American historian: 4 mysteries surrounding Pelosi's visit to Taiwan

American historian Niall Ferguson says that there are 4 mysteries surrounding the trip of US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan, noting that tensions over the island have not been this high since 1996, and this visit could push China to the edge of the abyss.

The first puzzle, Ferguson says in

on the American “Bloomberg” website, relates to US President Joe Biden saying “tensely” a week ago to reporters that the military believes that this visit is not a good idea at the present time, and it seems that this did not change Pelosi’s opinion .

The writer wondered why it took the US military 3 months to find out that this visit was not a good idea, saying that relations between the United States and China were not bad only a week ago;

Taiwan was the main flashpoint in the second Cold War since Sino-US relations decisively deteriorated more than four years ago.

Usual Chinese Warnings

The writer noted Chinese President Xi Jinping's warning last Thursday that "resolutely protecting China's national sovereignty and territorial integrity reflects the firm will of more than 1.4 billion Chinese... Those who play with fire will perish with it."

However, he said, such Chinese warnings are not new, "and we have seen them many times in 1954-55, 1958 and 1995-96".

The second conundrum is: Why would Biden's national security team want to repeat the experience of 1996 (the conflict over Taiwan between the Clinton administration and China) when it is mired in confronting the Russian "invasion" of Ukraine?

Part of the explanation, he said, is that the Biden administration remains committed to being tougher on China than its predecessor, given the belief within the Democratic Party that getting tough on China is important to winning the looming election in November.

A completely different situation from 1996

But he said this year is not 1996;

China's current leadership has a very different outlook from its leadership in 1996, the current leadership is more "hardline" ideologically and completely different from that leadership that was inclined to economic pragmatism in the post-1989 period, and the Chinese economy today is suffering from severe slowdown pain, and the like This crisis increases the incentive for conflict with the United States rather than reduces it, and President Xi urgently needs a new source of legitimacy for the Chinese Communist Party now that economic growth can no longer provide it.

Ferguson added that China today is militarily stronger than it was in 1996, in that year Beijing had no way to sink American aircraft carriers, and today it has missiles that enable it to do that, and in 1996 the rattling of nuclear swords was a hoax, and today it is not.

They spread fear among the people

The third conundrum is what the New York Times said last week that some Biden administration officials fear that "Chinese leaders may try to move against the autonomous island over the next year and a half, perhaps by trying to cut off access to every strait." Taiwan or part of it, through which US naval ships regularly pass,” adding that he does not know these officials, “they may be those who tend to spread fear among the people,” or “maybe they know something that we do not know.”

The final mystery is that the Democratic administration is on a collision course that its predecessors would never have risked. The administration of former US President Donald Trump did much of what upset Beijing, not least by imposing tariffs that the Biden administration seems unable to raise.

Trump has not reached the brink

“However, Trump did not reach the brink of war over Taiwan,” the writer said, and recounted that former National Security Adviser John Bolton wrote in his memoirs that Trump liked to point at the tip of his pen and say, “This is Taiwan,” and then point to the table in the Oval Office and say This is China.

Trump also told a Republican senator, "Taiwan is two feet from China, and we're 8,000 miles away. If they start a war, there's nothing we can do."

And last March, Trump had a phone conversation with professional golfer John Daly, which the writer said would be quoted by future historians, during which Trump said, referring to Putin, "As if they were afraid of him. You know, he was a friend of mine, you handled him wonderfully." I say: Vladimir, if you do that (I attack Ukraine), we will strike Moscow... That's all I need to stop it."

Trump added that Putin did nothing while he was in the White House "as everyone knows," and added that the Chinese president also did not bother him, because he told him what he told Putin.

"Taiwan will be next," Trump said. "You're not going to have any computer chips, they're going to wipe them off the face of the earth."