Moscow -

Russian forces have resumed their operations on more than one axis in the Ukrainian depth and on the contact lines between the eastern provinces of Lugansk and Donetsk, and this time focused on intensive and precise strikes on US and European arms ammunition depots supplied to Ukraine, the most important of which are near the town of Belenkye in Odessa Governorate, south of Odessa. Western Ukraine.

The fighting fronts witnessed significant progress by the forces of the so-called "republics" of Lugansk and Donetsk, supported by Russia, on the Staromaisky axis in the Donetsk region, and these forces announced the "liberation" of about 250 residential areas.

Two Ukrainian soldiers on the front line with the Lugansk and Donetsk regions (French)

What's after Donbass?

Despite the absence of the Russian official response to the statement of the Ukrainian army, which accused Moscow of regrouping its units to launch an attack on the city of Slaviansk in Donetsk province, and to strengthen its defensive positions in the areas it controls in southern Ukraine, the statement of Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov about a change in the geography of the Russian military operation due to The provision of long-range weapons to Kyiv by the West leaves no doubt that the geopolitical task of the Russian forces is no longer confined to the Donbass region.

Also, the words of Dmitry Medvedev, Deputy Chairman of the Russian National Security Council, that Ukraine may disappear from the map as a result of current events, is in favor of the opinion that Russia is paving the way for expanding its operations and raising the ceiling of its goals there.


a turning point for myself

In any case, since the announcement of control of Luhansk at the beginning of this month, attention has begun to turn to Donetsk, which, along with Luhansk, constitutes the Donbass region.

The importance of the expected Donetsk battle and the battles in southern Ukraine in general, is that controlling them will enable Russia to realize its new old dream of establishing a land corridor connecting it to the Crimea, as well as to the strategic power stations located on the territory of the disputed region.

All this comes at a time when various Russian sources assert that the "negative psychological turning point" on the Ukrainian side in the course of the war has already occurred.

In their opinion, this is due to a group of statements issued by several Western capitals, and by current and former officials, that reflect a decline in the enthusiasm of the decision-making circles there regarding providing support to Kiev that would enable it to revolutionize the balance of military power in its favour.

This may be what is meant by the statement of US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin at a meeting of the International Contact Group on Kyiv assistance, that the fighting on the territory of Ukraine has entered a decisive stage, or what the former intelligence officer in the US Department of Defense Rebecca Kofler said a few days ago that “there is nothing Enough money or weapons with Ukraine to win the war, because the Russian army is immeasurably stronger than the Ukrainian army,” adding that “Washington’s $54 billion allocation, emptying its arms and ammunition depots, has not led to any significant result.”

A shopping center destroyed by a Russian raid in Donetsk Province (Anatolia)

war of attrition

Military expert Alexander Gilin says that Russia is ready to enter the next stage of the military operation, unlike Ukraine, and that Moscow has enough means to force Ukraine to make peace.

But he believes in an interview with Al-Jazeera Net that the recent statements of senior Russian officials indicate that their forces are close to starting a "war of attrition" that goes beyond the eastern regions and part of the south, to reach deeper regions in Ukraine.

It is likely that the operation will begin with a controlled and sudden attack and with new combat tactics, ensuring quick and complete control of the Donbass region and the strip overlooking the Black Sea.


tactical error

Military expert Jilin believes that the West made a tactical mistake by delaying the supply of quality weapons to Ukraine since the first weeks of the war, which began on February 24, 2022, which gave Russian forces a logical justification to expand their control over more Ukrainian lands, in which the presence of these weapons could constitute A danger to the Russian military and civilians in general there.

In parallel, Gilin points out that the Ukrainian naval fleet has become almost neutral within the current rules of engagement, and that maintaining it in good condition requires modernization and a high cost, and in his opinion, any loans from Western countries "will not be able to bring the fleet back to life."

Ukrainian forces conduct maneuvers in the Kherson region, near the border with Crimea (Reuters)

new reality

As for the director of the International Center for Political Analysis, Denis Krkodinov, it is likely that the geography of the battles in the next stage will be concentrated in Donetsk, Kherson (south) and Zaporizhia (south), and not in the entire Ukrainian territory, because Russia is not interested in further escalation with the West and giving it the opportunity to fight against it until the last Ukrainian, In the words of Krkodinov.

But Krkodinov added - in an interview with Al Jazeera Net - that all subsequent military plans will be governed by political calculations, including the repercussions of the war on Ukraine, and its financial and military support for European conditions and interests, which, in his opinion, will necessitate a reverse reaction in Europe, which may include social unrest and the fall of governments.

Regarding the hypothesis of a war of attrition, Krkodinov believes that it depends on the nature of the weapons that Washington and London intend to deliver to Kyiv, their ability to influence the course of the battles, and the safety of the Russian forces that will be within the scope of targeting Western weapons.

The expert concludes that the Russian goal of the war in Ukraine is no longer limited to disarmament and control of the entire Donbass or other regions of Ukraine, as much as it is to create a new geopolitical reality that imposes a new and balanced security system in Europe and the world, taking into account the interests of all powers, and ending the era of the pole the one.