Washington demonstrated its capacity for effective diplomacy through its handling of the Russian war
An American researcher: The confrontation between Russia and the West is inevitable after the Ukraine war
Whatever the outcome of the war will not affect Putin's future.
Reuters
The Russian war machine may not be able to decide the outcome of the war on Ukraine in its favor.
AFP
Gas is one of the pressure tools that Russia exercises against Europe.
AFP
It does not seem that the fire of war will be extinguished soon.
Reuters
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Professor and chair of the history department at the Catholic University of America, Michael Kimage, predicts that the war in Ukraine may continue for years, and that its end will witness the defeat of Russia in one way or another.
Kimmag says - in a report published by the American magazine "National Interest" - that the essence of this war, regardless of the enormous suffering it resulted, is "that (Russian President) Vladimir Putin made an epic strategic mistake by launching that war, and that the Russian political system does not enjoy Flexibility, or the ability to change course.
This does not indicate the fall of Putin from power, or the emergence of democracy in Russia.”
long-term costs
However, a catastrophic war by a country that is only partly a superpower, and in no way a major economic power, will impose long-term costs for Russia.
The country will have a very difficult time dealing with these costs.
In the post-war world, Russia's almost inevitable defeat will have one positive and one negative outcome for the United States.
The positive result will be global.
Before the war that Russia started in February of this year, the United States was striving to find a role for it.”
The United States is no longer the undisputed dominant power.
She was still recovering from the perilous transition from the administration of President Donald Trump to the administration of Joe Biden.
And the administration stumbled in the process of withdrawing from Afghanistan in the summer of last year.
The Biden administration's division of the world into authoritarian and democratic states was a clear enough distinction.
But it is possible that this was an abstraction, practically unrelated to US foreign policy.
Effective diplomacy
In any case, the United States has already demonstrated its capacity for effective diplomacy in its handling of Russia's war on Ukraine.
Its coordination with countries inside and outside Europe, the establishment of an ambitious sanctions regime against Russia, and the speedy provision of military aid to Ukraine have been exceptional, and it is clear that this is happening under the umbrella of American leadership.
Kemage notes that China appeared lukewarm and turbulent about the Russian war.
It is not a true partner of Russia or Ukraine, nor does it have a vision for war, or the post-war world.
By contrast, the United States exhibits an enormous degree of energy and purpose.
Washington has revealed that it can ensure regional security in Europe, though not for all of Ukraine, of course. This would also keep the US in its traditional post-1945 position in Europe, as the focal point of European security.
It would also make the United States a potential competitor for a similar position in Asia.
And when the war in Ukraine ends, the credibility of the United States will loom somewhat more in the eyes of the many who look forward to it.
The negative outcome of Putin's horrific war will be concentrated in Europe.
Russia does not have the military capacity to control Ukraine.
It largely does not have the military capacity to threaten any member state of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), including Finland and Sweden, should they join the alliance.
The danger of losing the war
Russia is in danger of losing the war in Ukraine.
Nevertheless, it will not cease to be a factor in European affairs.
Whatever happens on Ukrainian soil, a new line has been drawn across Europe.
It is a vague and uncertain line.
On one side are Belarus and Russia.
On the other side are the European Union and NATO.
And it will be a line of contact - long, changing, and dangerous - for decades to come.
And Russia will not have the strength to cross this line, not even through magnetism or coercion to draw Europe into its orbit.
But neither will non-Russian Europe, NATO, or the West have the ability to subjugate Russia or erase its influence.
This influence will be formed by Russia's attempt to turn any source of European instability to its advantage, something that will be felt whenever there are elections, whenever a government falls, and whenever two European countries enter into conflict with each other.
Expressing negative influence
Kimaj added that “the negative influence on the part of Russia will be expressed through cyber-attacks, and perhaps sometimes military attacks, in light of the fact that Russia will not lose much now, by harassing the West and trying to throw it off balance.
Negative Russian influence will also be expressed through nuclear threats, some of which will not be taken care of (if they are merely a false threat), and some may be backed up with the intent to make them appear as believable as possible.
Kimmaj concluded his report by saying that “this situation would be tragic for the United States, as well as for Europe.
There will never be a perfect Europe, free and at peace.
Europe will be as it has always been a battleground, and on this land the United States will not be a distant observer.
She will be on one side with many of her allies across the trenches against her oldest adversary, who is very well known.”
China seemed tepid and turbulent about the Russian war. It is not a true partner of Russia or Ukraine, nor does it have a vision for war, or the post-war world.
The gist of this war, regardless of the enormous suffering it has resulted in, is that "Vladimir Putin made an epic strategic mistake by waging that war, and the Russian political system does not have the flexibility, or the ability to change course."
Negative influence on the part of Russia is expressed through cyber-attacks, and perhaps sometimes military attacks, given that Russia will not lose much now, by harassing and trying to off-balance the West.
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