"Don't say we didn't warn you!"


This phrase was used in 1962 and 1979 by the People's Daily, the official newspaper of the Communist Party of China.

China later went to war with India and Vietnam, respectively.

However, this phrase has recently appeared again in the Chinese state-run media.

It was aimed at pushing for US House Speaker Pelosi's visit to Taiwan.

The state-run Global Times reported that this phrase was frequently mentioned at the forum held on the 29th of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Taiwan Research Institute, China's top think tank.



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There are other similar phrases.

A spokesperson for the Chinese defense ministry said on the 26th that if Chairman Pelosi insists on a visit to Taiwan, "I will not let go of it while sitting still."

This expression is similar to the words used by former Chinese Prime Minister Zhou Enlai during the Korean War.

At the time, Zhou Enlai warned the US troops to advance north and said, "If the US military tries to expand the war beyond the 38th parallel, we cannot turn our backs on our heads."

After that, China entered the war.

Just looking at the recent atmosphere in China, if Chairman Pelosi visits Taiwan, it seems that war is inevitable.


China opposes Pelosi's visit to Taiwan

China's official reason for objecting to Pelosi's visit to Taiwan is that it could give Taiwan the wrong signal.

As is well known, China maintains the 'one China' principle and claims that Taiwan is also Chinese territory.

However, China is concerned that if a high-ranking American incumbent visits Taiwan, Taiwan's independence forces, including the ruling Democratic Progressive Party, could push for a stronger separation from mainland China.

Chairman Pelosi ranks third in the hierarchy of power in the United States.

When Pelosi visits Taiwan, it will be the first incumbent US House Speaker to visit Taiwan in 25 years since then House Speaker Gingrich visited Taiwan during the Clinton administration in 1997.



There are more reasons why China is sensitive to it.

Pelosi is one of the US lawmakers who was detained during a visit to Beijing in 1991 for distributing banners at the site of the Tiananmen pro-democracy protests.

The banner read, "To those who died for China's democracy."

Since then, Chairman Pelosi has put pressure on China by raising human rights issues in every major phase, such as hosting the 2008 Beijing Olympics and China joining the World Trade Organization (WTO).

If Chairman Pelosi like this visits Taiwan, what kind of action he will take and what message he will send to Taiwan, he is inevitably anxious from China's point of view.

Once Chairman Pelosi's visit to Taiwan is completed, it is obvious that more people will visit Taiwan one after another.



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Chinese state media even discusses military options

China is raising the level of vigilance against Chairman Pelosi's visit to Taiwan every day.

At a regular briefing on the 28th, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Zhao Lijian reiterated the defense ministry spokesperson's warning that "the Chinese military will never stand still and will take strong measures."

President Xi Jinping's use of the harsh phrase "If you play with fire, you will surely die in fire" in a phone call with President Biden was also in fact aimed at Pelosi's visit to Taiwan.



Chinese state media have even discussed military options.

Citing military experts, the Global Times and the Global Times reported that various military actions are possible if Chairman Pelosi visits Taiwan.

China's People's Liberation Army declared airspace and waters around Taiwan a no-fly and navigation zone, or could conduct large-scale military exercises around Taiwan.

Furthermore, it said that a fighter could be sent to block the plane carrying Chairman Pelosi, or the fighter could fly over the plane following Chairman Pelosi's transport and pass over the airport where Chairman Pelosi landed.

He said it was possible for Chinese fighters to enter the airspace over Tiwan and even launch ballistic missiles around Taiwan.

The Global Times predicted that if the People's Liberation Army took a military response, "it would be bigger and more complex than it was during the Taiwan Strait crisis of 1995-1996."



The Pingtan Maritime Bureau of Fujian Province has started live bullet shooting training near Pingtan Island from the morning of the 30th.

The training zone is located 126km from Hsinchu County in northern Taiwan, the closest to Taiwan.



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Will Pelosi force a visit to Taiwan?

Starting this weekend, Pelosi will lead a delegation from the US Congress to visit Asian countries including Japan, South Korea, Malaysia and Singapore.

At a press conference ahead of his departure, Pelosi said, "For security reasons, I will never tell you" when asked if he would be visiting Taiwan.



It is unclear whether Pelosi will actually visit Taiwan.

First of all, the Biden administration is in an atmosphere of reluctance to visit Pelosi.

President Biden said on the 20th that "the military does not see Pelosi's visit to Taiwan as a good idea."

This is because relations with China can escalate into catastrophe in a world economically difficult situation, and can even escalate into an accidental armed conflict.



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But Pelosi's failure to visit Taiwan could give the impression that he has succumbed to Chinese pressure.

That, too, could put a strain on the Biden administration ahead of the November US midterm elections.

Chairman Pelosi's personal self-esteem can also be crumpled.



China is also preparing for a party congress that will determine the third term of President Xi Jinping in October.

The presence of Chairman Pelosi's visit to Taiwan is not bound to be as important.

If Chairman Pelosi visits Taiwan, it is clear that tensions between the US and China will rise to a climax.