This is a warning that draws a real red line: while commercial and military contacts between Taiwan and the United States regularly provoke China's anger, Beijing has warned Washington that a visit by its chief deputy Nancy Pelosi on the island would have “consequences”.

These remarks come before a phone call scheduled for the next few days between Chinese President Xi Jinping and his American counterpart Joe Biden.

China had warned Monday that it was "standing ready" to respond to such a visit.

Beijing reiterated Wednesday during a regular press briefing its "firm opposition".

"If the United States persists in defying China's red line" with this visit to Taiwan, it "will face strong measures in response and must bear all the consequences", warned a spokesperson for Chinese diplomacy, Zhao Lijian.

He was responding to a question about press reports that the US military would increase its activity in Asia-Pacific in the event of a visit by Nancy Pelosi.

Washington ready to defend Taiwan militarily?

American support for Taipei is no secret, however.

Even without officially recognizing Taiwan, which has never officially declared its independence, considering it to be the legitimate government of China, Washington highlights the "democratic" status of the island.

Arms shipments have multiplied in recent years, while China has been threatening since the election in 2016 of a Taiwanese president, Tsai Ing-wen, from an independence party.

At the end of May, Joe Biden had even affirmed that the United States would intervene militarily in the event of an invasion of Taiwan by China, before returning to his remarks.

Several experts then feared that Vladimir Putin's military operation in Ukraine would give ideas to his Chinese counterpart.

Beijing had also sent fighter jets into the Taiwan Air Identification Zone, and the communist regime still threatens to use force if the island of 24 million inhabitants declares its independence.

CIA boss Bill Burns recently said the question was no longer whether China would invade the island, but “when and how”.

It is in this context that Nancy Pelosi, speaker of the House of Representatives and as such one of the most senior figures in the American state, plans despite everything to visit Taiwan next month, according to press reports. , considering it “important (…) to show support for Taiwan”.

Simple hypothesis for the moment, this potential displacement is debated within the American government.

Unusually, Joe Biden himself noted last week that the US military felt that this visit was “not a good idea”.

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