The CDU has been in opposition since the beginning of the year.

The previous leadership of the Christian Democrats would not have thought this possible.

That was part of the problem.

The election defeat was followed by another succession dispute, the third in a short period of time, and months of self-preoccupation.

First within the party, then at the top of the parliamentary group.

As soon as Friedrich Merz was in office there, on February 24, German foreign and energy policy collapsed.

Angela Merkel had operated it for a decade and a half on the premise that Russia's president was a partner, not a war criminal.

The consequences can be seen in the dependence on Russian gas and a German army that has been so run down by CDU defense ministers that today you can't supply Ukraine with eight guns without baring your own rump forces.

The failure of German security and defense policy in the Merkel era illustrates how it was possible for Russia to deploy more than 1,300 self-propelled howitzers in Ukraine alone, while Germany has fewer than a dozen for the defenders.

Twenty years in opposition

In this situation, it is an advantage for the CDU that Friedrich Merz, of all people, has come out on top.

Because Merz is a man who was basically in opposition to Chairwoman Merkel for 20 years.

Her politics were not his, which is why the Sauerland tried so stubbornly to follow her.

And for this reason, Merkel and the Chancellery tried to prevent Merz until the last moment.

Just remember the strange candidacy of the former Chancellor Helge Braun against Merz.

There are also vacancies that have appeared in the CDU for years because the party has refrained from occupying ministries and topics because of its coalition partners.

A Christian democratic social policy hardly exists anymore, the economic and regulatory policy, once a domain of the CDU, has been neglected.

Proven representatives of the social market economy have become as rare in the CDU as competent defense politicians.

Measured against this opening balance, Friedrich Merz has found a remarkable entry.

Two out of three state elections of the year were won.

The success in North Rhine-Westphalia, primarily thanks to Hendrik Wüst and the CDU there, has done the whole party good.

The success in Schleswig-Holstein also helped to strengthen the insecure membership.

The course determination in the party is progressing with Merz and General Secretary Mario Czaja.

What is curious is what the junior organization “Junge Union” is dealing with when, before the party congress, it mobilizes against a moderate quota for women instead of making contributions to the big issues of the time.

It bodes well for the future of Christian Democracy if the senior at the top seems more willing to learn and reform than the predominantly male party youth.

In parliament, Merz succeeded in getting Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) to represent him in the Ukraine war nationally and at European level as a political wandering dune.

The Chancellor acknowledged this in his inadvisable way by not speaking to Merz for two months.

Unlike Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck and other key figures in the Greens.

The previous failure of the Union

A loyal opposition is badly needed in the coming months.

Merz is ready to do so, also considering his own party's past failures on Russia, energy and defense policies.

In its own ranks, the CDU leadership senses the emerging panic with a view to Moscow.

The Saxon Prime Minister Michael Kretschmer is an audible voice.

Many East German CDU mandate holders and probably also parts of the CSU, including the chairman, think similarly and flirt with pushing a waiver peace on Kyiv in order to preserve their own prosperity.

Populists from right and left are already filling their depots with lies and half-truths in order to drive their wedges into the cracks that the war and its effects will bring in Germany.

Merz's decision at the end of February to oblige the Union faction in the Bundestag to be loyal to the big picture narrowed his ability to profile the CDU harder against the traffic light coalition.

But it also offers the opportunity to present yourself as a serious alternative to red-green-yellow.