Our reporter Chai Yaxin Guan Xiaopu
Extreme weather is hitting frequently.
Recently, the highest temperature in many places in northern my country has broken the extreme value, and many places in the south have been hit by heavy rainfall, resulting in serious water conditions.
Since June, high temperatures have raged in many European countries and the western United States, and some areas have set new records for the same period.
World Meteorological Organization spokesman Naris said that if greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise, global warming will be even greater, and the current situation is only a harbinger of the future.
Active adaptation is equally important while mitigating climate change.
17 departments including the Ministry of Ecology and Environment recently jointly issued the "National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy 2035".
What is the significance of this strategy, and what new paths and goals does it propose for China to adapt to climate change?
The reporter interviewed Chao Qingchen, director and researcher of the National Climate Center, and Huang Gang, a second-level researcher at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences.
Global climate instability has intensified, and its impact on natural ecosystems and economic and social systems has become increasingly serious
Reporter: What are the characteristics of global climate change?
Why is climate change and extreme weather one of the world's most important medium- and long-term risks?
Chao Qingchen: Global climate instability has intensified, and its impact on natural ecosystems and economic and social systems has become increasingly serious.
According to the sixth assessment report of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), global warming in the last 50 years is occurring at a rate not seen in the past 2000 years.
The World Meteorological Organization released the "2021 State of the Global Climate Report" in May this year, emphasizing that in 2021, four key indicators of climate change, including greenhouse gas concentrations, sea level rise, ocean heat and ocean acidification, all set records, showing that human activities are causing global warming. Land, ocean and atmospheric changes have lasting and detrimental impacts on sustainable development and ecosystems.
Since 2006, the World Economic Forum has successively released 16 Global Risk Reports.
The report released in January this year analyzed the frequency and impact of global risks in recent years and the next ten years. "Extreme weather" has been ranked first in the list for the past five years. "Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation Measures" "Failure" ranked the top three on the list for the past three years.
Existing research shows that the global warming trend will continue, the frequency and intensity of extreme weather and climate events are expected to further increase, and the breadth and depth of climate change impacts and risks will also expand.
Huang Gang: In recent years, global climate change has presented a risk of extreme changes, and extreme weather has frequently occurred. Last year's heavy rain event in Zhengzhou and floods in Shanxi showed that climate change cannot be ignored.
Over the past 50 years, disasters related to weather, climate and water accounted for 50% of all natural disasters, 45% of deaths and 74% of economic losses.
Due to the impact of climate change, the number of disasters has increased fivefold and disaster losses have increased more than sevenfold.
The content of carbon dioxide is also increasing year by year.
In the past 100 years, global temperature fluctuations have increased due to the massive burning of fossil fuels and large-scale deforestation.
Over the past half century, the increase in anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases has led to an intensification of the greenhouse effect.
Warming is expected to continue through the middle of this century.
Reporter: Why have extreme weather and climate events in my country increased in recent years?
What are the impacts and hazards?
Huang Gang: The frequency change of extreme events is related to two factors. One is the influence of human activities, including greenhouse gas emissions and anthropogenic aerosols, and the other is the influence of changes in the Earth's climate system itself.
In general, human activities have contributed to global warming, leading to an increase in the frequency of extreme events.
The increase of extreme weather is a huge challenge to economic and social development, production and living order, involving many sectors and industries.
For example, an increase in extreme precipitation events will lead to an increase in the frequency of urban waterlogging, an increase in the intensity of extreme precipitation poses challenges to urban pipe network drainage, and an increase in extreme weather and climate events such as drought has a greater impact on agricultural production.
Put equal emphasis on mitigation and adaptation, actively adapt to climate change, and build a climate-adaptive society
Reporter: my country has always adhered to the concept of placing equal emphasis on mitigation and adaptation, taking active adaptation to climate change as an important part of implementing the national strategy to actively address climate change.
What are the specific connotations of "mitigation" and "adaptation"?
Why both?
Chaoqingchen: Adaptation is to reduce the adverse effects and potential risks of climate change by strengthening the risk identification and management of natural ecosystems and economic and social systems, taking adjustment measures, making full use of favorable factors and preventing unfavorable factors.
Mitigation is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and increase carbon sinks through the adjustment of energy, industry and other economic systems and natural ecosystems for a long time to stabilize and reduce atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations and slow down the rate of climate change.
Mitigation is a fundamental strategy for mitigating climate change, but adaptation is also essential to solving immediate problems.
First, climate change has already occurred, and its negative impacts cannot be minimized without adjusting for changes through adaptation.
For example, climate change has changed light, heat, and water, and the layout of agricultural planting needs to be adjusted accordingly.
There are many weather and climate disasters, and it is necessary to select varieties that are better resistant to disasters.
These are adaptation measures.
Second, it takes time for mitigation measures to take effect.
