China News Agency, Beijing, July 10th: The conflict between Russia and Ukraine accelerates the evolution of the world pattern and stimulates the sense of multinational strategic autonomy?

　　Author Chen Wenling, Chief Economist, China Center for International Economic Exchanges

　　The conflict between Russia and Ukraine is still continuing and escalating, with far-reaching impacts.

Its ground battlefield is in Ukraine, but the front is in the world.

It is not only a contest between Russia and the United States in Europe, but also a contest between the North and the South; it is not only a continuation of the Cold War, but also a prelude to a major change unseen in a century; it will not only cause many current problems in the world, but also will be an important change in the world pattern from gradual change to sudden change. variable.

Data map: The streets of Kharkiv, Ukraine, are full of wolves.

　　In 1945, the United States led the reconstruction of the international order, promoted the establishment of the three major institutions of the United Nations, the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, and established a post-war international governance framework based on peaceful development.

　　But now it is the original dominant builder and defender, the United States, who is trying to destroy it.

As the instigator and fueler of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the United States aims to "kill four birds with one stone": use the war between Ukraine and Russia to reconstruct a powerful NATO controlled by the United States; completely cut off the economic ties between Russia and Europe, so that Russia "Becoming a world outcast", at the same time creating an energy crisis and snatching the European energy market; accelerating the return of the US dollar and transferring the US inflation crisis, debt crisis, domestic social crisis, etc. Weapons and ammunition produced by arms dealers.

　　The United States started wars on three fronts at the same time: one is to use NATO and the European Union to directly promote the division and confrontation between Russia and Europe; the other is to use the power of the United Nations and other countries in the world to form a trend of comprehensive condemnation, severe sanctions and strategic suppression of Russia; After holding off Russia, it turned to focus on attacking, containing, and containing China.

　　The Russian-Ukrainian conflict has had more impact on the world landscape and the global economy than any war in recent decades.

In the short term, the war between Russia and Ukraine, the war between Russia and the United States, the war between Russia and Europe, and the war between China and the United States behind the conflict will affect the stability of the world order.

The energy, currency, market, and rules disputes behind the conflict, as well as large-scale sanctions and counter-sanctions, have caused serious damage to the global industrial chain and supply chain, and will have a strong impact on the world economy.

　　In this conflict, Ukraine is the biggest loser: it acts as a cannon fodder and pawn for the United States. The war has caused civilian casualties, family separations, and immeasurable economic losses. It is also difficult to join NATO and the European Union.

The second loser is the European Union: as the conflict progresses and the United States initiates sanctions, the European Union’s economy and the euro will suffer heavy losses, energy and food prices will skyrocket, supply crises will arise, and social panic will arise; the European Union’s dependence on the United States will be strengthened, and European strategic autonomy will suffer. to a serious blow.

Russia has also consumed a lot of human, material and financial resources and suffered unprecedented sanctions, and subsequent condemnation and attacks against Russia will continue to ferment.

　　The biggest winner now appears to be the United States.

The United States burned the war on other people's territory, returned the dollar to its own territory, and seized the European market into its own hands.

But the United States is the loser in terms of morality, image, and credibility. As the situation develops, it may lose itself in the quagmire of Ukraine.

Data map: On July 4, local time, Washington, USA, the National Mall.

Photo by China News Agency reporter Chen Mengtong

　　From a long-term perspective, the superposition of existing contradictions and incremental contradictions in the Russia-Ukraine conflict will become a turning point in promoting the evolution of the entire world pattern, accelerating the great differentiation, reorganization and evolution of the world pattern.

1. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine will start the process of countries with resources and manufacturing as the main body to speed up the process of gaining equal status in the world.

　　After the war, a related international order was formed with the virtual economy of the United States and the West as the main body to harvest the world's wealth.

The United States and Western countries only retain key technologies at the top of the supply chain, and use finance, branding, intellectual property rights, basic research capabilities, and favorable international rules and standards to transfer production capacity to other countries and regions, and always keep themselves at the top of the global value chain. .

With economic weapons alone, they can make other countries willingly and continuously flood them with wealth.

　　The conflict between Russia and Ukraine is superimposed on the new crown pneumonia epidemic, coupled with the strong sanctions of the United States and the West, countries with resources and manufacturing advantages are forced to resist, and will accelerate their transformation into comprehensive national strength and gradually gain economic status equal to that of the United States and the West.

This is the economic basis for the historical trend of rising in the east and falling in the west, and rising in the south and falling in the north.

The era of obtaining low-cost resources and energy and maintaining low inflation and high welfare, and the era of robbing other countries' material wealth by banknotes that have lost their national credit, are passing away.

2. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has objectively stimulated the strategic autonomy of most countries and regions.

　　During the Cold War, the two camps faced serious confrontation, with most countries taking sides.

In the decades following the end of the Cold War, a few world or quasi-world powers typically dominated global affairs, with most of the rest in silence.

　　In the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the United States took the lead in launching an "unrestricted war", sanctioning Russia beyond the rules, strictness, and territory, while Russia used oil, natural gas, grain, fertilizer, rare raw materials and rubles as weapons to counter it, as if once Strong collision of tectonic plates.

The United States, NATO and some allied countries and regions have launched multiple rounds of sanctions against Russia, but among the more than 190 member states of the United Nations, more than 140 countries have not participated.

This shows that most countries no longer follow the baton of the United States, and the already hardened world plate with American hegemony as the glue has been violently smashed.

　　The countries that originally depended on the United States will be further divided, as has been shown by the performance of Britain, France, Germany and India in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.

The strategic autonomy of a group of middle powers has shifted from implicit subconsciousness to explicit political demands.

