Where is the finger-biting battle between the Sadrist movement and the coordination framework in Iraq headed?

The confrontation escalated between the Sadrist movement led by Muqtada al-Sadr and its rivals within the Shiite coordination framework, after al-Sadr raised his demands and considered the political developments in Iraq an opportunity to fundamentally change the political system, the constitution and elections.

The framework responded to these demands, describing them as "developments that warn of a suspicious coup", because they nullify the "legitimacy of the state and the democratic process", amid fears of confrontations between supporters of the two parties in the street.

Iraq has been in a political deadlock for nearly 10 months. After the legislative elections that took place on October 10, the Sadrist movement won the largest number of parliamentary seats (73 out of 329), and its alliance later with the Sunni Sovereignty Alliance and the Kurdistan Democratic Party;

The tripartite alliance did not succeed in forming the government as a result of the pressure exerted by the coalition of the coordinating framework that includes the Shiite blocs, with the exception of the Sadrist movement.

Nearly 9 months after the elections, the Sadrist movement decided to withdraw from Parliament and submit its deputies to resign, so that the scale of the political process shifted in favor of the coordination framework, whose seats increased and the major bloc became parliamentarian, which gives it the right to form the next government.

The beginning of the current crisis

Last week witnessed the nomination of the coordination framework

to take over the prime minister in the country, but the Sadrist movement rejected this as being close to the head of the State of Law coalition Nuri al-Maliki, which led to an escalation of the power struggle between the Shiite components, to invite the current to its supporters to enter the region The Green Party and the sit-in there last Saturday, which constitutes the largest political escalation in the country since 2003.

Al-Qassab expects that the continuation of the Sadrist demonstrations will lead to the disintegration of the Coordination Framework Alliance (Al-Jazeera)

What are the expected scenarios?

There are many scenarios that researchers expect in Iraqi political affairs, especially that the dispute between the opposing parties has reached the point of biting fingers, in a scene that brings Iraq back to the beginning of the formation of the political process in the country and the similar negative indicators in the adoption of political quotas between the components, in addition to the legal loopholes that Produced by the Iraqi constitution approved in 2005.

In this regard, the head of the Al-Mawred Group for Studies and Media, Najm Al-Qassab, says that after the popular demonstrations of the Sadrist movement and their sit-in inside the Green Zone and the Iraqi parliament, their continuation will lead to the disintegration of the Coordinating Framework Alliance, especially with the major differences between its political blocs and the current’s position on possible solutions to the political impasse. Especially that the Sadrist movement gained great popularity and public support after its withdrawal from the political process and parliament.

Al-Qassab continued - in his speech to Al-Jazeera Net - that the possible scenarios are the continuation of the caretaker government headed by Mustafa Al-Kazemi with the call for early elections, or the nomination of an independent, non-controversial figure who is accepted and blessed by the Sadrist movement and calls for early parliamentary elections, which may mean that early elections are held during One year postgraduate.

As for the head of the Center for Political Thinking, Ihsan Al-Shammari, believes that there are 3 scenarios, the first being the withdrawal of the coordination framework candidate, Muhammad Shia Al-Sudani, from running for prime minister, and presenting another alternative that the Sadrist movement may reject if it is allied with the coordination framework.

As for the second scenario, Al-Shammari adds in his speech to Al-Jazeera Net, that the coordinating framework can give up its political power as the Sadrist movement did, and that is by choosing a ministerial formation away from quotas, working to prepare the atmosphere for early legislative elections, pointing out that the last scenario is represented in Retaining the current caretaker government with a view to early elections, which is rejected by the coordination framework.

Al-Arar: The demands of the Sadrist movement are to make a fundamental modification in the course of the political process (Al-Jazeera)

What are the demands of the Sadrist movement?

For years, the Sadrist movement has been calling for political and economic reform in the country, although it has been a partner in the majority of successive governments since the formation of the first parliamentary government in 2006. However, the political closure the country has witnessed in recent months revealed the movement's political movement is the clearest so far.

In this regard, a political researcher close to the Sadrist movement, Ziad al-Arar, says that the movement has set a clear road map for everyone that goes beyond demonstrations and demands for reform, indicating that the demands are represented in a fundamental modification in the course of the political process, which does not mean a coup against power, but rather an amendment, according to a new political contract in line with The constitution and the law enable the people to choose their representatives in parliament and government.

In an exclusive interview with Al Jazeera Net, Al-Arar added that the other demand is that all those accused of corruption be held accountable according to the law and without pressure on the judiciary, with the application of the principle of separation of powers and the recovery of money looted by political forces and leaders over the previous years.