Greenhouse gases can exist for decades, centuries, or even longer. Even if emissions are reduced, past and present emissions of greenhouse gases will continue to affect changes in the elements of the climate system, and the consequences will be manifested for a long time. For example, sea levels will continue to rise in the next few hundred years.
Therefore, for existing and impending risks, adaptation measures must be used to reduce adverse impacts.
Huang Gang: Mitigation and adaptation actions are two wheels for addressing climate change, and they complement each other and are indispensable.
The current warming trend cannot be stopped or reversed, but it can be slowed down, giving biological systems and human societies more time to adapt.
Further climate change is inevitable for two reasons: First, the inertia of the climate system is large (mainly due to the slow response of the ocean), so that temperature responds only partially to increases in the concentrations of greenhouse gases already present in the atmosphere.
Even if all emissions were stopped today, the residual warming effect would continue for decades to come until the climate reaches a new equilibrium.
Second, the transition to a global economy based on fossil fuels will also take time, and greenhouse gas emissions and consequent warming will remain unavoidable.
We need both to slow down and eventually stop the rate of warming through mitigation actions, and to proactively adapt to climate change.
Reporter: The National Strategy for Adaptation to Climate Change 2035 proposes that by 2035, a “climate-adaptive society will be basically built”.
What is a "climate-resilient society"?
What do we need to prepare for?
Huang Gang: According to the description of the Action Plan for Urban Adaptation to Climate Change, the goal of building a climate-adapted city is to “a city’s ability to cope with waterlogging, drought and water shortages, high temperature and heat waves, strong winds, freezing disasters and other problems is significantly enhanced, and the city’s ability to adapt to climate change is significantly enhanced. overall enhancement".
Likewise, a climate-resilient society is one that is more resilient to changing climatic conditions.
Building a climate-resilient society requires the collective action of the government, enterprises, communities and citizens, involving all aspects of urban construction, and at the same time giving full consideration to the city's key industries and areas.
From the experience of countries around the world, the keys to the success of climate change adaptation strategies include: taking the government as the leader of climate change adaptation governance; improving the efficient coordination and communication capabilities of various regions and departments, while ensuring a certain degree of public participation; relevant policies The formulation of the policy is scientific to a certain extent, and at the same time it needs to be continuously tracked and evaluated; finally, the implementation of the policy should be adapted to local conditions to build a climate-adaptive society with local characteristics.
The IPCC also divides a complete adaptation cycle into four basic steps: assessing climate change impacts, vulnerabilities and risks, formulating adaptation plans, taking adaptation measures, and monitoring and evaluating adaptation.
This includes multiple responsibilities of the state, government, enterprises and the public.
In the context of climate change, extreme weather occurs frequently, and my country's meteorological monitoring and early warning system and the collaborative working mechanism of various departments still need to be improved.
As scientific researchers, we should also overcome difficulties, strengthen cooperation and exchanges between scientific research and business, put scientific research results into practical use, and better serve the formulation of climate risk assessment policies.
Implement new development concepts and strengthen climate change monitoring, early warning and risk management
Reporter: In 2013, my country issued the "National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy" for the first time.
Compared with the National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy 2035, what has changed and remained unchanged?
Chao Qingchen: The two strategies are separated by 9 years.
The same is that the two strategies also highly focus on climate change adaptation in key areas and regions, including water resources, ecosystems, oceans, and food security. International cooperation, etc.
The difference is that the "National Strategy for Adaptation to Climate Change 2035" more reflects the new development concept, and the layout is aimed at the new needs of the critical period of my country's basic realization of socialist modernization and the construction of a beautiful China in 2035, emphasizing adherence to "active adaptation, prevention first, The basic principles of scientific adaptation, conforming to nature, systematic adaptation, highlighting key points, coordinated adaptation, and joint governance”.
In terms of structural content, the "National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy 2035" listed a single chapter for the first time, emphasizing "strengthening climate change monitoring, early warning and risk management", which strengthened the importance of climate change monitoring, early warning and risk management from a more basic perspective. .
At the implementation level, this strategy specifically proposes to comprehensively consider factors such as climate type, regional characteristics, urban positioning, and work foundation, and adapt measures to local conditions, provide classified guidance, and deepen the pilot project of climate-adaptive city construction.
This will promote the exploration of pilot demonstration actions related to climate change adaptation in key vulnerable areas and regions, and summarize and promote replicable experience and practices.
Reporter: "National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy 2035" mentioned that "by 2035, climate change monitoring and early warning capabilities will reach the international advanced level in the same period".
How to improve the level of accurate forecasting and strengthen the early warning of extreme weather and climate events?
Chao Qingchen: Strengthening the early warning of extreme weather and climate events is a strategic requirement to ensure life safety, production development, affluent life, and good ecology, and is a strategic focus to ensure the role of the first line of defense in disaster prevention and mitigation. Precise forecasting of smart numbers predicts new business formats.
