After the American efforts to eliminate him
Al-Zawahiri's death impedes the planning and implementation of actual terrorist attacks
The US President announces from the balcony of the White House the death of the leader of "Al-Qaeda".
Reuters
Former al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri.
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A picture of the house where al-Zawahiri was staying.
AFP
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US President Joe Biden announced that a drone strike by US forces killed al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri over the weekend.
What was the size of the role that al-Zawahiri played in the organization?
In an analysis published by the American Council on Foreign Relations, American writer and expert Bruce Hoffman says that Al-Zawahiri was very important to Al-Qaeda in the decade following the killing of the former Al-Qaeda leader, Osama bin Laden.
It has maintained the cohesion of the organization to pursue its local and regional agendas.
Although al-Qaeda affiliates enjoyed tremendous independence, they adhered to the organization's ideology and adhered to al-Zawahiri's strategy, and this situation will continue.
Hoffman saw that the next step for al-Qaeda is to focus on the "caliphate plan," noting that Saif al-Adl, one of al-Qaeda's most prominent leaders for a long time, is the most likely candidate to succeed al-Zawahiri.
Saif al-Adl, a former officer in a special operations unit in the Egyptian army, played an important role in the bombing of the two American embassies in Nairobi, the capital of Kenya, and in Dar es Salaam, the former capital of Tanzania, and was the mastermind of the failed “al-Qaeda” campaign in Saudi Arabia in 2003. He taught and directed Hamza Bin Laden, Osama's son, is the famous heir as the "emir of al-Qaeda", and in recent years he has been supervising al-Qaeda's operations in Syria.
It is expected that Saif al-Adl will be active in uniting the "Al-Qaeda" organization and its branches.
Finally, in a few days, Al Qaeda will celebrate its 34th anniversary.
A terrorist organization cannot survive for more than three decades by relying on a single leader.
The US State Department's list of terrorist groups currently contains four times more groups that share the ideology of al-Qaeda than it did at the time of the September 11, 2001 attacks. Therefore, one way or another, the war declared by bin Laden more than a quarter century ago will continue at a certain level.
Author Bruce Hoffman, professor at Edmund A. College, said:
Of Foreign Affairs at Georgetown University, where he directs the Center for Security Studies and the Security Studies Program, al-Zawahiri's residence in the Afghan capital Kabul at the time of his death is of great importance, as it indicates that he was staying there with the knowledge of the Taliban.
This destroys the allegations of the "Taliban" that it has severed its relationship with "Al-Qaeda", and confirms that the group is only a close partner and ally.
Al-Zawahiri was not living in a cave in a remote village on the border with Pakistan, but in a palace in a part of Kabul where Western diplomats live.
He was clearly a close friend of the Taliban and is treated with great esteem.
This will undermine the Taliban's efforts to negotiate with the United States the release of $9 billion in assets frozen in Washington.
With regard to the extent of the danger posed by Al-Qaeda compared to other groups, Hoffman said that Al-Qaeda under the leadership of Al-Zawahiri was playing a long game, and was content to work quietly to rebuild and regroup the organization, while the world focused on defeating the organization. ISIS and the destruction of its caliphate.
Al-Zawahiri's strategy was divided into two parts. First, he left ISIS to be the focus of all the attention of the United States and its allies, while Al-Qaeda directed its power to the continuation of the organization that has existed for more than three decades.
The second aspect was the portrayal of Al-Qaeda as an organization that includes "moderate militants", as a more reliable and not ephemeral force compared to the more reckless and violent ISIS.
The correctness of Al-Zawahiri's quiet strategy was confirmed by the patience and perseverance that brought the Taliban back to power in Afghanistan.
Therefore, although al-Qaeda has been less active than its competitors or even its affiliates, this does not mean that it has renounced or abandoned terrorism.
Regarding the relationship of the air strike to the Biden administration's approach to counterterrorism, Hoffman said that al-Zawahiri stood on his balcony daily in broad daylight.
The American intelligence services tracked the movement of his wife, daughters and grandchildren to the palace in a Kabul neighborhood.
Then I met Al-Zawahiri when he came to join them.
Hoffman pointed out that it does not mean that the intelligence work or the strike itself was an easy job, but rather because al-Zawahiri and his family were doing these things clearly for everyone, and this indicates how safe they and the Taliban movement feel.
Hoffman concluded his analysis by saying that the killing of Al-Zawahiri is indeed wonderful news, but it does not yet prove the effectiveness of Biden's future strategy to combat terrorism.
This would be an intelligence success of a different magnitude if current US counterterrorism efforts in Afghanistan also effectively succeeded in impeding the planning and execution of actual terrorist attacks.
On the other hand, he adds, the strike against al-Zawahiri invalidates the allegations of critics who said last week, on the 75th anniversary of the founding of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), that it was a mistake for the agency to focus on counter-terrorism and the major risks after the September 11 attacks and not Demonstrate sufficient focus on gathering intelligence that is important to the daily lives of citizens.
The Central Intelligence Agency's pivotal role in the killing of bin Laden and al-Zawahiri demonstrates the unparalleled strengths and capabilities of the agency and the broader intelligence community.
typical hit
A US official said that Al-Zawahiri's strike would be difficult to replicate across Afghanistan without the networks of intelligence men that have thrived during the 20-year American presence.
"This was an exemplary strike," said Washington-based counterterrorism analyst Neha Ansari, who focuses on drone warfare.
She added that the operation required good intelligence, and that countries likely allowed the United States the right to fly drones through their airspace, and a specific location.
But she stressed that the question of whether these ideal conditions will continue remains an open question.
An example of the difficulty of collecting intelligence in Afghanistan came in 2015 when thousands of US-led forces were on the ground, when US military officials were surprised to discover a massive Al-Qaeda training camp in the southern province of Kandahar.
The CIA's use of drones to strike al-Zawahiri indicates a secret overflight agreement with a neighboring country, something the US military does not have.
The CIA declined to comment on the operation.
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