Al-Sarraj sees that the Sadrist scenario is working to dissolve Parliament while keeping Al-Kazemi’s government (Al-Jazeera)

Will the protests continue?

On the continuation of demonstrations and sit-ins inside the Green Zone, Arar comments, "There is no withdrawal for the demonstrators without achieving these demands, and this step is the first, as it will be followed by other steps such as peaceful mass mobilization and others."

Al-Arar revealed - in an exclusive interview with Al-Jazeera Net - that the movement's next step will go to establishing a unified prayer inside the Green Zone and in other areas, and that the movement has not yet directed an official invitation to its supporters to demonstrate comprehensively, but only insinuations, pointing out that Al-Sadr's call Sunday for the importance of the participation of all Iraqis It led to an increase in the number of demonstrators many times what it was, which means that the mass mobilization will be double.

On the other hand, the head of the Iraqi Center for Media Development, Adnan Al-Sarraj, believes that the political scene of the Sadrist movement tends to the demonstrations, which are - according to him - the only card that Muqtada al-Sadr has to move them, in order to impose his conditions and implement his program, which is represented by the political majority.

Speaking to Al-Jazeera Net, Al-Sarraj - who is close to the coordination framework - explained that the Sadrist scenario is working to dissolve Parliament while maintaining the Al-Kazemi government, which is not accepted by the coordination framework, pointing out that the coordination framework has become - according to the constitution - political legitimacy through its representation. The largest parliamentary bloc.

Al-Shammari: Going to a political settlement will eventually be present (Al-Jazeera)

What are the prospects for escalation?

Field developments in recent hours reveal a significant escalation in the political crisis, especially after the coordination framework called on its masses to demonstrate on the walls of the Green Zone at five o’clock in the evening today, Monday, which may lead to a significant escalation in the Iraqi scene, especially since the coordination framework read Muqtada al-Sadr’s tweets. It suggests a coup against power.

In this regard, Ziad al-Arar, a close associate of the Sadrist movement, says that in order to remedy any targeting of the demonstrators or any security breaches among their ranks, the demonstrators resorted to a sit-in inside the parliament dome as it is protected by the security forces, in addition to the fact that the demonstrators are searching everyone who enters the Green Zone and Parliament.

Returning to the head of the Center for Political Thinking, Ihsan Al-Shammari, he believes that despite the adoption of the principle of the brink by the political forces, going for a political settlement will be present in the end, except in the event that the two sides of the crisis reach the point of no return, which has ominous consequences, considering that the armed clash Between the two parties it will mean the loss of everyone, which the political forces collectively do not desire, while not hiding the possibility of limited skirmishes between the two parties.

Regarding the framework’s movements in light of the current situation, Adnan Al-Sarraj comments, “The compatibility between the Sadrist movement and the framework is currently excluded under complex circumstances, and that the situation has only two options, as the first is an understanding with the Sadrist movement in order to designate the Sudanese prime minister for a temporary period, provided that His government is working to hold early legislative elections with specific timing, and the other option is to move the coordination framework towards other political forces to obtain their approval to hold a session of the House of Representatives, to choose a president of the republic and assign a prime minister, and this can happen in the capital, Baghdad, or in any region. other of the country.

Regarding the reaction of the coordination framework if the demonstrations continue, Al-Sarraj added that the framework is able to mobilize the popular masses supporting it, and that the political forces that it consists of have a great public influence that can demonstrate and show public opinion that there are other masses that hold an opinion that is contrary to the current and reflects the view of the framework , which will reflect the political balance in the country, pointing out that the masses of the framework will have a position through which they support the formation of a government led by Muhammad Shia Al-Sudani, as he put it.

Al-Abed: The Sadrist movement will not be satisfied with the withdrawal of the Sudanese and will not accept any alternative to it from within the coordination framework (Al-Jazeera)

What are the possible solutions?

Most observers of the Iraqi situation indicate that the coming hours will be pregnant with events that may result in logical solutions that distance the country from the internal fighting that is rearing its head again. Some blocs withdrew and agreed to sit at a real negotiating table with the Sadrist movement to get out of the current impasse, especially with the clear differences between the State of Law coalition led by Nuri al-Maliki and the Fatah bloc led by Hadi al-Amiri.

After many observers pointed out the necessity of Muhammad Shia’a al-Sudani’s withdrawal from his candidacy for prime minister to stave off sedition, political analyst Ghanem al-Abed believes that the Sadrist movement will not be satisfied with the withdrawal of al-Sudani, and will not accept any alternative to it from within the coordinating framework.