In the future, it is necessary to strengthen the comprehensive real-time monitoring of extreme weather and climate, establish multi-scale and multi-type monitoring and evaluation services from local weather to global climate, and improve the near-term, short-term, short-term to medium-term and long-term seamless and precise weather and climate forecasting and forecasting services. , and develop multi-domain integrated impact forecasting and risk early warning services.
We should strengthen our understanding of the fine characteristics of severe weather and climate, explore artificial intelligence meteorological application algorithms, and develop core technologies based on numerical model applications and autonomously controllable numerical weather forecasting and climate prediction models.
Reporter: How to strengthen the impact and risk assessment of climate change in sensitive areas and key regions?
Huang Gang: There are significant regional differences in the impacts and risks of climate change. We must improve the technical level and basic capabilities of assessment, promote the construction of my country's climate change data center system, and establish a big data sharing platform covering multiple circles and human activities. Data interconnection and interoperability of changes and their socio-economic impacts; carry out climate change impact and risk attribution, quantitative analysis, establish climate change and its impacts and risks, and climate carrying capacity assessment index system and technology system; Quantitative, dynamic climate change impact and risk assessment, and more.
Through the above efforts, we can improve our ability to assess climate change impacts and risks in key vulnerable areas such as the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and major strategic regions, and establish a relatively sound climate change impact and risk assessment system.
Discuss strategies to address the challenges of climate change and actively promote common global climate governance
Reporter: What efforts has my country made to adapt to climate change and what results have been achieved?
Chao Qingchen: my country attaches great importance to adapting to climate change.
In terms of policy system, many sectors and industries have issued action plans for adapting to climate change, incorporating the concepts and requirements of adapting to climate change into relevant policy documents such as meteorology, agriculture, water conservancy, ocean, infrastructure, urban and rural construction, and ecological and environmental protection.
The climate system observation system of heaven, earth and sky has been initially established, and the monitoring and early warning level has been continuously improved.
A number of key projects have brought benefits, and the ability to adapt to climate change in key areas has been effectively improved.
The pilot construction of adaptive cities and sponge cities has been carried out, and a number of replicable and popularized experiences have been formed.
A large number of training and publicity and education activities have been carried out, and the whole society's awareness of adapting to climate change has gradually increased.
Huang Gang: In terms of domestic governance, my country has actively implemented the national strategy to deal with climate change, promoted the adjustment of industrial structure, the optimization of energy structure, and accelerated the establishment of a "dual carbon" policy system, which has achieved remarkable results in carbon emission reduction.
Since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, my country's energy consumption intensity has been reduced by 26.2%, which is equivalent to reducing energy consumption by about 1.4 billion tons of standard coal and reducing carbon dioxide emissions by about 2.94 billion tons.
In terms of international cooperation, my country has actively promoted the common governance of global climate, and made historic and important contributions to the conclusion, signing, entry into force and implementation of the Paris Agreement; it has carried out climate dialogue and pragmatic cooperation with other countries. As of early June this year, my country has It has signed 43 cooperation documents on climate change with 38 countries, helping developing countries improve their ability to deal with climate change.
In 2021, my country and 28 countries jointly launched the "Belt and Road" green development partnership initiative, calling on all countries to take action against climate change in light of their national conditions.
Reporter: Adapting to climate change, what challenges do you face in the future?
Huang Gang: First, the basic work to adapt to climate change is not sufficient, the theoretical research and technology research and development are relatively weak, the supply of knowledge and experience is insufficient, and the awareness and ability of the whole society to adapt to climate change still needs to be improved.
Second, the analysis and assessment of the impacts and risks of climate change is insufficient. The process of climate change directly or indirectly threatening natural ecosystems and economic and social systems is very complex, and it is necessary to strengthen the analysis and assessment of key climate variables in the short, medium and long term.
Third, the governance system for adaptation to climate change needs to be improved, and the working system of climate system observation-impact risk assessment-taking adaptation actions-action effect assessment needs to be formed.
Fourth, the efforts to adapt to climate change still need to be strengthened. my country's climate types are complex and there are significant regional differences. Adaptation to climate change needs to be carried out according to local conditions, especially the ability to adapt to climate change in key regions with strong climate vulnerability needs to be improved urgently.
Chao Qingchen: Adaptation to climate change still faces many challenges.
Adapting to climate change is closely related to everyone. It requires all departments, industries and regions to improve their political positions, strengthen work responsibilities, strengthen organizational leadership, strengthen support through policy means and market mechanisms, and use scientific and technological research and development, popular science training, and talent development. improving capability.
General Secretary Xi Jinping emphasized, "Climate change has brought severe challenges to human survival and development. In the face of unprecedented difficulties in global environmental governance, the international community must, with unprecedented ambition and action, jointly discuss strategies for addressing the challenges of climate change, and seek common ground between people and the world. The Way of Harmonious Coexistence with Nature".
We must actively implement the National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy 2035, improve our ability to adapt to climate change, and strive to create a "global model" for policy actions to adapt to climate change.