The US Center for Strategic and Security Studies "Stratfor" said that India seeks, by improving its relationship with the Taliban, to reduce security risks, achieve a counterweight to Pakistan's influence, and enhance its economic opportunities in Afghanistan.
In
a news analysis
, the American Center expects this strategy to achieve only modest results due to the fragile economic and security environment in Afghanistan, as well as the enduring ideological and cultural differences between New Delhi and the Taliban.
new policy
The report pointed out that the visit of Indian officials to Afghanistan, on June 6, reflects New Delhi's new policy to deal with the Taliban government given the new geopolitical realities of the region now, as it appears that the Pakistani-backed Islamist group is ready to retain control of the landlocked state of strategic importance in foreseeable future.
During that diplomatic visit, the Indian delegation discussed with Taliban leaders ways to deliver humanitarian aid to Afghanistan.
India was one of the first countries to send aid.
The center notes that New Delhi's attempts to restore relations with Afghanistan are linked to its strategic and economic interests, after it had lost the limited political and diplomatic influence it had enjoyed in Kabul, following the Taliban's control of the reins of power in August 2021.
Pakistan influence
India's effort to find a foothold in Afghanistan is essential to countering Pakistan's presence and influence there.
The close relationship between Islamabad and the Taliban movement poses a threat to Indian interests in the region because it gives Pakistan strategic and security depth against India, according to the Stratfor report.
In addition, India's decision to exit Afghanistan due to security concerns in 2021 has opened the door for other regional players such as China, Russia, and Iran (as well as some Persian Gulf states) to engage with the Taliban, further weakening New Delhi's influence in Afghanistan.
The Strategic and Security Center believes in its analysis that the Taliban is also interested in improving its relationship with India, as it seeks to establish a stable government with important foreign economic partners in order to obtain international recognition.
New Delhi has often played a minor role in Afghanistan, providing logistical support to the Northern Alliance against the Taliban without being directly involved in the conflict.
While India evacuated its embassy staff in Kabul after the Taliban seized power last year, China and Pakistan kept their embassies open and the two countries maintained diplomatic engagement with the new government.
Aid and projects
In a first step towards dealing with this Afghan movement, India will try to gain a foothold in Afghanistan by providing humanitarian aid and financing development projects, according to Stratfor, who is likely to restore its embassy in Kabul while reducing the number of staff and services.
India is also likely to allow the import of Afghan dried fruits, as well as some agricultural and horticultural products, and to resume air transportation to and from Afghanistan.
To help the Taliban build a sustainable economy, India may resume construction of small infrastructure projects in Afghanistan, which include building new roads, healthcare clinics and power distribution networks.
pipeline project
The Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) pipeline project could also facilitate diplomatic and economic dialogue between Kabul and New Delhi in the coming years.
The project will supply gas from resource-rich Turkmenistan to Pakistan and India via Afghanistan.
However, Stratfor warns that the pipeline project - which was scheduled to be operational by 2019 - faces significant security and logistical constraints.
The US Center for Strategic and Security Studies concludes that improving relations with the Afghan government led by the Taliban would allow India to obtain Afghan minerals such as copper, coal and iron ore through the new international north-south transport corridor.