Speaking to Al-Jazeera Net, Al-Abed said, "The Sadrist movement believes that the coordination framework has succeeded in one way or another in employing the decisions of the Federal Court in its quest to form the government that the movement would have formed, and that possible solutions may be through the return of the Sadrist movement's deputies to Parliament, provided that the Federal Court abandons Its decisions are by the blocking third, and that the president of the republic is elected and the prime minister is appointed through the parliamentary majority represented by half of the members of the House of Representatives plus one.

Regarding the possibility of holding early parliamentary elections to get out of the impasse, Al-Abed believes that dissolving Parliament and resorting to early elections has become the demand of the two opposing sides, but the devil lies in the details that confirm that the framework does not want to hold any elections under Al-Kazemi’s government, with the Sadrist movement rejecting any figure. A candidate for prime minister is close to the coordination framework.

Regarding the possibility of legally returning the resigned members of the Sadrist movement to Parliament, legal expert Ali Al-Tamimi confirms the possibility of this by submitting a request to the Federal Supreme Court in accordance with Article “93-III” of the Constitution, since the resignation did not receive a vote by Parliament.

And he explained in his speech to Al-Jazeera Net that the Federal Court can consider the request for return, given that the resignation was made under great psychological pressure, violating the element of will required to resign, as the concerned members of the resigned representatives can appeal the procedures that led to the acceptance of their resignations, according to him.

Al-Tamimi: Holding early elections requires dissolving parliament through an absolute majority vote (Al-Jazeera)

What is the possibility of holding early elections?

Political calls for early elections are mounting in the country out of the effects of the recent elections.

In this regard, the head of the Al-Mawred Group for Studies and Media, Najm Al-Qassab, says that there is a possibility for this if the details are agreed upon, as the conditions of the Sadrist movement are to keep the elections law and the Commission, with the possibility of amending only one or two articles, which will greatly embarrass the coordination framework that He had attributed his election loss to Electoral Law No. 9 of 2020.

Regarding the merits of the election law, Ihsan Al-Shammari believes that there is no problem in holding early elections, but the lack of confidence between the political parties will lead to a return to the first square, which is represented in the details of the current electoral law, and the possibility of all parties agreeing to keep it or amend it.

Legally, it is not possible to hold early legislative elections in the presence of the current parliament, which requires - according to legal expert Ali Al-Tamimi - the dissolution of Parliament through the vote of an absolute majority of its members (329 seats), meaning half of the total number plus one, as stipulated in Article 64. of the Iraqi constitution.

Al-Tamimi identified two ways for this. The first is a written request to dissolve Parliament by a third of the members (110 deputies), and it is directed to the Speaker of the House of Representatives, then vote on it by an absolute majority;

The second method is to request the dissolution of Parliament by the Prime Minister and with the approval of the President of the Republic.

Al-Tamimi continues that by excluding the second method, given that the current government is a caretaker government and is not elected by the current parliament, the only way to dissolve Parliament is internal by Parliament, and then the President of the Republic calls for general elections within a maximum period of 60 days from the date of the dissolution, with The continuation of the current caretaker government, as Article 64 of the constitution does not provide for a specific term for the caretaker government.

Commenting on these details, political analyst Ghanem Al-Abed confirms that all solutions involve great complications, as the coordination framework rejects the continuation of the Al-Kazemi government in the conduct of business while refusing the current government's supervision of any upcoming elections, pointing out that the other party represented by the Sadrist movement refuses to take over any A figure affiliated with the government's coordination framework, even if it is for a transitional period, which means that the possible solutions are also complex, according to him.

What is the impact of the Iranian role?

Not all political parties in Iraq hide Iran's influence in the Iraqi political scene since 2003. Speaking about Tehran's role in the current crisis, Ihsan Al-Shammari believes that Iran is a party to the crisis and stands by the coordination framework, pointing out that it bears responsibility for the situation in Iraq. country.

On the other hand, Ghanem al-Abed believes that Iran has failed to control the political situation, and is no longer in the same capacity to manage the Iraqi scene as it used to in previous parliamentary sessions, noting that the repeated visits of Quds Force Commander Ismail Qaani to Iraq in the past few days have not achieved any results. Concrete, indicating difficulties facing Tehran in managing the Iraqi file.

On Monday morning, the Iranian Foreign Ministry considered the current developments in Iraq as an internal matter, and that the Iraqi parties and currents are able to overcome this stage. The statement added: "We respect the decision of the Iraqi people and believe that dialogue is the best way to settle problems."