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Madrid summit: facing NATO, Turkey will be "in a position of strength"

Bayram Balci director of the French Institute of Anatolian Studies © IRIS

Text by: Nina Désesquelle

8 mins

Turkey's policy vis-à-vis NATO and Russia is widely commented on the eve of the opening of the Atlantic Alliance summit on June 28 in Madrid.

In the context of the crisis in Ukraine, Turkey opposed Finland and Sweden joining NATO, but also continues, as a NATO member, to deliver military drones to Ukraine.

Ankara's position, often perceived by Westerners as ambiguous, remains dictated by Ankara's security imperatives.

Interview with Bayram Balci, director of the French Institute for Anatolian Studies.

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RFI: What really interests Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and what can he get from his NATO partners at the Madrid summit?

Bayram Balci:

 To understand Turkey's expectations, we have to go back a bit to the special link between Turkey and NATO.

Turkey has been a member since 1952, practically since this organization has existed.

From the start, Turkey has had, to say the least, a feeling that even if it has always been loyal and faithful to the members of the Atlantic Alliance, its “NATO” neighbors do not sufficiently take into account the security concerns that preoccupy it.

We saw it in 1964 (Washington refused the

 and took the option of managing it via the UN, editor's note), we saw it more recently during the Syrian crisis.

When Turkey shot down a Russian plane and almost came into direct conflict with Russia and the regime of Bashar al-Assad, Ankara felt that NATO was not supportive enough, not understanding enough of the position and Turkey's security concerns.

In general, Turkey thinks that it is always the same thing: NATO asks Turkey to make a lot of efforts for the security of NATO countries, but these countries are not united enough when Turkey needs it.

This is why, on the eve of this summit, Turkey finds itself, if I may say so, in a position of strength.

What will it rely on in this balance of power

We have seen to what extent, since the Ukrainian crisis, the NATO countries are getting organized and want to unite against Vladimir Putin.

Turkey is, all the same, the third country of NATO.

And the Alliance needs Turkey for several reasons.

First, because Turkey guards the Bosphorus and Dardanelles straits.

Then, Turkey is a neighbor with Russia, it can play a fundamental role.

By supporting Ukraine, it is already acting against Russia.

Finally, lately, there has been the

, the entry of new countries.

Turkey is asked to give its approval for the accession of Sweden and Finland.

The admission of new members requires the unanimity of NATO members, and Turkey, which considers that once again NATO does not take its security concerns into account, sets its conditions. 

What are they ?

In recent years, Turkey has distanced itself from its “NATO” partners.

She approached Russia, bought the Russian

.

There are also differences between Turkey and Western countries in Syria, due to a rather considerable deterioration in Turkey's human rights situation.

There is a break between Turkey and its traditional partners, the countries of the West.

Given that Turkey was expelled from the F35 program, that it was a partner there and has even already invested quite a lot in the manufacture of this aircraft, and since NATO expelled Ankara from this project after the purchasing the S400s from Russia, I think Turkey is asking for it to be reinstated. 

Turkey also demands that NATO countries take into account its

.

The fact that the Kurdish militias are supported by Westerners during the fighting against Daesh poses a problem.

The complexity of this situation is that these Kurdish militias, which fight Daesh, are also controlled by the PKK which is at war against Turkey.

Turkey believes that the support given to Kurdish militias in the name of the fight against Daesh contributes, indirectly or directly, to the war that the PKK is waging against Turkey.

As a result, she feels that her safety is not given enough consideration by Westerners.

There will be other topics, concerning the Turkish arms industry.

Turkey has recently suffered from the fact that some Western countries have cut off cooperation with it, in particular, for the manufacture of drone engines.

Therefore, vis-à-vis NATO, Turkey will seek to regain its place as a partner and to have its security and military cooperation interests respected.

But doesn't this only accentuate the ambiguity of the position of the Turks vis-à-vis Russia

Turkey's position in relation to Russia is as follows: during the war in Syria, it felt that its security concerns were not taken into account so much by Western countries, but much more by Russia.

For example, while Turkey and Russia are diametrically opposed in politics in Syria, Russia has not given arms to Kurdish militias and these have not been used against Turkey.

So Turkey believes that there is a principle of loyalty to the West, but at the same time, when Turkey's security is threatened, it believes that it has the right to take the necessary measures, to adopt the policy necessary to best ensure its own security.

As a result, Westerners think that Turkey is playing a double game, that it is not loyal enough.

But Turkey can reproach its NATO partners for the same thing, insofar as they support militias which, certainly, fight Daesh, but at the same time pose a real security challenge to Turkey.

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Can we assume that in the context of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, Turkey has more interest in contributing to the resumption of negotiations and the de-escalation in relations between Russia and Ukraine? 

It's a bit like Turkey's objective.

Moreover, she succeeded, because since the war broke out, there have been two important meetings between the protagonists, the Ukrainians and the Russians.

Even if they did not end the war,

 : one in Antalya, the other in Istanbul.

Turkey sees itself as the only one who can talk to both sides, the Ukrainians and the Russians, when the West has, in fact, virtually broken with Russia.

Turkey believes in being able to talk to each other to find a peaceful and diplomatic solution to the war.

As a result, it is in its role of arbitration and mediation.

Will she succeed?

I do not know.

But still, for the moment, I would say that Erdogan is playing a game, a strategy, which I find quite balanced, quite skilful, in the sense that, while continuing his economic cooperation with Russia, at the military level, he continues to support Ukraine.

And sometimes he takes a lot of risks vis-à-vis Russia.

Turkey knows itself vulnerable.

We can very well imagine that tomorrow, Russia, to punish Turkey for

, may well create problems for Turkey in Syria, in Idleb, for example.

It is Russia that controls Syria.

So far, she doesn't.

But it is obvious that as a member of NATO, Turkey takes a lot of risks.

And I think sometimes Westerners don't realize how Turkey is in a not entirely easy position in this conflict between Ukraine and Russia.

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• NATO

• Turkey

• Recep Tayyip Erdogan