Foreign Policy: The Russian presence in Libya is more important to Putin than his conflicts in Ukraine

in the American Foreign Policy website states that the Russian presence in Libya, represented by the Wagner militia mercenaries, may be more important to Russian President Vladimir Putin than his conflicts in Ukraine

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Wagner's engraved position in Libya, he said, fits with Russia's broader determination: to pressure European NATO members to reach different political outcomes by controlling nearby energy sources and sowing instability on their borders.

The article - written by Robert Iuniaki, chief expert and analyst in the Middle East and North Africa affairs of the Navanti Analysis Group - explained that what is said about the tactical adjustments by transferring some Wagner forces from Libya to Ukraine reflects a radical change in Russia's position on Libya is incorrect.

Wagner is well established in Libya

Iuniaki stressed that Wagner is still well-established in and around major military bases and oil facilities in Libya as hired weapons for the Libyan National Army led by retired Major General Khalifa Haftar, describing it as an important part of Haftar's campaign to wrest control of the Libyan state from governments and forces stationed in Tripoli.

The writer explained that Libya's proven oil reserves amount to 48 billion barrels and natural gas 53 trillion cubic feet, and it also owns 39% of the total oil reserves in Africa, and thus Libya is a potential energy giant on the doorstep of the European continent. Continent (primarily Italy, Spain and Germany), production reached more than 1 million barrels per day in 2021.

Since 2020, the Wagner militia has moved into a position to obstruct all current production in Libya and any future effort by the European Union looking to reduce energy dependence in Russia by taking advantage of energy in Libya.

Wagner in Libya .. a strategic paper for Putin

European Union leaders had expressed their interest in investing in Libyan energy infrastructure to reduce dependence on Russian gas, but Wagner's presence puts the Kremlin in a position to control these future calculations or at least a card to play in the negotiations.

The writer pointed out that Haftar's forces, with the help of Wagner, impeded the Tripoli-based government's access to oil revenues, and last April, protesters allied with Haftar's forces forcibly closed the southwestern oil fields in Sharara and El Feel, as well as the ports in Zueitina and Marsa Al Buriqa. , before expanding to the oil stations in Ras Lanuf, Sidr and Naft al-Sarier.

He said that the global oil markets had already felt the crisis of the oil closure in early June, and according to most reports, the blockade had reduced Libyan oil production from about 1.2 million barrels per day to between 300,000 and 400,000 barrels per day.

Although this closure comes from the political crisis in Libya, where the confrontation rages between the Prime Minister in Tripoli, Abdel Hamid Dabaiba, and Fathi Bashagha, the parallel prime minister in Sirte who is backed by Haftar’s army, it is certain that Wagner mercenaries deployed around the oil facilities tacitly agree to the continuation of the siege.

The timing of closing oil facilities serves Moscow

The writer pointed out that the timing of the closure of Libyan oil facilities undoubtedly serves Moscow. In the current energy markets, withdrawing nearly one million barrels from the market per day increases pressure on the energy crisis in Europe and its countries that are considering a shift away from Russian energy.

He said that Russia's political influence is evident in the confrontation between the Libyans, as Moscow is the only capital that officially recognizes the Pashaga government, and when an article appeared in the British newspaper (The Times) in early May last May criticizing the invasion of Ukraine, Pashaga was forced to retreat and deny what Wrote.

European disagreement over Wagner's role

However - the writer adds - there is another point that Wagner exploits, which is that some European countries - led by France - view Haftar's forces as a force to achieve stability and a stronghold against "terrorist" activity, commenting that this perspective confuses the collective interests of Europe, and raises questions in capitals Like Paris on whether the benefit of Wagner's role in Libya outweighs its threat to NATO.

In the end - the writer stresses - that Wagner's presence in Libya amounts to a destabilizing factor even without engaging in an open conflict, and shows the strategic depth of the Kremlin in the country, and the emergence of parallel governments in Libya last March provided opportunities for Wagner to destabilize the country from While supporting Haftar’s army offensive, its presence was in itself a politicized and polarized issue that helped drive the divide between Libya’s east and west.