(International Observation) What chain reaction will Abe's assassination trigger in Japanese politics?
China News Agency, Beijing, July 10 (Reporter Zhu Chenxi) Former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was shot and shot while delivering a speech in Nara City on the 8th, and died of his injuries.
What chain reaction will this trigger in Japanese politics?
In this regard, Chinese international affairs experts analyzed in an interview with a reporter from China News Agency that Abe's assassination will have a significant impact on Japan's Senate election, the division and integration of factions within the Liberal Democratic Party, and Japanese politics.
On July 8, local time, former Japanese Prime Minister Abe was shot during a speech in Nara City.
Japanese media said the suspect has been taken into custody by the police.
The picture shows former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe lying on the ground after being shot during an election campaign in Nara.
The most special post-war Japanese Senate election
The assassination of Abe was a rare and vicious incident in post-war Japan. Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida called the assassination a "despicable atrocity".
July 10 is the day of the Japanese Senate election. Japan ushered in the first Senate election in the postwar history under the background of the assassination of the former leader.
After Abe's assassination, Kishida said that he "will not yield to violence" and will conduct election campaigns as scheduled.
The top leaders of the ruling and opposition parties in Japan also resumed elections in their respective forms on the 9th.
Liu Jiangyong, a professor at the Department of International Relations at Tsinghua University, said that Abe's assassination will have a subtle impact on the election, and the Liberal Democratic Party may win some sympathy votes.
"During the electoral process, the leader of the largest faction of the Liberal Democratic Party was shot and killed. Voters may vote for emotional factors instead of rational understanding of the party's policy options."
The event brought a change to the electoral atmosphere.
Analysis believes that after Abe's assassination, the Japanese media mostly gave positive comments to his characters, which formed an inducement for voters' psychological inclinations.
"After the incident, all political parties condemned extreme behaviors, assassination incidents, and perpetrators. In this way, the whole issue of painting style has changed." Liu Jiangyong pointed out that in terms of policy debate, some political parties are no longer good after Abe's assassination. Criticism and opposition to its policies have shifted the electoral focus.
In the short term, the impact of Abe's assassination is to disrupt the rhythm of the Senate election.
Before the case, the Liberal Democratic Party had already dominated the election, and it may further expand its advantage after the case.
Amending the constitution and getting rid of the "post-war system" is Abe's political proposition.
According to Kyodo News, Kishida said in an interview with the media at his official residence on the 8th that "I will earnestly inherit Abe's ideas."
Kishida once said that the goal of the Liberal Democratic Party and its co-governing Komeito is to win more than half of the 55 seats. Analysts believe that, affected by the Abe assassination, the Liberal Democratic Party is likely to win an overwhelming victory.
Whether the constitutional revision forces can achieve the goal of two-thirds of the seats required for constitutional revision in the Senate election has become the biggest concern.
Where will "Abenomics" go?
After Abe became the Prime Minister of Japan for the second time, in order to survive the so-called "lost 20 years" after the collapse of the bubble economy, he launched the "three arrows" of "Abenomics", namely radical loose monetary policy and active fiscal policy. , and structural reforms to boost growth.
Regarding where "Abenomics" will go, Liu Jiangyong said that Japan will continue to continue "Abenomics" in the short term.
Data map: Former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.
"Because the Liberal Democratic Party, as the ruling party, mainly emphasizes the positive impact of Abenomics in the election. Therefore, in the short term after the election, the policy will continue to be implemented to achieve policy continuity." Liu Jiangyong said that under the policy , The Bank of Japan has greatly printed the yen, and the yen has developed in the direction of depreciation, which has improved the profitability of export companies and helped the rapid recovery of the stock market. Most large Japanese companies support "Abenomics".
At the same time, the Governor of the Bank of Japan Haruhiko Kuroda inherited the mantle of "Abenomics", and Kuroda continued to promote the quantitative easing strategy through the Bank of Japan.
It is unrealistic for the Japanese government to substantially overturn "Abenomics" in the short term, and personnel factors will also have an impact on whether "Abenomics" can continue to be implemented.
However, in the long run, "Abenomics" has exposed its shortcomings and has not restored the vitality of consumption and investment among Japanese people.
Due to the excessive dependence on imports of core raw materials and energy, the proportion of Japanese households' expenditure in the energy field has continued to increase since 2020.
Liu Jiangyong introduced that although the Japanese economy has not been stimulated for many years, Japanese prices have hardly risen.
Under Abe's administration, prices have generally risen.
As the stock market rose and the profits of big companies increased, the Japanese people did not taste the sweetness, and there was a phenomenon of inequality between the rich and the poor.
In this regard, the Kishida cabinet also proposed the concept of "new capitalism" to improve the distribution problem.
The analysis believes that whether it will "change its course" will need to wait for the dust of the Senate election to settle, and the Kishida government's ruling foundation may be stabilized before it can be mentioned on the agenda.
In addition, the monetary policy of Europe and the United States will also be a factor for the Japanese government to adjust its policy.
The factional forces of the Liberal Democratic Party may rise and fall
The assassination of Abe has caused a huge shock to the Japanese political arena. In the long run, its impact will have a major impact on the power balance and distribution of power among the major factions in the ruling party after the Senate election.
Abe is the leader of the "Abe faction", the largest faction in the Liberal Democratic Party, while the "Aso faction" is the third largest faction in the Liberal Democratic Party. The two factions continue to influence the trend of Japanese politics.
Liu Jiangyong believes that in the long run, the forces within the Liberal Democratic Party will usher in a differentiated combination, one will grow and one will grow.
The "Abe faction" is likely to fall into a state of "leaderless" in the short term, while the leader of the "Aso faction" Taro Aso is already old.
The current Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's ruling position will be more consolidated, and his decision-making space will also increase.
Liu Jiangyong said that the death of the former head of the street is the first time in Japan's post-war history, which will have an impact on Japan's election culture.
In the future, Japan will strengthen security measures for political election activities.
What impact will Abe's assassination have on Japan's diplomatic and security lines?
Liu Jiangyong believes that the incident has little impact on Japan's established line. After Abe's assassination, Kishida made it clear that he "will effectively inherit Abe's ideas". Kishida was the foreign minister during Abe's long-term administration. There is a high probability that the basic direction of the policy will not change due to Abe’s exit.
After Abe's assassination, the factional forces of the Liberal Democratic Party will usher in one change and another, and reorganization is brewing.
Where Japanese politics will go is worthy of further attention.
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