Thomas Friedman: The Ukraine war is about to enter a new phase, the most dangerous since its beginning

The prominent American journalist writer Thomas Friedman said that the war in Ukraine is about to enter a new stage, the most dangerous since the beginning of the conflict, pointing to the improvement in the performance of the Russian forces compared to their faltering performance - which killed thousands of Russian soldiers - at the beginning of the war.

In an article in the American New York Times, Friedman highlighted that his belief that the war is about to enter a new phase is based on the fact that despite the losses of the Russian army, which lost many of its soldiers and generals during the war, Ukraine's steadfast allies in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) ) Tired of the repercussions of the war.

He explained that the war contributed to a significant increase in the prices of natural gas, gasoline and foodstuffs in Europe, and if the situation continues in this way during the winter season, many families in the European Union may be forced to choose between heating and food.

Winter is Putin's friend!

Accordingly, Friedman believes that the new phase of the war is what he called the "winter strategy" of Russian President Vladimir Putin versus the "summer strategy" of NATO.

He said it was clear that Putin was ready to continue the war in Ukraine, in the hope that high inflation in energy and food prices in Europe would eventually splinter NATO.

Friedman believes that Putin is betting on a number of factors, including lower temperatures in Europe during the winter than usual, a decline in global oil and gas supplies with high energy prices, and frequent power cuts in several countries due to lack of energy, because this is likely to carry members European NATO to pressure Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to conclude an agreement with Russia - whatever its nature - to stop the fighting.

"Putin must be telling his exhausted soldiers and generals: Just go on until Christmas, winter is our friend," Friedman said.

The writer believes that Putin's strategy is valid, as a report published by the New York Times last week said that White House officials fear that a new round of European sanctions aimed at limiting the flow of Russian oil to Europe by the end of the year will lead to a new rise in energy prices, which will constitute a blow. For consumers to exacerbate their suffering, it may also lead to a sharp contraction in the economy of the United States and other Western countries.

This chain of events may exacerbate the acute food crisis afflicting countries around the world.

The same report also indicates that the efforts of NATO and the European Union to reduce dependence on Russian oil exports to Europe may lead to a rise in oil prices of about $ 200 a barrel or more.

Natural gas prices in Europe have risen by about 700% since the beginning of last year, which has put the European continent on the brink of economic recession.

NATO and the "Summer Strategy"

In contrast to the winter strategy - as the writer calls it - adopted by Putin, Friedman believes that officials in NATO, the United States and Ukraine think with a logic that says, "Yes, winter may be our enemy. But summer and autumn may be our friends, if we can inflict significant damage on Putin's tired army." Now, he will at least accept a ceasefire."

He also believes that this strategy is also not bad, because Putin may have made some gains now in eastern Ukraine, but its cost is very high, as many military analyzes indicate that the Russian army lost about 15,000 soldiers in less than 5 months during the war, which is An amazing number.

The number of wounded may be double that number, and about a thousand Russian tanks were destroyed.

Friedman said that administration officials told him that Putin did not have enough forces at the moment to try to get out of eastern Ukraine and seize the port of Odessa, so that he could impose a naval blockade on Ukraine and stifle its economy.

He indicated that Putin did not want to increase conscription;

Because that will reveal to his people that what he said was just a "special military operation" in Ukraine is a much bigger war, and even worse.

Friedman said that it is clear that NATO hopes that the Ukrainian military can use the new advanced M142 artillery missile systems or HIMARs missiles recently supplied by the United States to Kyiv, to inflict further human and logistical damage to Russian forces in Ukraine. During the summer and fall seasons.

Which, if achieved, would not only stop the advance of Russian forces, but also lead to the loss of the territories they controlled, which could lead the Russian president to agree to a ceasefire, exchange prisoners, allow humanitarian evacuations, and provide better conditions for Ukrainian food exports.

These would help reduce inflation, and thus relieve pressure on Ukraine's European allies who might seek to push for any deal with Putin to end the war.

The writer believes that there are no indications at the moment that Putin is ready to conclude a final peace agreement, but it may be possible to get him to agree to a ceasefire through the aforementioned scenario, which would be a relief for energy and food markets.

Friedman concluded his article by saying, "Given all these reasons, the war in Ukraine is about to enter its most dangerous phase since the beginning of the Russian invasion in February."

It is a phase based on Putin's "winter strategy" as opposed to NATO's "summer strategy".