War in Ukraine: what balance of power in the East and the South?

Shelling continues in Ukraine.

Several localities were the subject, Saturday, July 30, of Russian strikes, killing at least one person in Mykolaiv, in the South, and destroying a school in Kharkiv, in the East, according to the Ukrainian authorities.

On the 157th day of war, Russian forces are skating in the Donbass, the mining basin in the east of the country.

If they try to advance near Siversk and Bakhmout (cities located about fifty kilometers from Kramatorsk), "Russian progress is very weak", comments Joseph Henrotin, researcher at the Institute of Comparative Strategy (ISC) and editor in chief of the specialized journal DSI.

"Contrary to the assertions of the pro-Russian channels, Siversk is still not taken, the push towards Bakhmout does not succeed, the Ukrainian forces are holding out against the offensives", underlines the expert.

Conclusions shared by the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW), which believes that "there is little chance that Russian forces will succeed in conquering Bakhmout despite small advances towards the city".

Slow but steady progress

"The Russian army continues to progress but it is very slow", notes for his part the general Dominique Trinquand.

"After marking an operational pause in the Donbass region, it has resumed its advance, and is seeking to encircle the Ukrainian forces in small pieces."

"The Russian army is advancing very slowly, probably due to a lack of human resources. It does not have enough soldiers to really progress," he continues.

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Same observation on the side of the British Ministry of Defence, which assures that "the Russian paramilitary group Wagner operates in eastern Ukraine in coordination with the regular Russian army" and has been "entrusted with specific sectors on the front line".

This new, more integrated role "probably means that the Russian Ministry of the Armed Forces faces a shortage of combat infantry".

The Ukrainian governor of the Luhansk region, Sergey Gaidai, announced on Friday that Ukrainian forces had faced six Russian assaults in the east.

"The enemy's reconnaissance groups are trying to find weak points in our defense (..). They attack from different sides and have resorted to aviation on several occasions," he said on Telegram.

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"Encirclement operation" in Kherson 

In the south of the country, the advantage is rather with the Ukrainian forces, which seek to take back the city of Kherson, occupied by the Russians since the beginning of March.

In recent weeks, kyiv has used long-range missile systems supplied by the West to severely damage three bridges over the Dnieper, isolating the city of Kherson and, according to British defense officials, leaving the Russian military very vulnerable stationed on the west bank of the river.

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Ukraine's Southern Command said in a statement that more than 100 Russian troops were killed and seven tanks were destroyed in Friday's fighting in the Kherson region - figures that could not be independently confirmed.

The first deputy head of the Kherson regional council, Yuri Sobolevsky, asked residents not to approach Russian ammunition depots.

"The Ukrainian army is unleashed on the Russians and this is only the beginning," he wrote on the Telegram app.

"The Ukrainians are trying to encircle the Russian forces located west of the Dnieper, specifies Dominique Trinquand, in particular by reaching the bridges of the Dnieper river, and by gradually attacking the villages of the region. (...) The supplies will no longer be able to arrive in Kherson or will arrive sporadically, and therefore the Russian troops will find themselves isolated", continues the general.

"A defeat of Russia is excluded"

Recent arms deliveries by the West have changed the situation.

For Dominique Trinquand, "the key [to the Ukrainian advance, editor's note] was the Himars rocket launchers [High Mobility Artillery Rocket System, editor's note] which made it possible to hit the bridges or the Russian logistics. (...) He We needed machines that would shoot far. This is the case with the Cesars but even more so with the Himars", notes the expert. 

“Ukraine thinks it can achieve victory by September, but I think it could be more difficult than it looks,” nuance Samuel Ramani, geopolitical expert at the British think tank specializing in defense and security. security, "Royal United Services Institute", on the antenna of France 24. 

"It's important to keep in mind that while Ukraine has Himars and other multiple-launch rocket systems, the Russians have a 6-8 to 1 advantage in artillery, which could end up being s be decisive in preventing, or at least slowing the pace, of the Ukrainian counter-offensive," he said. 

The French general also notes, for his part, a new Ukrainian strategy, based on "the concentration of efforts in the area where we want to obtain an effect", which has also proved its worth. 

But if the Ukrainian advance is notable, the general warns: "A defeat for Russia is however excluded. As long as Russia has not achieved its objectives, it will not want to discuss."

"Today, we are still in a balance of power and when the time comes, we will naturally have to negotiate. But for the Ukrainians, negotiating when part of their territory is occupied will be extremely difficult. We may be able to negotiate a ceasefire, but obtaining more than a ceasefire in the coming months seems difficult to me," he concludes. 

With AFP and Reuters 

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