[Explanation] On July 28, Beijing time, the Federal Reserve announced another 75 basis points increase in interest rates, raising the interest rate to 2.25%-2.5%.
What is the impact of the Fed raising interest rates again on the global economy?
In this regard, the reporter connected with relevant experts. Experts said that although the Fed's interest rate hike can ease the pressure of inflation, it will have an impact on the recovery and growth of the global economy.
[Concurrent] Wei Hongxu, researcher of Anbang Think Tank
First, (the Fed raising interest rates) will definitely curb inflation. If inflation reaches 9.1%, then the interest rate hike will curb demand, which in turn will have an impact on prices.
Not only will the US demand for the world be suppressed, but to a certain extent, the pressure of inflation will be eased.
(But) this is a seesaw. Since it suppresses demand, the entire economic growth will be suppressed, which means that the recovery and growth of the global economy will be affected.
The greater the magnitude and frequency of interest rate hikes, the greater the impact will gradually become.
[Explanation] Experts said that high inflation in the United States prompted the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates quickly and at a high density.
According to relevant data, the U.S. consumer price index (CPI) rose by more than 8% year-on-year for three consecutive months from March to May.
[Concurrent] Wei Hongxu, researcher of Anbang Think Tank
So this time is the fourth rate hike, which is also 75 basis points.
It is faster than ever, and the density will become stronger and stronger, so it shows such an idea or such an attitude that it is eager to suppress inflation.
Of course, from the perspective of inflation, it is true that it has reached 9.1% in June, so the pressure on the Fed as a policy department will be very high.
[Explanation] What impact does the Fed's rate hike have on China's monetary policy?
Experts said that the interest rate gap between China and the United States has narrowed rapidly after the Fed raised interest rates, and the Chinese central bank will be under greater external pressure.
[Concurrent] Wei Hongxu, researcher of Anbang Think Tank
As the Fed keeps raising interest rates, the gap between the Fed and the central bank's monetary policy is widening, and the interest rate gap between China and the United States is shrinking rapidly.
Then the external impact on us will be relatively large, especially the exchange rate of RMB.
In this case, our central bank will be under greater external pressure, which means that our own domestic monetary policy space is also narrowing, which is the result of external influences.
[Explanation] Recently, many central banks around the world have followed the pace of the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates to deal with inflation, and the central bank's next monetary policy orientation has attracted attention.
In this regard, experts believe that China's inflation is currently at a normal level, and the central bank's monetary policy does not need to follow the footsteps of the Federal Reserve, but it is still necessary to be wary of imported inflation.
[Concurrent] Economist Wan Zhe
After the outbreak of the new crown epidemic in China, it should be said that the impact was the most obvious in the first quarter, but in fact, after the second quarter, there was a "V"-shaped GDP growth.
And in 2020, the world's only important economy has achieved positive growth, so we will find that we did not actually fall into a situation like the United States or other countries and regions where a currency was released. .
Our interest rate itself is normal, so there is no need to normalize and increase interest rates again.
So from the perspective of the overall form of inflation, it should be said that in a situation where the global inflation is currently high, the control of China's inflation should still be relatively normal from the current point of view. Of course, we still have to be wary of this imported currency. swell.
I don't think we're likely to follow or sync with it, and there's no need for that.
Reported by Chi Hanyu in Beijing
Responsible editor: [Luo Pan]