The rebound of the French economy stronger than expected with growth of 0.5%
The return of tourism was one of the major growth factors during this second quarter in France.
© BENOIT TESSIER/REUTERS
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The clouds of recession seem to be dissipating.
After a first quarter where GDP fell by 0.2%, France recorded growth of 0.5% in the spring.
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This
first estimate of the gross domestic product
(GDP) published this Friday, July 29 by the National Institute of Statistics (Insee) will have to be confirmed at the end of August.
But while growth in the second quarter was expected at 0.2% by the Banque de France and 0.25% by INSEE, it finally settled at 0.5% compared to the first quarter.
This growth is good news for the experts, but it remains to be monitored, in particular due to sluggish consumption,
a tense geopolitical context
and high inflation in the world.
The good performance of the French economy in the second quarter is explained by a clearly positive contribution of foreign trade to growth.
According to this first estimate of the national accounts, imports fell 0.6% in the second quarter, while exports jumped 0.8%.
The latter were “
driven in particular by transport services (+6.3% after +5.0% in the first quarter) and spending by foreign travelers in France (+8.6% after +5.0%)
” , details INSEE.
“
Conversely, exports of goods fell back (-0.6% after +1.4%), particularly in transport equipment and agri-food
”, further specifies the institute.
"
The decline in imports means that the increase in aggregate demand (external and domestic) this quarter was satisfied by an increase in production and not by an increase in imports, and it is in this sense that it contributes to the GDP growth
,” explains INSEE.
A drop in consumption
As for consumption, the traditional driver of the French economy, it remains negative for purchases of goods (-1.3%), but purchases of services are on the rise again (+1.5%).
Two contradictory trends leading to an overall decline of 0.2% in household consumption in the second quarter.
With the figures published on Friday, the institute estimates the growth overhang of the French economy at 2.5% for the year 2022. A figure in line with the government's annual growth forecast.
The Banque de France or the IMF (+2.3%) are slightly less optimistic.
These data come the day after the publication
of the figures for American growth
in the second quarter (-0.9% at an annualized rate after -1.6% in the 1st quarter), which technically put the country into recession.
In Europe, the Italian and Spanish economies are rebounding with respectively 1% and 1.1% increase, while German GDP is stagnating and Portugal is in recession with -0.2%.
More generally, economic growth in the euro area did much better than expected in the second quarter, at 0.7% compared to the previous quarter, while inflation broke a new record in July at 8.9% on a year, according to Eurostat.
(With AFP)
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