[Global Times-Global Network Reporter Xing Xiaojing] Whether US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi will visit Taiwan tonight as the media said has attracted widespread attention from the outside world.

On the 2nd, a Taiwanese scholar of international affairs said in an interview with a reporter from the Global Times that the possibility of Pelosi's visit to Taiwan is "about 80%", and the incident has triggered the "fourth Taiwan Strait crisis".

Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Hua Chunying reiterated at a regular press conference on the 2nd that the United States should give up any attempt to play the "Taiwan card", match its words with deeds, strictly abide by the one-China principle and implement the three Sino-US joint communiques.

If the U.S. goes its own way, the U.S. will be responsible for all serious consequences.

　　Lin Quanzhong (LIM, John Chuan-tiong), executive director of the Center for Japanese Studies at Wuhan University and a professor at the Institute of International Studies from Taiwan, has long-term living and research experience in three places on both sides of the Taiwan Strait, and has an in-depth observation of the situation in the Taiwan Strait.

"I think Pelosi's planned 'visit to Taiwan' has triggered the fourth Taiwan Strait crisis!" Lin Quanzhong told the Global Times reporter that although Pelosi has not officially announced a 'visit to Taiwan' so far, the incident The situation in the Taiwan Strait has been the most severe since the third Taiwan Strait crisis in 1996, and both China and the United States have raised the importance of it to an unprecedented level.

The Biden administration is facing the biggest diplomatic crisis in Sino-U.S. relations since taking office.

Lin Quanzhong also said that the above is purely his personal opinion.

　　According to media summary, after 1949, the two sides of the Taiwan Strait have experienced three "Taiwan Strait crises".

The first occurred in 1954-1955.

In December 1954, the United States signed the so-called "mutual defense treaty" with the Taiwan authorities, placing China's Taiwan Province under the "protection" of the United States.

The US government's wrong policy of continuing to interfere in China's internal affairs has created a prolonged tense confrontation in the Taiwan Strait. The Taiwan issue has since become a major dispute between China and the US.

On January 18, 1955, the three armies of the East China Military Region of the Chinese People's Liberation Army cooperated to launch an offensive operation on Jiangshan Island in the east of Zhejiang Province, which was held by the Kuomintang army.

After less than a day of fighting, the PLA occupied the island, Yijiangshan Island commander Wang Shengming was killed, and deputy commander Wang Fubi was captured.

　　The second "Taiwan Strait Crisis" is the famous "Kinmen Artillery Battle". In a narrow sense, the "Kinmen Artillery Battle" refers to a battle that took place in and around Kinmen between August 23 and October 5, 1958.

The whole shelling lasted from August 23, 1958 to December 31, 1978.

　　The third "Taiwan Strait Crisis" was the tense situation in the Taiwan Strait from 1995 to 1996 when the United States allowed the then leader of the Taiwan authorities, Lee Teng-hui, to visit the United States.

In July 1995 and March 1996, China conducted two large-scale live missile launch exercises and postponed the second round of "Wang-Gu Talks".

China's measures shocked the United States and defended its national sovereignty and territorial integrity.

　　How likely is Pelosi to visit Taiwan?

Lin Quanzhong believes that "about 80%", because the itinerary of his "Asian trip" is not set by the US government, but mainly by Pelosi himself.

The reason for retaining 20% ​​is that the strong reaction from China may prompt Pelosi to consider the risks of visiting Taiwan.

Lin Quanzhong also said that China and the United States need to establish an effective management and control mechanism for the Taiwan Strait crisis.

　　Lin Quanzhong has visited the Grand Hyatt Taipei Hotel where Pelosi is rumored to be staying many times. He told the Global Times reporter that the hotel is very close to the Taipei City Government, about a 5-minute walk, and there are parks and squares in front of it. There are not too many dense buildings.

Tsai Ing-wen, Ma Ying-jeou and others often hold meetings here, so the security staff are very familiar with the hotel's situation.

At present, if Pelosi arrives in Taiwan, the probability of staying at the Grand Hyatt is higher.

　　Lin Quanzhong also revealed that generally speaking, you don't need to enter the hotel, you can observe whether there will be dignitaries staying on the same day across the road.

Because a group of plainclothes will appear near the hotel in advance to confirm whether there are suspicious people or things, their expressions, positions and actions are different from ordinary guests, and you can tell at a glance.

In addition, in addition to Taipei Songshan Airport, Pelosi may also arrive in Taiwan from Taichung Qingquangang Airport, where US congressmen also arrived from there.

　　So, if Pelosi visits Taiwan, will Japan, as an ally of the United States, follow suit on the Taiwan issue?

Lin Quanzhong told the Global Times reporter that in the short term, it won't happen. The Chinese side's reaction to Pelosi's planned "Taiwan visit" is quite strong. Even if Pelosi does make the trip, the Chinese side's strong reaction will definitely Other countries have a deterrent effect, and no one will follow suit in the short term.

As for the future situation, it is still unclear, and it is too early to judge Japan's trend on the Taiwan issue.

　　Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Hua Chunying reiterated at a regular press conference on the 2nd that the history of the Taiwan issue is clear, and the fact and current situation that both sides of the Taiwan Strait belong to one China are clear.

We firmly oppose "Taiwan independence" separatism and interference by external forces, and will never leave any space for "Taiwan independence" forces in any form.

The position of the Chinese government and the Chinese people on the Taiwan issue has been consistent. Resolutely safeguarding China's sovereignty, security and territorial integrity is the firm will of the more than 1.4 billion Chinese people, and realizing the complete reunification of the motherland is the common aspiration of all Chinese sons and daughters.