The PSOE of Juan Espadas only managed to retain

63% of the voters

that Susana Díaz had in 2018 and 17.5% changed the ballot with the fist and the rose for that of the PP of Juanma Moreno, which translates into around 180,000 people.

These are two of the most striking data from the post-election survey published this Wednesday by the Center for Sociological Research (CIS) and which analyzes in detail the behavior of those who went to vote on June 19 in Andalusia and also the reasons of those who they didn't.

Of the

3,909 surveyed

by the CIS, 40.4% responded that they voted for the Popular Party exactly 17 days ago and 17.3% for the PSOE, while 8% gave their support to Vox, 9% to Por Andalucía. , Adelante Andalucía 5.4% and Ciudadanos, to name the most important, barely 3%.

However, the most notable is what refers to the

transfer of votes

between the previous elections, those held in December 2018, and these.

And that explains the results of the elections that gave the PP a very large absolute majority for the first time in its history.

Because the Popular Party achieved

voter loyalty

well above the rest of the formations, in such a way that 86.6% of those who voted for it in 2018 repeated the ballot last June.

But the key to success was, in addition and always according to the responses of those interviewed by the CIS, in the voters of other parties whom he managed to convince.

Moreno was

left

with

71.1% of the votes of Ciudadanos

in 2018 and 17.5% of those of the PSOE, which represents a bag of extra votes much higher than the forecasts that the PP itself handled.

But it is also that, among those who voted for Vox in 2018, 33.8% opted this time for the

popular ones

.

On the contrary, only 8.4% of those who supported the PP with their vote in 2018 chose Santiago Abascal's party on 19-J and just 1.4% chose the PSOE.

According to this survey, 46.5% of Andalusians had

decided their vote

before the electoral campaign, while 28.4% chose an option at the beginning of the campaign, during the same or hours before appearing at the polling stations.

Thus, 11.8% decided who to support "during

the last week

of the electoral campaign or "a few days before the elections". Another 7.5% opted for a party "at the beginning of the electoral campaign", while that 3.2% made a decision on the day of reflection and 5.9% on the day of the elections.

DOUBTS BETWEEN MATCHES

At the same time, the work of the CIS analyzes the different options among which the Andalusians hesitated, the majority being the group of those who debated

between PP and Vox

, which were 18.7%.

Other possibilities were those who hesitated between Por Andalucía and Adelante Andalucía, who were 15.4%, while 11.8% debated between PP and Ciudadanos and 9.6% between PSOE and Por Andalucía.

Between PP and PSOE were 6.9% of the voters, while 6% were thinking between the PSOE and Adelante Andalucía.

As for the

reasons

that led the voters to opt for one or the other option, ideological or partisan affinity influenced 32.3%, the electoral program in 22.4%, management capacity in 21.3 % and trust in the honesty of the candidate in 15.1%.

Conforms to The Trust Project criteria

Know more

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  • Forward Andalusia

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  • Through Andalusia

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  • Juan Manuel Moreno Bonilla

  • Santiago Abascal Count

  • CIS survey

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