An economist from the American research firm Eurasia Group, which analyzes international affairs and announces "the 10 biggest risks of this year" every January, said in an interview with NHK that it should be added to the top class in the second half of this year. I gave inflation as a risk.


And the United States has said that there is a high probability that the rate hike will lead to a recession with a high probability of 75%.

The interviewee was Robert Kahn, an economist who oversees risk analysis of the global economy at the Eurasia Group.



The research company announced in January that the number one "10 major risks of this year" was the failure of China's "Zero Corona" policy, and Russia's risk was number five.



"Russia's risk should have been higher. I had the hope that a compromise could be found in the negotiations with Russia," Khan said.



On the other hand, he cited global inflation as a top-class risk to add in the second half of the year.



"Inflation was caused by the combination of economic normalization from the new Corona, logistics turmoil, Russia's military invasion, soaring energy prices and the food crisis," Khan said. It's like walking so as not to break it. "



On top of that, Mr. Khan said that a rapid rate hike in the United States would lead to a recession with a high probability of 75% next year.



While 25% could be in a severe recession, we expect inflation to subside with rate hikes, so 50% will have a mild recession.

“The whereabouts of the Chinese economy continue to be a major risk to the world”

The Eurasia Group's "10 Greatest Risks of the Year" raised the possibility that China's "Zero Corona" policy would fail in order to thoroughly contain the infection of the new coronavirus as the biggest risk. ..



Kahn predicts that the current "Zero Corona" policy will be difficult to mitigate from fall to next year, when China may mass-produce and spread mRNA vaccines, while the government will do various things. We predict that the expected effects will not be obtained due to the effects of lockdown even with such economic stimulus measures.



"The slowdown in China's economy will spread throughout the world and contribute to geopolitical risks," he said, noting that the future of China's economy remains a major risk to the world.



He also commented on how China would respond to Russia's military invasion: "It is clear that military support for Russia risks isolating China from the global market. I think China will decide not to provide support because it is not in the interests of China. "