Turkey, Australia, South Africa, Egypt, Mexico, Brazil, Indonesia, etc., all play a unique role in regional affairs and surrounding situations, and balance the forces of all parties.

The Russian-Ukrainian conflict has once again awakened the inherent needs of these countries for strategic autonomy, which will affect the further adjustment and evolution of the world pattern.

Data map: On March 7, local time, the United Nations Security Council deliberated on the humanitarian issue of Ukraine at the United Nations Headquarters in New York.

Photo by China News Agency reporter Liao Pan

3. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has accelerated the arrival of a new type of economic globalization.

　　So far, the world has experienced three rounds of economic globalization led by the United States and the West.

Globalization after the Vienna Conference in 1814 was version 1.0; version 2.0 was based on the confrontation between NATO and the Warsaw Pact after World War II; version 3.0 was marked by China's embedding in the global industrial chain and supply chain, and 149 smaller countries around the world also joined. World division of labor transactions.

Generally speaking, the US and the West have always been in a dominant position in the global division of labor, and are also guaranteed by the international rules of the international order that can obtain more global wealth.

　　The new crown epidemic, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the game of great powers, and globalization are hindered.

The speed and extent of globalization and re-engineering will ultimately depend on the countries and regions that produce material products and supply energy and resources, on the speed of developing countries catching up, on the positive spillover efficiency of science and technology in serving human beings, and on The vast majority of countries and regions in the world are interconnected, consulted, built and shared.

In the end, the world will be led by major developing countries such as China, Russia and India, together with developed countries that uphold world peace and development, to lead developing countries, promote the improvement of the international order and rules that conform to the fundamental interests of most countries, and further promote the process of a new type of globalization.

Fourth, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine may become a turning point in the history of ending US hegemony.

　　The United States has maintained its hegemonic position for a long time by relying on the U.S. dollar, U.S. debt, the U.S. military, scientific and technological innovation capabilities and the export of values.

Since the Cold War, especially in recent years, the US global strategy has been aimed at containing China and Russia, restricting and using Europe, Japan, India and other countries and regions, intimidating other countries and regions, and maintaining global hegemony.

　　The United States is accustomed to establishing an imaginary enemy and placing its hegemonic status above the international order and rules.

It is the world's only "sanctioning superpower" and the world's only military power.

A series of strategic mistakes made by the United States in modern times have not only seriously depleted its national strength, but also severely damaged its credit and image as a great power.

Most countries and regions are looking for a way out of American hegemony.

The conflict between Russia and Ukraine will accelerate the transformation of the world's one superpower and multi-power structure to multi-polarity.

On March 29, local time, the Russian and Ukrainian delegations started a new round of face-to-face negotiations in Istanbul, Turkey.

The picture shows Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan speaking before the talks.

5. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine will become an important variable to promote the reshaping of the geopolitical pattern.

　　The Russian-Ukrainian conflict opened the curtain of global disorder and gave birth to new geopolitical relations.

Even if the conflict ends, the series of crises caused by it will continue to ferment, not only because the contradictions between the United States, Russia, Europe, Ukraine and other parties have been difficult to reconcile, but after repeated contests, all parties are reluctant to seek their own positioning under the existing pattern .

After competition and reflection, Russia will once again carry out in-depth win-win cooperation with Europe, and Russia and Ukraine will eventually reconnect with the national sentiment and cultural origin of "continuous cutting, returning to chaos".

The Asia-Europe plate will be connected again, and China will form a more stable geographical relationship with Europe, Russia, Central Asia and West Asia, and Southeast Asia, Northeast Asia, and South Asia.

6. The world will go to Nirvana in the direction of building a community with a shared future for mankind after experiencing pain.

　　The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has caused a large number of casualties and displacement, which once again brought continuous serious negative impact on the post-pandemic world economic recovery.

However, the economic ties between countries in the world have never been as close as they are today, people-to-people exchanges, cultural exchanges and the development of the international community have never been so frequent and rapid as today, and the common challenges and problems faced by mankind have never been more severe than today. Not as urgent as it is today.

　　China's world outlook, values ​​and development outlook are and will further influence the world. China's strategies and actions are in sharp contrast with hegemonic countries, and have become an important reference for people of all countries to evaluate and identify as a major country.

In terms of security, China believes that it is necessary to adhere to a common, comprehensive, cooperative and sustainable security concept, and that mankind is an inseparable security community; in terms of governance, China proposes to practice the global governance concept of extensive consultation, joint contribution and shared benefits, and firmly maintain the The international system with the United Nations at its core and the international order based on international law adhere to true multilateralism; economic globalization has encountered "adverse winds and countercurrents", but economic globalization is still an objective requirement for the development of productive forces and an irresistible historical trend, which must be promoted Build an open world economy, increase the representation and voice of emerging market countries and developing countries, and ensure equal rights, equal rules, and equal opportunities for all countries.

　　The Chinese concept, Chinese initiative, and Chinese plan conform to the trend of the times for peace, development, cooperation and win-win, help to establish a fairer and more sustainable international order and international rules, and will have an increasing impact on the world.

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About the Author:

Chen Wenling

　　Famous Chinese economists and experts from famous think tanks.

Researcher, professor and doctoral supervisor; Chief Economist, Deputy Director of the Executive Bureau and Deputy Director of the Academic Committee of the China Center for International Economic Exchanges; Experts from the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Commerce, the Administration of Traditional Chinese Medicine and other ministries and commissions.

Member of the 50-person Forum in China, member of the Belt and Road Forum of 100, member of the China Circulation G30 Forum, member of the 30-person Forum of China Digital Trade; doctoral tutor of Nankai University, University of International Business and Economics, and Beijing Normal University.

Vice President of Chinese Poetry Society and member of Chinese Calligraphers Association.