An American researcher reveals Russia's undeclared intentions in Ukraine
The future of the West's partnership with Kyiv is unclear
Vladimir Putin wants to control the wealth of eastern Ukraine.
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Europeans must understand the dimensions of Putin's strategy before it is too late.
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The European Union did not believe, even days before Russia invaded, that Russian President Vladimir Putin was about to attack Ukraine.
And if the European Union - an organization founded primarily on the principle of "non-recurrence" of disasters - did not expect the outbreak of war, what else did the Union not expect?
In a report published on the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace's website, Olivia Lazard, visiting scholar at the Carnegie Europe Center for Studies, said that the European Union did not appear to have anticipated or noticed much.
For all the violence in Ukraine, the war may be just one part of a much larger puzzle that Russia has been assembling, through trial and error, over the past few years.
mystery
In this puzzle, the war in Ukraine must be analyzed in parallel with Russia's maneuvers in Africa, Central Asia, Latin America and East Asia.
The war must also be analyzed in light of a transitional world destabilized by climate turmoil and geo-economic competition.
Russia has long been seen as an actor with limited influence on climate change.
Russian President Vladimir Putin's position on climate change has been characterized by hesitation between denying or downplaying climate change, saying, "It will benefit Russia, and then portraying Russia as a positive actor in the climate change crisis helping in carbon offsets markets in steps he has recently taken."
conflicting stories
Lazard argued that Putin's contradictory accounts of climate change, and Russia's systemic dependence on hydrocarbons, masked a more nuanced truth about the president's understanding of the risks and opportunities associated with climate and digital transformations.
Russian national security documents reveal that Putin has realized for years that climate change and geopolitical turmoil will lead to drastic changes in energy and commodity markets, which requires Russia to diversify its economy.
“In terms of energy, there are two main aspects that define the Russian view,” Lazard said.
One was that hydrocarbons would remain essential to the global economy, and that the greatest demand for them would come from Asia.
Therefore, Russia needs pivotal efforts in the direction of new markets and the conclusion of partnerships.
The second aspect is that Russia has recognized European efforts to move towards a renewable energy mix that relies on vital raw materials, such as rare earth elements.
Russia is very rich in many of these materials.
And not only that: Contemporary Russia aims to restore industrial and export power, like the Soviet era when it comes to biomaterials.
ability recovery
Lazard noted that Putin believes that restoring this capability is important to ensuring that Russia is able to tilt the global balance of power in its favour, compete with China and undermine transatlantic relations.
In fact, the economic diversification strategy, the vital raw materials strategy, the national security strategy and regional strategies are all linked to the specific goal of strengthening the capabilities of the Russian military and defensive posture, and ensuring geo-economic importance.
3 things
Lazard considered that achieving Russia’s goal requires three things: developing its industrial base at home, searching for resource-rich countries that it can control or cooperate closely with on its own terms, and establishing partnerships with countries around the world that have complementary resources to the resources that Russia can provide. controlled directly.
She noted that Brazil, for example, is among the countries to which the latter description applies, while the first description applies to both Kazakhstan and the Arctic.
Where does Ukraine fall in all of this?
With a mineral wealth estimated at more than 6.7 trillion euros ($7 trillion), Ukraine concluded a strategic partnership agreement on raw materials with the European Union in July 2021, in order to develop and diversify supply chains for biomaterials.
The only other country that the European Union turned to for partnership is Canada.
The goal of the partnership with Ukraine was to support the decarbonization of the European Union and strengthen relations between the bloc and Ukraine.
Since a number of Ukraine's minerals are located in the east of the country currently occupied by Russia, the future of this partnership is unclear.
What is clear, Lazard said, is Russia's intention to access the resources the European Union needs to implement its climate law, an essential aspect of European social agreements, in accordance with the Green Deal.
The use of force and the exploitation of war are central to Moscow's strategy.
This model is not only evident in Ukraine.
The Wagner Group - a mercenary company unofficially linked to the Kremlin, whose owner also directs mining companies, such as Loby Invest - is currently located in African countries with important mineral resources, such as Mozambique, Madagascar, the Central African Republic and Mali.
Even more remarkable, Russia is forging more defense partnerships, including topographical and hydrological research, with either Cameroon or Zimbabwe.
So what does all this mean?
mantle of history
"Putin is using the mantle of history to chart Russia's role in a climate-turbulent future," Lazard said.
In Ukraine, it is about rewriting history to justify occupation and war.
In Africa, it is about exploiting the traumas of history - colonialism and imperialism - to undermine African-European relations.
Beyond these narratives, Putin wants access to resources and spheres of influence.
Among other objectives, its strategic intent is to play on various European dependencies, including future dependencies.
Putin has come to realize something the EU has completely overlooked: the energy transition is a geostrategic matter.
If Europe is to face the challenges of a world in which players exploit instability and weaponize supply chains to redraw the balance of global power, all at a time of climate and environmental collapse, Europe must change its view of the transitions.
Change must be systematic, beginning with simple steps.
First, Europe must understand that energy security and climate security are the same thing.
Second, it must urgently restore intelligence-analysis capacity and strategic competence.
Through them, the EU must seek to understand the complex and dynamic ways in which security and geopolitics, attacks on open societies and democratic institutions, and climate and environmental collapse, shape today's world.
And if Europe fails in its climate transformation, it will fail democratically, industrially, economically, technologically and socially.
If outside players are trying to undermine European transformations, this is a matter of urgency for players in the defense and security fields.
quality partnerships
Finally, Europeans must determine how to build quality partnerships that go beyond trade, achieve climate adaptation and mitigation, and build resilience between Europe and its partners.
These partnerships are critical to building a climate-secure future that gives Europe a geopolitical significance.
The researcher, Olivia Lazard, concluded her report by saying: "The difference between Russia and the European Union lies in the fact that the Union confirmed that ancient geopolitical reactions, such as storing resources, have no place in the era of (Anthropocene - the era of human influence)."
“A new strategy is needed to counter zero-sum game strategies.
It is time for the Green Deal to adopt a fair and innovative foreign policy strategy.”
For all the violence happening in Ukraine, the war may be just one part of a much larger puzzle that Russia has been putting together, through trial and error, over the past few years.
The war in Ukraine must be analyzed in parallel with Russia's maneuvers in Africa, Central Asia, Latin America and East Asia. The war must also be analyzed in light of a transitional world destabilized by climate turmoil and geo-economic competition.
Russian national security documents reveal that Putin has recognized for years that climate change and geopolitical turmoil will lead to drastic changes in energy and commodity markets, which will require Russia to diversify its economy.
If Europe fails in its climate transformation, it will fail democratically, industrially, economically, technologically and socially.
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