Foreign Policy article: Is the use of nuclear weapons still taboo?

An American political science professor warned that fears of a nuclear war between the United States and Russia have returned sharply after they had receded after Mikhail Gorbachev - the last leader of the Soviet Union - declared in June 1991 that "the danger of a global nuclear war has almost vanished." .

in the American magazine "Foreign Policy"

, Nina Tannenwald, a professor at Brown University , stressed that the world is closer to using nuclear weapons out of desperation, error, or miscalculation;

More than at any time since the early 1980s, as a result of what it called Russia's brutal invasion of Ukraine and worryingly nuclear-related Russian officials.

The political scientist - who is the author of a book entitled "Nuclear Taboo" - saw the Russian-Ukrainian war as a harsh reminder of some old facts about nuclear weapons, which confirm that there are limits to the protection provided by nuclear deterrence.

The writer recalled the fact that during the first decades after the end of World War II, many American military and political leaders, and much of the public, expected or feared a return to the use of nuclear weapons.

Americans are obsessed with nuclear war

She added that the obsession of a nuclear war at any moment overwhelmed American society, to the extent that basements against nuclear radiation were built under many buildings dating back to the Cold War era, including schools, airports, and even inns (motels).

Military strategists - such as the American "Hermann Kahn" - tried in the past to convince people of the need to "think about the unimaginable";

Which is how to fight a nuclear war and get out of it alive.

In her article, Tannenwald explained that events such as the Cuban missile crisis made those fears quite real. For 13 days in October 1962, the world came close to nuclear war.

At the time, many people believed that the world was about to end due to atomic radiation from nuclear explosions.

During the same period - says the university professor - the rules of self-restraint developed, and the term prohibiting the first use of nuclear weapons appeared;

As a result of strategic interests and moral concerns.

A global grassroots movement against nuclear weapons, along with non-nuclear states and the United Nations, has been active to brand nuclear weapons as unacceptable weapons of mass destruction.

horror balance

Fearful during the Cuban Missile Crisis, the United States and the Soviet Union also sought arms control agreements to help stabilize the "balance of terror."

Those rules of self-restraint have also contributed to a tradition of non-use of nuclear weapons, a legacy spanning nearly 77 years now and considered the most important feature of the nuclear age, according to a Foreign Policy article.

However, most of those arms control agreements - according to Tannenwald - have been torn apart, and the nuclear states have re-engaged in an expensive arms race, so that the world is currently living in a period of nuclear excesses instead of restraint.

All this leads us - according to the writer - to the present moment;

A big question suddenly jumps into everyone's mind: Do Russian leaders share the same taboo (of weapons)?

Will Russian President Vladimir Putin use a nuclear weapon in the Ukraine war?

Putin launched a veiled threat

In her answer to the previous question, the political science professor says that Putin certainly wants the world - especially the United States - to think he might.

On the day he announced the start of a "special military operation" in Ukraine, the Russian president warned that any country trying to intervene in the war would face "consequences not seen in its history," which many saw as a hidden nuclear threat.

In the author's opinion, it is likely that these threats are intended to deter NATO more than a threat to actually use nuclear weapons, because Russia has not raised the level of alert for its nuclear forces.

Certainly, Tannenwald adds, Russian officials understand that any use of nuclear weapons would have dire consequences for Russia and Putin himself.

Nevertheless, the risk of the Russian leader using a nuclear weapon is not entirely non-existent. The longer the war continues, the greater the risk.

The West has not responded to Putin's nuclear threats

According to the American magazine article, the United States and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) did not reciprocate the statements of Russian officials carrying nuclear threats.

All that Washington and NATO did was send huge quantities of conventional weapons to Ukraine, and vowed to pursue those involved in committing crimes in the Russian war.

Despite calls from here and there within the United States to establish a "no-fly zone" over all or some parts of Ukraine;

The administration of US President Joe Biden has wisely resisted this.

Perhaps the establishment of a no-fly zone of this kind may mean, in practical terms, the downing of Russian planes;

Which may ignite a third world war, according to Tannenwald.

The writer adds that the poor performance of the Russian military tempted the hawks of the US Defense Department to change the goals from simply helping to prevent the defeat of Ukraine to weakening Russia.

And it warns that exploiting the war to consolidate American hegemony is nothing more than a dangerous game.