China News Service, June 21 (Reporter Meng Xiangjun) On the 19th local time, after the preliminary results of the second round of voting in the French National Assembly election came out, many people began to worry about the future fate of the country.
Why is this?
Because, as Reuters put it, Macron's ruling coalition lost its absolute majority in parliament in the "democracy shock".
【How to choose this election? 】
The French parliament implements a bicameral system, consisting of the National Assembly (the lower house of parliament) and the Senate. As you can see from the name, the election of the National Assembly is directly elected by the people, and the national general election is held every five years.
The National Assembly can be dissolved by the President, but not the Senate.
But the great thing about the National Assembly is that it has the right to pass a motion of no confidence in the government. Once the parliament votes against the government, the government has to resign.
French President Emmanuel Macron.
The National Assembly has 577 seats, corresponding to 577 constituencies across the country. Each constituency has to vote for one member, and almost one member represents 125,000 people.
This time, more than 1,100 candidates are vying for those seats.
In order to get the "right to speak", everyone naturally tried their best.
Because whether the ruling party can hold an absolute majority in the National Assembly will affect the appointment of the new prime minister and the composition of the government, as well as the direction and efficiency of the ruling party's governance.
[Two extremes, surround the center]
In the first round of voting, the centrist coalition led by Macron ranked first;
The reason lies in the number of votes and the number of seats.
Macron's ruling coalition's vote rate fell sharply compared with the last time, and this time, according to the French media's description, it is a "rare situation"-the ruling coalition failed to reach the absolute majority threshold of 289 seats.
This is embarrassing.
In other words, Macron's alliance has become "weak", and several of his opponents have become "stronger"!
Reuters: Macron loses absolute majority in French National Assembly in 'democracy shock'.
Image source: Screenshot of Reuters report
According to the forecast, the situation is clear at a glance:
Macron's centrist ruling coalition, with 38.57% of the vote, won 245 seats;
Melenchon's left-wing "New Alliance of Environmental Protection and Social People" won 31.6% of the vote and won 131 seats, becoming the largest opposition party in the National Assembly;
Marine Le Pen's far-right "National League" won 17.3% of the vote, a record high and won 89 seats;
And the Republican Party, which won 6.98% of the vote, also divided 61 seats...
Therefore, Agence France-Presse pointed out that Macron and his alliance are facing "a situation close to disaster", and he is expected to get the smallest majority of votes since the establishment of the French Fifth Republic in 1958.
This almost "illogical" election result will mean that France has formed three major political sectors, completely sweeping away the traditional pattern of alternating power between the left and the right.
"Two extremes, surround the center." If he does not negotiate and form alliances with other political parties, Macron will face severe challenges in the next five years. He will be surrounded by left-wing, ecological and far-right forces, and the room for manoeuvre in power will be greatly reduced.
【Rivals break through like a tsunami】
The Socialist Party, which had "basically disappeared", was reborn by uniting with a key figure, the leader of the "Indomitable France" party, Mélenchon.
French politician and leader of the left-wing coalition Mélenchon.
After Melenchon lost the third-place vote in the April presidential election, he succeeded in persuading the Socialist Party, the Green Party and the French Communist Party to unite in the shortest possible time, so that these small parties, which would have been defeated individually, formed a powerful left wing. League, and eventually occupied the second place in the voting list.
Although Melenchon failed to achieve his ambition of co-governance with Macron, the left-wing coalition became the largest opposition in the National Assembly.
"In less than a month," "we succeeded in achieving the political goal we set ourselves: to bring down the arm that twists the country with arrogance," Mélenchon said.
Marine Le Pen, leader of the far-right French National League.
The far-right party led by Marine Le Pen, the National League, performed unexpectedly, and all kinds of polls were empty.
Le Pen's party, which has previously been marginalized due to ideological and other issues, has only received formal legislative status once since the 1980s.
The National Alliance won only two seats in the National Assembly in 2012, and even after five years of careful management, the party won eight seats in 2017.
This time, the "National League" is expected to win at least 80 seats, which has skyrocketed compared with the previous one, and has properly become the third largest party in the parliament.
It's no wonder that some comments have described this far-right breakthrough as a "tsunami".
"Macron's adventure has come to an end," Le Pen said, adding that the National Coalition would be a "staunch opposition, not condoning and responsible" in parliament, while she said it would "respect institutions."
[Losing many heavyweight cronies]
With less than 30% of the vote in the first round of elections, Macron has a premonition that the situation is not good.
He had previously called on voters to give him a "clear and solid majority" in the second round, and warned on his way back from a visit to Ukraine that his opponent, Melenchon, wanted France to leave Europe and "sows the seeds of chaos" .
Macron has repeatedly exaggerated the importance of this vote, but one phenomenon is enough to show that he did not receive a strong response.
That's the high abstention rate in voting.
In Aigre, Charente, France, an outdoor thermometer showed a local temperature of 42°C.
Recently, France suffered from high temperature weather, and the people braved the scorching sun to go out to vote, and many voters expressed their "disappointment" with politics.
Macron's frustration also came from the defeat of several heavyweights and cronies in his camp:
· Ferrand, the current president of the National Assembly
·Castane, the current chairman of the National Assembly group
· Minister of Health Bourguignon
· Environment Minister Demon Saran
· Benin, Secretary of State for Maritime Affairs
Data map: On February 28, local time, French President Emmanuel Macron and European Council President Michel held talks on the situation in Ukraine at the Elysee Palace in Paris.
China News Agency reporter Li Yang
According to a "hidden rule" recently reiterated by the Elysee Palace, the three defeated ministers will have to leave the executive branch, weakening the new government shortly after the formation of the cabinet.
After the vote, French Prime Minister Borne said in a televised address to the nation that the situation was "unprecedented" and that "this vote puts our country at risk" given the challenges facing France.
Borne vowed that the government would engage with potential partner parties in an effort to form a majority coalition that "can get things done" to ensure the country "remains stable and advances the necessary reforms".
[The next five years will be turbulent]
Without an absolute majority, every decision, every bill, every administration, the Macron government will have to negotiate hard in Congress.
In his second term, Macron has several important goals to achieve, such as:
raise the retirement age;
achieve full employment;
implement a pro-business agenda;
Invest in renewable energy and implement ecological transformation;
Let France further integrate into the EU, etc.
Analysts believe that under Macron, soaring inflation has pushed up the cost of living, making his ruling coalition face serious challenges from the left.
"Unyielding France" party lawmaker Gallbière has threatened: "In my opinion, the retirement (plan) at 65 has capsized." He was referring to Macron's desire to implement in 2023 and delay the statutory retirement age to 65. reform.
The move was strongly opposed by the left and major trade unions.
In April 2022, French President Emmanuel Macron appeared at a large campaign rally.
Photo by China News Agency reporter Li Yang
The first serious test of Macron's administration will come in August.
The new French government's bill on strengthening the purchasing power of the people will be submitted to the National Assembly for discussion. If there is no absolute majority, the bill may "abort".
And if Macron fails to deliver on his campaign promises and pushes the policy agenda, it will undermine his role as the EU leader.
There is only one boost worthy of Macron's consideration - the more than 60 seats of the right-wing Republican Party, the fourth largest party in parliament.
Analysis pointed out that the party is similar to its ideas in terms of retirement reform and may be able to reach a partial compromise with the Macron government.
"Macron faces an ungovernable France," said Radio France Internationale, whose rule will be turbulent in the next five years.
(Finish)