Will Nancy Pelosi set foot on the island of Taiwan?

The question agitates China and surrounds the entire Asian tour of the Speaker of the American House of Representatives, while the unease is palpable in Washington.

After Singapore, the Democrat arrived in Malaysia on Tuesday.

Its itinerary also includes stages in South Korea and Japan, and the vagueness is deliberately maintained around a stopover in Taiwan.

Several international press titles claim that a visit is well planned, the Financial Times referring to a meeting between Nancy Pelosi and the president of Taiwan on Wednesday.

Taiwanese newspaper Liberty Times quoted unnamed sources as saying Nancy Pelosi would land on the island on Tuesday evening and meet Ing-wen Tsai the following day before departing again in the afternoon.

Beijing–Washington tensions

At the risk of raising tensions between China and the United States.

Beijing considers the island as part of its territory to be reunified, by force if necessary, and has repeatedly warned Washington against a visit by the senior official which would be experienced as a major provocation.

If the White House is embarrassed by the situation, John Kirby, his spokesperson, said Monday that Nancy Pelosi had "the right to visit Taiwan".

"There is no reason for Beijing to make this visit, which does not depart from long-standing American doctrine, a form of crisis," he added.

The United States practices a so-called "strategic ambiguity" diplomacy with regard to Taiwan, consisting in recognizing only one Chinese government, that of Beijing, while continuing to provide decisive support to Taipei but refraining from saying whether or not they would defend the island militarily in the event of an invasion.

John Kirby reiterated that this policy remains unchanged.

The specter of war

Although most observers rate the likelihood of an armed conflict as low, US officials have said they are preparing for possible displays of force by the Chinese military, such as missile strikes in the Taiwan Straits or massive air raids. around the island.

This Tuesday, the Taiwanese Ministry of Defense said in a press release that it was “determined” to protect the island against threats from China.

The 23 million Taiwanese live under the constant threat of an invasion from China, this fear having increased since the coming to power of President Xi Jinping, who has made reunification a priority.

Last week, during a telephone conversation with the American president, Xi Jinping called on the United States not to "play with fire".

"As we see it, such a visit seems very dangerous and very provocative," Chinese Ambassador to the United Nations Zhang Jun said at a press conference.

"If this visit takes place, it will also weaken the relationship between China and the United States. I'm sure the United States understands that."

To support their message, the Chinese military released a martial-tone video on the Internet on Monday showing soldiers shouting that they are ready for combat, fighters taking off, paratroopers jumping from a plane or a rain of missiles. which annihilate various targets.

The hypothesis of an imminent visit by the senior American official sent stock markets in Asia plummeting, as investors worried about the risks of escalation with China.

The Speaker of the House of Representatives would be, if her visit is confirmed, the highest American official to visit Taiwan since her predecessor Newt Gingrich in 1997.

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