapid, who did not come from a security background, aims to appear as a political and security leader, alongside Gantz;

To promote Israeli society as "successful security leaders".

The researcher in the Israeli affairs underestimates the possibility of the Israeli government being drawn into the military campaign against Gaza because of the elections on the horizon, pointing out that the criticisms that reached the point of ridicule by the opposition parties and even the Israeli public during the days of the state of emergency declared by the government on the border with Gaza;

The defense was out for the military campaign.

Shalhat believes in his speech to Al Jazeera Net that since the war on Lebanon in 2006, any Israeli prime minister has refrained from going out to a deliberate and planned war, with clear features and goals, since all the battles that Israel fought with the Arab and Palestinian resistance - most notably the "guardian of the fences" operation - were not resolved. The cycle of tension and conflict remained open.

Hebrew sources: A missile fired from Gaza directly hit a house in Ashkelon.

pic.twitter.com/r49dimP0MH

— Shehab News Agency (@ShehabAgency) August 5, 2022

Dilemma and Projections

The researcher in Israeli affairs explains that the problem with such military operations is that Israel knows how to start, and here Tel Aviv was surprising and used the element of surprise and fired, but it does not know how to end, and therefore the military operations and their repercussions and projections on the partisan, political, electoral and even security arena remain a dilemma for for Israel.

Shalhat indicated that Israel fears that the military operation will develop and expand in the event that the Palestinian resistance factions carry out qualitative operations or launch long-range missiles that will hit Tel Aviv and major gatherings in the Israeli depth.

Shalhat says that "the conflict will remain open, as the image of victory that Israel is looking for will remain blurry, and therefore if the resistance's response is painful for Israel, it will entail heavy costs for Lapid and Gantz in the upcoming elections."


Elections and coalitions

And regarding the relationship between the 25th Knesset elections that will be held on the first of next November and the military operation that the Israeli army called “the truthful dawn”;

Political analyst and specialist in Israeli affairs, Muhammad Majadleh, believes that "the most important thing is that this process is being led by Lapid and Gantz with the aim of mobilizing and mobilizing the Israeli political arena and trying to win over the Israeli voter."

On this basis, and in the context of the frantic electoral race, Majadleh tells Al Jazeera Net that "the right-wing parties, the opposition and Netanyahu rushed to support the military operation even before the Bank of Goals was revealed, in order to ensure superiority in the electoral political scene, and there are internal differences in the government and a clear competition between Gantz and Lapid." About the security figure who will run the elections.

The political analyst explained that this battle was imposed on the political level due to the developments of the security events on the border with Gaza and the criticism of the opposition that came in the context of the electoral campaign, as it was unlikely that the government would be drawn into the military operation if Israel was not living in an election climate.

Despite the political competition between the Jewish and Zionist parties that comes in the context of the Knesset elections, the specialist in Israeli affairs says, "It became clear that the military level, the intelligence services, and the security establishment were ready for such an operation and with prior planning to assassinate leaders in the Al-Quds Brigades."

Despite the estimates that the electoral competition was behind such a military operation against Gaza, Majadela believes that everything is related to how Israel will exit the war on Gaza, as the results of the military operation will have the greatest impact on determining the results of the Knesset elections and determining the features of the next Israeli government coalition.