Diversifying suppliers will not be enough: the European Union will have to reduce its demand for gas more quickly than today to build up its stocks, if it wants to survive the winter without Russian gas, the director of the Agency warned on Monday. International Energy Agency (IEA), "worried about the coming months.

"We should not just count on non-Russian gas resources: these will simply not be enough in volume to replace deliveries from Russia", underlines Fatih Birol, in an article published by his organization.

"And this even if the supply from Norway and Azerbaijan is flowing in at maximum capacity, even if deliveries from North Africa are approaching their level of last year, and even if the growth of LNG flows maintains its rate of first semester ".

Moscow has already started to turn off the tap and the Europeans fear a total disruption of deliveries in reaction to the sanctions imposed against the invasion of Ukraine.

For Fatih Birol, this is "a red alert" for the EU.

The economist notes “progress” to free itself from Russian dependence, “but not enough, especially on the demand side, to prevent Europe from finding itself today in an incredibly precarious situation”.

Complicated situation on NordStrem does not restart

According to an analysis by the IEA, the continent should store 12 billion cubic meters of additional gas within three months (enough to fill 130 LNG tankers), to take shelter with stocks 90% full.

But this also assumes that the Nord Stream gas pipeline, the main delivery route through the Baltic Sea and currently under maintenance, is well restarted by the Russians on Thursday July 21, and this until the beginning of October.

If it wasn't, the situation would be even more complicated.

But "we can not rule out a complete stop", says Fatih Birol.

Faced with this, the IEA urgently recommends measures such as auction systems for the sale of gas to industrialists, temporarily favoring other sources of electricity, including coal or oil, or even smoothing consumption peaks by gas and electricity via increased European coordination.

Electricity demand can be reduced by setting standards in air conditioning, for example, public buildings in mind, adds Fatih Birol, who calls on “governments to prepare populations” through campaigns, because “every action counts.

Simple gestures like lowering the heating by a few degrees can save the same amount of gas as that provided by Nord Stream over a winter.”

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