Erdogan is confident that the West has finally realized that his country's role is irreplaceable
Two Turkish researchers: Ankara seeks to profit from the war in Ukraine
Erdogan wants to take advantage of Russia's weakness to start an incursion into Syria.
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The Turkish drone "Bayraktar" is Ukraine's secret weapon.
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The two Turkish researchers, Gonul Tol and Albert Coskun, believe that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan turns crises into opportunities, as this is his method of work.
Gonul Tol, director of the Turkish program at the Institute for Middle East Studies, and one of the senior fellows of the Europe program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Albert Coskun, says in a report published by the American magazine "National Interest", that the crisis over Ukraine is just the latest example of this.
first shock
After the initial shock of the Russian invasion, which put Turkey in an uncomfortable position, Erdogan now appears to be enjoying the new geopolitical reality. The West and Russia are in the position he would like to be in;
Where the West is in a position where it owes its credit to Erdogan, while Russia is in a very weak position that prevents it from standing against him...or so he believes!
In the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Turkey's main role in the security of the Baltic Sea, and Erdogan's rubbery balancing role, between Moscow and Kiev, greatly enhanced Ankara's position in the West. Relations between Turkey and Western allies became friendly again, after years of frozen relations, Over a number of issues, including Turkey's incursion into northern Syria and the purchase of the S-400 missile defense system, which led to Western sanctions.
Western tribute
Western capitals praised Turkey's sales of drones to Ukraine and its decision to close the Bosphorus and Dardanelles straits to Russian warships, in exercise of Ankara's right in accordance with Article 19 of the Montreux Convention of 1936, and to close its airspace to Russian planes bound for Syria.
Turkey's position was further enhanced by its recent offer to help clear mines off the coast of the Ukrainian port of Odessa, and to guard ships carrying Ukrainian agricultural products to avoid a major global food crisis.
Turkey's role is indispensable
Erdogan seems confident that the West has finally realized Turkey’s indispensable role in Western security, and what has increased his confidence is the opposition card that Turkey carried against Sweden and Finland’s request to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), a move that would transform the security scope in Europe.
It seems clear that the agreement he concluded with the two countries recently, according to which the objection to their accession to NATO membership was lifted, responded to Ankara's demands, and took into account its security needs.
There is no doubt that the great strategic importance that Turkey has assumed for Western efforts to confront Russia in the wake of its invasion of Ukraine provides Erdogan with the appropriate opportunity to extract concessions from the West.
One of the main areas for Erdogan in this regard is military procurement. Several European Union countries, including Sweden and Finland, stopped arms exports to Turkey due to its military incursion in late 2019 in northern Syria. However, the real worrying setback occurred in early 2019 when it took The United States decided to stop selling F-35s to Turkey after it bought the Russian S-400 missile defense system.
Since then, Turkey has ordered 40 new F-16 fighter jets and 80 modernization equipment for its existing fleet.
The two Turkish researchers believe that Congress is putting pressure on the administration of President Joe Biden to prevent the deal from being completed. Western sanctions have hampered Turkey's modernization plans and dealt a major blow to its military industry.
Back to western markets
Before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Turkey considered many options to overcome the repercussions of Western sanctions, including the purchase of Russian fighter jets, and cooperation with Ukraine in the field of engine manufacturing.
The war has forced Turkey to return to Western markets, and Erdogan hopes to use Turkey's renewed status as a major member of NATO and its veto of Sweden and Finland joining the alliance to force Western countries to end restrictions on military exports to Turkey.
Erdogan wants to take advantage of Russia's weakness as well. He has long sought another military operation in northern Syria to establish a safe zone that could house some 3.6 million Syrian refugees living in Turkey, yet objections from Russia and the United States have caused him not to carry out his plans.
new incursion
Erdogan seems to see that now is the time to make a new incursion in light of Russia's preoccupation with Ukraine, and the growing nationalist rejection of Syrian refugees in Turkey, ahead of the 2023 elections. He wanted to use Turkey's right to veto Sweden and Finland joining NATO to ensure that the West acquiesced to his demands.
The two researchers say that Erdogan may get some of the things he wants, if Sweden and Finland lift their restrictions on exports of military equipment to Turkey, or Russia agree to another Turkish incursion into northern Syria, but Erdogan's efforts to pressure Washington could be counterproductive, as Any further Turkish operation in Syria is likely to strengthen the anti-Erdogan front in Western capitals.
It seems that the Biden administration is ready to sell F-16s to Turkey;
In a letter to Congress, the State Department said that any potential sale of F-16 fighter jets to Turkey would be in line with U.S. national security interests and would serve NATO's long-term unity. But Erdogan's recent threat to block Sweden and Finland from joining NATO appears to have changed the situation in Congress, with a majority of both major US parties raising concerns about what they see as Erdogan's blackmail, and the growing tension between Greece and Turkey is not helping Erdogan either.
new opportunities
The two researchers conclude their report that the Russian invasion of Ukraine opened new opportunities for Turkey, but Erdogan should not exaggerate his maneuvers. Turkey's opportunistic stance and its objection to the request to join Sweden and Finland in NATO could be a milestone for its diminishing status as an ally in NATO.
Western capitals praised Turkey's sales of drones to Ukraine and its decision to close the Bosphorus and Dardanelles straits to Russian warships, in exercise of Ankara's right in accordance with Article 19 of the Montreux Convention of 1936, and to close its airspace to Russian planes bound for Syria.
Erdogan now appears to be enjoying the new geopolitical reality. The West and Russia are in the position he would like them to be in; The West is in a position where it is beholden to Erdogan, while Russia is in a position too weak to stand against him.
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