With the World Health Organization declaring monkeypox a health emergency, does this disease bring us back to the quarantine measures, travel bans, social distancing and masks we witnessed with Corona?
Could it develop into a pandemic?
And what do the experts say?
We start with Dr. Hossam Abu Farsakh, a consultant in the diagnosis of tissue and clinical diseases in the Jordanian capital, Amman, who said that declaring monkeypox a health emergency means that the epidemic has reached a stage that requires concerted international efforts to eradicate it, because it represents a danger to humanity.
Preventive measures must be taken to prevent this virus from spreading further as soon as possible.
Could monkeypox develop into a pandemic?
Abu Farsakh does not expect that the matter will reach a global pandemic, as most of the danger is confined to Europe and America, and the rest of the world, even if it is present in it, is in small numbers, and he says that the reasons that are reassured about it not turning into a global pandemic are:
Monkeypox is mostly transmitted and according to the latest studies;
Through sexual contact and close physical contact in 95% of infected people, transmission by drop or breath is not an important mode of transmission.
The rate of spread of monkeypox is much less than the rate of the spread of corona.
The number of infections in the Corona epidemic and 4 months after the announcement of the pandemic in March 2020 exceeded 12 million, while those infected with monkeypox 4 months after it were announced about 18 thousand cases in the world.
There are several effective vaccines available in the world against monkeypox, the most important of which are ACAM2000 and JYNNEOS, and we are still at the beginning of this disease, and their distribution has already begun.
As for the vaccines in the Corona epidemic, they appeared about 10 months after the beginning of the pandemic.
There are effective treatments against monkeypox available, including tecovirimat.
Will monkeypox lead to overcrowded hospitals and high mortality?
Dr. Abu Farsakh says that he does not expect this, adding that the death rate in monkeypox is very low and there are only 5 deaths recorded so far of the type prevalent in West Africa, and no deaths of the type prevalent in Europe and America have been recorded.
He added that the monkeypox virus is a "DNA" virus, and these viruses are much less mutated than the "RNA" (RNA) viruses, of which the Corona virus is.
This will contribute to reducing infections or even the ability of the virus to bypass immunity from vaccines.
Also, infection in corona is before symptoms appear;
This makes it difficult for contacts to know that the patient is infected.
While in monkeypox infection is when ulcers appear in the second week usually;
This will greatly reduce contact with patients and thus reduce the spread of the virus.
What is the probability that the preventive measures such as masks, closures, quarantine and travel restrictions will return?
Because the disease is not transmitted through breathing and droplets as the main route;
It does not work to wear masks in preventing the disease, so it is not expected that the masks will return for monkeypox, and also the return of closures, quarantine and travel restrictions is not expected.
Is it expected to start international campaigns to vaccinate against monkeypox, using the smallpox vaccine?
Dr. Abu Farsakh says he expects monkeypox vaccines to be optional and for the most at-risk group, homosexuals.
How long will the emergency last?
The World Health Organization in Europe expects that the number of monkeypox cases will reach more than 27,000 by the second of August in 88 countries, up from 17,800 cases in about 70 countries in the latest census.
Scientists from around the world told Reuters that preparing forecasts beyond this period is more complicated, and added that the spread of infection is expected to continue for several months and perhaps longer.
What are the chances of stopping the spread of monkeypox?
According to Reuters, scientists advising the World Health Organization on monkeypox said the chance of stopping the spread of the disease is dwindling as the number of cases increases every two weeks;
This raises concerns that it could take months for the spread to reach its peak.
“We have to get ahead of that [stopping the disease],” said Anne Rimoen, a UCLA epidemiologist and member of the WHO’s expert panel on monkeypox. “It is clear that the chance of doing that is dwindling.”
The committee met last week to determine whether the outbreak constitutes a global public health emergency, and the majority of members voted against the move;
But the Director-General of the World Health Organization, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, declared a "state of emergency in any case", in an unprecedented move.
Health experts said that the measures resulting from this announcement must be urgent;
Including increasing vaccinations, examinations, isolating infected people, and monitoring contacts.
The world has largely ignored the presence of the disease in parts of Africa for decades, but cases of infection began to appear last May outside the countries where it is endemic.
Outside of Africa, the disease is mainly spread among men who have sex with men, according to Reuters.
Experts say that the current spread may lead to mutations in the virus that make it more effective in spreading between humans.
And on Tuesday, German scientists released a study that found mutations in one of 47 cases of infection and concluded that they may help the virus spread more easily.
Danish vaccine against monkeypox
The European Commission has agreed to expand the use of the vaccine of the Danish group of medicines "Bavarian Nordic" to combat monkeypox, according to what the company announced on Monday, and it was reported by Agence France-Presse.
The green light was issued from Brussels after the European Medicines Authority granted approval last Friday for the use of the Imvanex vaccine against monkeypox, knowing that it has been approved since 2013 in the European Union against human smallpox.
The commission's green light is valid in all EU member states as well as in Iceland, Liechtenstein and Norway.
The Imvanex vaccine is marketed as "Jynneos" in the United States, and has been approved to combat monkeypox since 2019. This makes it the only vaccine licensed to prevent the disease.
The company announced that it had received a new US request in mid-July to raise the number of doses required in the United States to 7 million.
It also announced a request for 1.5 million doses from an unnamed European country last week.
About monkeypox
The first cases of monkeypox in humans were discovered in 1970, and it is less serious and contagious than the human smallpox that was eradicated in 1980.
The disease is transmitted through close contact, and the patient usually recovers without intervention after 2 or 3 weeks.
The disease, which until now was endemic in a few African countries, appears as a rash on the genitals or in the mouth and can be accompanied by bouts of fever, sore throat or pain in the lymph nodes.