US researcher: Any large-scale fighting would be brutal
A lesson from Ukraine that justifies the need for America not to go to war over Taiwan
A frigate participates in a military exercise in preparation for any possible war with China.
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Biden may not be able to support Taiwan as he did with Ukraine.
Reuters
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Sasha Glaeser, an expert and research associate at the American Research Center "Defense Priorities," says that the tension in relations between the United States and China has made Taiwan the most dangerous region of tension in the world.
The Chinese Communist Party maintains that Taiwan is a breakaway province, and its reunification with the mainland is only a matter of time.
Beijing has made it clear that it is ready to use force to achieve this.
The United States, for its part, appears determined to prevent it, with President Joe Biden declaring on three separate occasions that the United States has an obligation to defend Taiwan.
The White House quickly retracted each of the president's statements, but the question remains: If a Chinese attack on Taiwan did occur, how should the United States react?
priority
Glaser adds in a report published by the American magazine “The National Interest” that although current US policy should prioritize diplomacy with Beijing and arming Taipei to deter aggression, it is important to plan for such a contingency in order to respond wisely rather than allow emotion to lead politics.
The American response to the war in Ukraine provides an accurate knowledge of the prudence and foolishness of some of the reactions.
Glaeser believes that military restraint is the most important lesson of the American response to the war in Ukraine, and American leaders should be wise to allow the same logic to be a guiding light for any response to any Chinese attack on Taiwan.
Military conflict with Russia is out of the question
Correctly, the Biden administration and European allies closest to Ukraine have concluded that direct military conflict with Russia is not on the cards.
Although the United States has sympathy for the poor conditions Ukrainians find themselves in, the war is not the war America has to fight.
After all, Ukraine does not justify sacrificing American lives in a conventional war with Russia, nor is it worth the risk of a nuclear escalation.
Likewise, Glaeser believes, Americans may sympathize with the real threat to Taiwan from a much larger neighbor.
However, any war between the United States and China would result in the same unacceptable risks of massive loss of life, and a serious threat of nuclear weapon use by both sides.
Hence, just as the United States avoided direct military conflict with Russia in favor of Ukraine, it should avoid direct military conflict with China in favor of Taiwan.
aid
Instead of intervening militarily, the United States and Europe are supporting Ukraine with large amounts of humanitarian aid and lethal weapons.
Given Ukraine's western borders with friendly countries, providing it with aid was relatively easy.
Globally, about $82 billion was collected for Ukraine, of which the United States paid about $24 billion in military aid alone.
Although large aid packages may provide Ukraine with a means to withstand strong resistance, this is unlikely to tip the balance in its favour.
In the case of Taiwan, several factors are likely to prevent any similar attempt by the United States and its allies to provide support.
Certainly, China has realized that to avoid the dangers of any protracted war, any move against Taiwan should be taken as quickly as possible.
Taiwan, an island slightly larger than Maryland, lacks the strategic depth of Ukraine.
And although any large-scale fighting would be brutal, it would likely be rapid, thus preventing US or global aid in time for its use.
In addition, attempting to provide aid to Taiwan carries the risk of being inadvertently drawn into hostilities, as China may attempt to intercept ships and aircraft attempting to deliver aid.
Revenge
Glaser asserts that economic and diplomatic retaliation against Russia may signal a desire to punish Russia, but it has not changed Russian behavior and contributed to secondary consequences around the world, including food security, rising gas prices, and record inflation.
Moreover, it has proven difficult for the United States to persuade other countries, including those in the Global South, Asia, and the Western Hemisphere, to participate in the economic sanctions imposed on Russia.
As European countries cut Russian oil and gas imports, countries such as India and China seized the opportunity, importing record quantities at low prices, thus reducing the impact of Western sanctions.
The economic consequences of such a reaction to any conflict between China and Taiwan would have larger repercussions around the world, Glaser says, given China's interdependence within the global economy.
It would probably be impossible to persuade other countries to accept severe damage to their domestic economies for the sake of Taiwan, since China is the largest trading partner of more than 130 countries, including the United States.
Disruptions in the global supply chain, as a result of engaging in sweeping economic sanctions, will result in supply shortages, high prices, and the loss of the world's largest market for domestic firms.
It is also certain that China will retaliate with economic retaliation of its own, further exacerbating a global economic crisis.
In fact, if China attacks Taiwan, there is nothing the United States can do to help Taiwan, less than fight an extremely costly and dangerous war over it.
Instead, any prudent and politically feasible strategy would be regional deterrence and economic diversification.
Glaser concludes his analysis by saying that as the balance of power in the world shifts, the United States and China will need to learn to live with each other.
During the Cold War, the United States and the Soviet Union carried out armed aggression against a third party of one country, at the protest of the other, yet these cases did not permanently undermine diplomatic relations.
The forcible reintegration of Taiwan into mainland China would be a disaster for Taiwan, and perhaps for China, but need not be a disaster for the United States.
Wise action and apparent realism should be used to ensure the security and prosperity of the United States, regardless of Taiwan's official political status.
Attempting to provide aid to Taiwan carries the risk of being inadvertently drawn into hostilities, as China may intercept ships and aircraft attempting to deliver aid.
Although current US policy should prioritize diplomacy with Beijing and arming Taipei to deter aggression, it is important that you plan for such a contingency in order to respond wisely rather than allowing emotion to drive policy.
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