After the Vienna nuclear negotiations faltered last March and have been frozen since then, the visit of the European Union foreign policy chief Josep Borrell to Tehran broke this deadlock, and he agreed with the Iranian side to resume it soon in one of the Gulf countries, without specifying the time and place.
In order to find out the factors that contributed to solving the knot of nuclear negotiations and got them out of the blockage, Al Jazeera Net polled the views of Iranian diplomats, experts and political analysts, who presented the possible scenarios regarding the future of the nuclear negotiations and the guarantees obtained by Tehran, as well as the western side to return to the negotiating table.
What is new behind the Iranian and European announcement of the resumption of nuclear negotiations soon?
The Iranian diplomat, former ambassador to Norway, Sri Lanka and Hungary, Abdolreza Farji Rad, believes that the atmosphere of optimism that prevailed in Josep Borrell's talks in Tehran stemmed from Borrell's transfer of the American side's approval of some Iranian demands, explaining that Foreign Minister Hussein Amir Abdollahian's statements after his meeting Borrell indicates that the Iranian side has obtained the green light from the United States regarding the possibility of resolving the other thorny issues.
Faraji Rad revealed, to Al-Jazeera Net, that the Iranian side submitted a request to lift the sanctions on "the headquarters of Khatam al-Anbiya" (the economic arm of the Revolutionary Guards), considering the recent European interaction with Iranian demands as an indication of Washington's desire to make concessions to revive the nuclear agreement.
Referring to the publication by the Deputy Foreign Policy Officer of the European Union, Enrique Mora, a photo of him with the US envoy to Iran, Robert Mali, and Borrell, prior to Borrell's visit to Tehran, the Iranian diplomat said that Mali had conveyed to the European envoy a message to Iran that could pave the way for nuclear negotiations and constitute A nucleus for reviving the nuclear deal.
Faraji Rad: Iran has asked to lift the sanctions on the headquarters of the "Khatam al-Anbiya" of the Revolutionary Guards (Iranian press)
What are the indications that the United States wants to revive the nuclear agreement?
The statements of British Prime Minister Boris Johnson a few days ago and his desire to resume his country’s commercial dealings with Iran are indicative of his previous knowledge of what will happen in the coming days, according to Farji Rad, who considered the British position as an indication that the parties to the nuclear negotiations had reached a solution through mediations that did not stop for a day in the past period. .
The Iranian diplomat believes that Washington is in direct contact with its partners regarding efforts to revive the nuclear agreement, adding that the Biden administration, as it approaches the midterm elections scheduled for next November, wants to reassure the Americans that it is seeking to reach a good agreement with Iran despite its steadfastness in the past period. .
Press conference of the Iranian (right) and Russian (Al-Jazeera) foreign ministers
What are the factors that led to getting the negotiations out of the blockage they reached since last March?
The former Iranian ambassador to Jordan and Lebanon, Ahmed Dastamaljian, sees the prolongation of the Russian war on Ukraine and the food and energy crises as helping factors in the Western tendency to resume nuclear negotiations. nuclear program and the lifting of US sanctions on Tehran.
Dastamaljian - in his speech to Al Jazeera Net - referred to the recent Israeli escalation against Iran, believing that international circles see diplomacy as the only solution to the Iranian nuclear file, and that the world cannot tolerate a new crisis with uncalculated repercussions.
The former Iranian diplomat confirmed the failure of the Israeli efforts aimed at blocking the diplomatic track regarding the Iranian nuclear issue, stressing the determination of the Iranian and American sides to resolve the thorny issues between them and prevent the file from escalating again.
After the recent crisis in the relationship between Tehran and the International Atomic Energy Agency, will Borrell's visit be an alternative to the agency's role in resolving the outstanding issues between them?
Dastmaljian believes that the origin of the crisis between Tehran and the IAEA is political and far from technical issues, and he expects the resumption of cooperation between them after the resumption of nuclear negotiations and the resolution of outstanding issues between Washington and Tehran.
The former Iranian diplomat confirmed that Borrell's visit to Tehran came in the context of European mediation and was not on behalf of the Director of the Atomic Agency, Rafael Grossi. .
Regarding the visit of Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov to Tehran, Dastaljian said that the Russian official’s discussions dealt with many files, including the economic partnership between Moscow and Tehran and their bilateral cooperation in Syria and other regional and international files, especially the Iranian nuclear file, but the main factor behind resolving the knot of resuming negotiations is due to The efforts of the Iranian and European sides.
What guarantees of the new appeal to both Tehran and the West?
Has Iran made concessions for that?
According to Abbas Aslani, a researcher at the Middle East Center for Studies, "there are no guarantees for any of the Iranian and Western sides regarding the resumption of nuclear negotiations, and what happened is a Western response to the latest Iranian package of proposals."
Aslani believes that the decision of the International Atomic Energy Agency's Board of Governors complicated matters and postponed reaching an agreement to resume the Vienna nuclear negotiations.
Aslani explained - to Al Jazeera Net - that the return of negotiations stems from the conviction of the Iranian and Western sides in the efficacy of the diplomatic option to resolve the thorny issues in the nuclear file, and neither of them offered concessions or privileges to the opposite party except the agreement to return to the negotiating table and resolve matters through dialogue that had previously proven its usefulness in Overcoming a number of issues that seemed thorny.
Abbas Aslani: Despite optimism, it is not possible to be certain that the new round of negotiations will lead to a return to the nuclear agreement (Al-Jazeera)
What are the possible scenarios for the future of nuclear negotiations?
The Iranian researcher says that his country and the “1 + 4” group (the Joint Committee for the Nuclear File Negotiations: Germany, Britain, France, Russia and China) entered several rounds of nuclear negotiations last year, and were close to signing a document to revive the nuclear agreement, stressing that despite his optimism, he cannot be certain. The new round culminated in the signing of a document to revive the nuclear agreement.
Aslani saw in the recent Iranian response to the decision of the IAEA Board of Governors a factor that contributed to motivating the Western side to return to the negotiating table.
He expressed his hope that the new round of negotiations will bear fruit within a month after its launch, and that this constitutes the most likely scenario for it, but he said that the resumption of negotiations does not mean that the specter of nuclear disputes will be completely dispelled, and that the scenario of its failure will remain.
Aslani believes that resuming negotiations will not relieve Western pressure on Tehran regarding its approach to building a nuclear bomb, and that "the Western side, headed by the United States, will continue these allegations" to obtain concessions from Iran, adding that the Israeli psychological war will double to thwart the nuclear negotiations and torpedo what was agreed upon. .
The researcher concluded that the Iranian economy is suffering from a severe blockade due to the US sanctions, and that Iran wants to revive the nuclear agreement and lift the sanctions on it to improve the lives of its citizens, but it does not rely much on this option.Keywords: