Perhaps Kayhan newspaper, which has a clear fundamentalist orientation, described the transfer of the nuclear negotiations to the Qatari capital, Doha, as “a trap and a reward for the United States of America,” a clear indication that the decision did not come out of the crucible of Iranian political decision-making until after discussion and attraction, and that the decision that matured within the Council The Supreme National Security Council had opponents who read in it strategic risks, perhaps the most prominent of which is the exclusivity of Iran and the separation between it on the one hand and Russia and China on the other hand;

This means aborting the eastward policy and seeking to build alliances that would neutralize or neutralize the effect of sanctions.

But defenders of the decision put it within the accurate strategic calculations that respond to national interests.

In the wake of the escalation and a wave of pessimism surrounding the future of the negotiations on the nuclear agreement, the visit of the European Union foreign policy coordinator, Josep Borrell, to Tehran, which lasted for four hours and included closed talks with the Iranian Foreign Minister, Hossein Abdollahian, and the Secretary-General of the Supreme National Security Council Ali Shamkhani, who, after the meeting, stressed Iran's position on contentious issues and the preservation of this position as it was when the negotiations stumbled and stopped about three months ago.

Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian (right) and EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Josep Borrell (left) (European)

Opponents believe that the reason for the stalemate in the nuclear talks was not the place of the "talks", so that the solution was to move them, nor Russia, and the fundamentalist "Mashreq News" website saw that blaming Russia for the stalemate in the negotiations is a kind of American evasion from "raising the sanctions in a way Effective, sustainable and content,” and that the United States and Europe are responsible for the sanctions against Iran, not Russia.

Just as the American side blames Iran, Iran responds in kind and believes that the ball is in the American court.

Although the US administration "is ready to finalize and implement the agreement that was negotiated in Vienna...but Iran must abandon demands that go beyond the nuclear agreement."

Certainly, Iran's demand to remove the Guard from the lists of terrorism is what Washington considers a demand outside of what was stipulated in the nuclear agreement, while Tehran insists on achieving it.

Stalled and resumed negotiations: reasons

Negotiations that were taking place in Vienna stumbled due to Iranian-American disagreements on specific issues related to removing all sanctions and providing guarantees of non-withdrawal again, as well as testing the credibility of removing sanctions.

The stumbling block resulted in an escalation by Iran and other parties, and the most prominent evidence of this was the criticism of Iran by the International Atomic Energy Agency for not “fully answering questions about traces of uranium found in three undeclared sites.”

The International Atomic Energy Agency's board of directors approved a draft resolution submitted by the United States, the United Kingdom, France and Germany urging Tehran to cooperate with an investigation by the agency.

Iran responded, which described the decision as "hasty and politicized" by shutting down surveillance cameras at one of Iran's nuclear facilities, and also began installing a new set of advanced IR-6 centrifuges at the Natanz nuclear plant.

Nuclear enrichment plant at Natanz, in central Iran (European)

With the negotiations faltering and the start of work to build an alliance described as "Middle Eastern NATO", Iran felt that the countries of the region were being mobilized against it, and that this alliance, which would be led by Israel, and intended to be security and military, would target it directly. against it and presents pretexts that would create challenges and a threat to Iran in the region.

Although Iran believes that this endeavor is doomed to failure, as the previous attempts have failed, yet it senses with the Israeli threat and the escalation of the shadow war with Tel Aviv that it must act and impede it.

The decision to resume nuclear negotiations and to choose Doha as a place for this came within strategic calculations that take into account what is happening in the region and the positions of countries regarding it.

In parallel, Iraq is active in its mediation between Iran and Saudi Arabia, and it seems that the political will in Tehran is heading towards a gradual solution to the problems of the relationship with Riyadh.

Why Doha?

Traditionally, Oman has enjoyed a high level of the Iranian decision-maker’s confidence, which is the confidence that made it a place for secret talks between Tehran and Washington at the end of Ahmadinejad’s rule, so that negotiations later resulted in the nuclear agreement that was signed in 2015. Until the decision came out by choosing Doha as a venue for indirect negotiations With the United States, parties within the decision-making institutions were arguing about the need to preserve the Omani role.

However, given a set of factors and developments in the region, the Iranian decision came that Doha will be the host of the talks, which will be limited to the European parties and will be represented by Borrell, and the American side, represented by Robert Malley, while Iran will be represented in these talks by the chief Iranian negotiator, Ali Bagheri.

The following factors and determinants that led to the choice of Doha can be specifically included:

  • The development that occurred after the crisis of the blockade of Qatar and Iran's position on the crisis and the significant improvement in Qatari-Iranian relations;

    Where Iran found an opportunity to build an image that says it is a trustworthy neighbor, which constitutes strengths in building its future alliances or strengthening its position with its allies. In return, Doha sought and defended the option of dialogue with Iran as an important and influential neighbor.

  • The Neighborhood Priority Policy announced by Ibrahim Raisi, and therefore what it describes as granting concessions to Doha, is in one of its aspects a guide that Tehran provides as a basis for building confidence with its neighbors, although the demands of Arab countries to be part of the nuclear negotiations do not find acceptance in Iran.

  • The active Qatari diplomatic activity and the influential political movement back and forth between Tehran and Washington, and the investment of Qatar’s previous experiences in mediation.

  • The escalation of the Gulf states’ normalization with Israel, which Iran sees as a direct security threat. Therefore, it is in its interest to cut off the road to Israel by strengthening the relationship with a country that Iran recognizes as influential, albeit small in terms of area.

Does the solution pass through Doha?

The Doha talks will focus on specific issues that form the core of the dispute between Tehran and Washington and impede reaching a final agreement to revive the nuclear agreement. Therefore, seeking to make the talks limited to the Iranian and American parties, with a European role mediating, or more precisely by “transmitting messages” between the two sides, It may establish a solution that leads to an agreement in Vienna at a later time, but the expectation of overcoming all obstacles seems to be overly optimistic due to the sensitivity and complexity of the remaining issues of contention for the two sides, which may lead to the possibility of partial understandings on some issues, and may open the way for direct talks between Tehran and Washington, which is what Iran's top leadership still rejects it.

Whatever the future of these talks, Qatar’s entry into the negotiation box by hosting the talks came within Iranian strategic calculations that go beyond the nuclear agreement and will have its consequences, whether with regard to the relationship with Iran and the United States of America, or with regard to the region’s hot files.