Weapons arrive in Ukraine, but what about ammunition?..."The West misjudged Russia's capabilities"

The war in Ukraine since February seems to be an arena for intense confrontations, in which artillery is a decisive factor, and the outcome of which may be linked to a key logistical element, which is ammunition stocks.

The Russian and Ukrainian armies, which want to supply all kinds of shells, from machine gun bullets to 155-mm shells and precision missiles, are waging a war to deplete these ammunitions, as well as soldiers and equipment.

The goal is to withstand a period beyond the enemy's ability.

"It is the current issue ... the question of the flow of (weapons) and stocks ... what characterizes the grinding conflict is the very high consumption of ammunition of all calibers," said a senior European officer, who asked not to be identified.

As for missiles, for example, a report by the British United Institute for Defense Services and Security Studies (RUSI) says that "Russia fires about twenty thousand 152 mm shells per day, compared to six thousand for Ukraine."

But the two sides do not have the same means.

Russia relies on distributed production on its territory with a communications network that it controls.

On the other hand, Ukraine can resist only thanks to the stocks and factories of Westerners.

In this conflict centered in eastern Ukraine, the logistical balance is tilted in the Russians' favour, "because their lines are shorter than those of the Ukrainians, whose stocks are located in the west and even outside their country," as the European officer explains.

Another advantage of the Russians is that their production is inherently adapted to their weapons while Ukraine operates many weapons and munitions from various sources from Soviet models to the latest Western weapons.

"The delivery of modern heavy weapons is complicating matters for Ukraine rather than helping it," said Alexander Khramichkin, an analyst at the Moscow Military and Political Institute.

And the British Institute's report itself considers that a Ukrainian leap cannot depend on "the gradual delivery of a large number of different columns of equipment."

In contrast, the report's authors say, allies should "coordinate their support around a small number of systems."

Apart from that, production capacities and remaining ammunition are on the line.

Agence France-Presse did not obtain any reliable figures.

As for guided munitions and ballistic or hypersonic missiles, it seems that Moscow is managing its stockpile carefully, according to analysts, noting that saying that it exhausted its stockpile several weeks ago was a mistake.

As for artillery shells, "the Russian defense industry has a large production capacity. The West miscalculated the Russian capabilities," according to the same report.

Regarding missiles, Philip Gross, a former member of French military intelligence who became a researcher at the Foundation for Strategic Research, told AFP, “If we imagine the Ukrainian artillery twice as large ... firing, say, ten thousand shells per day, one can think that the United States, if it were able to effectively revive its industry... It can only support these operations for a few months at this maximum intensity.”

But the ammunition war is also taking place in the factories mobilized by President Vladimir Putin, while those owned by Westerners who are officially not parties to the war, did not enter the war economy.

On the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), Vasily Kashin, a researcher at HSI University in Moscow, said that "stocks are running out and factories are not mass-producing."

He added that "the idea that NATO has unlimited reserves... is wrong even with the United States in mind," stressing that "the productive capacity of the Russian war industry is greater than that of Europe."

Experts said that Soviet weapons stocks in Eastern Europe were almost exhausted.

In the West, the conflict harms national economies.

The French Armed Forces Ministry said Tuesday that the delivery of 18 truck-mounted Caesar 155mm artillery has reduced its stockpile of this type of equipment by nearly a quarter.

It takes 18 months to make each of them, according to the company that produces it.

In an interview with AFP, NATO Deputy Secretary-General Mircea Giwana admitted Tuesday evening that he hoped the industry would "have the capacity to provide the necessary equipment.

It is a matter of concern and is open to consultation and creative solution.”

"There is an effort to increase capacity and creativity on the part of suppliers and it is going very well so far," he said.

On the other hand, Alexander Khramichkin stressed that the Russian factories "have been working day and night since the beginning of the battles."

Both Moscow and Kiev constantly emphasize the destruction of stockpiles of enemy weapons.

Britain's private military intelligence agency, Jane's, said the Ukrainians "are able to hit targets of high value, such as ammunition depots, which will make things more complicated for the Russians in the coming weeks."

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