(International Observation) The results of the French parliamentary elections further reflect the current political situation. How does Macron respond?
China News Agency, Paris, June 20th, Question: The results of the French parliamentary elections further reflect the current political situation. How does Macron respond?
China News Agency reporter Li Yang
The French official announced the final results of the 2022 parliamentary election on June 20. The ruling party camp failed to win the majority of seats in the National Assembly, and the left-wing party alliance and the far-right party each gained.
The results further reflect the current situation of the French political landscape.
How should French President Emmanuel Macron deal with the complicated situation in parliament?
On May 7, local time, French President Emmanuel Macron held a re-election ceremony at the Elysee Palace in Paris.
The picture shows the inauguration ceremony.
The continuation of the presidential election
A closer look at the results shows that the parliamentary elections can largely be seen as a continuation of the presidential election two months ago.
Macron was re-elected in April's presidential election.
According to the results of the first round of the presidential election, Macron ranked first among the candidates with 27.85% of the votes; Marine Le Pen, the candidate of the far-right party "National League", received 23.15% of the votes, ranking second; the far-left party The "Unyielding France" candidate Melenchon came in third with 21.95% of the vote.
Macron and Le Pen entered the second round of the presidential election as the top two candidates.
Melenchon only narrowly missed out on the presidential election, while candidates from other left- and center-left parties performed poorly in the presidential election, falling short of the official funding threshold of 5 percent of the vote.
The Socialist Party, the traditional center-left party in France, faces a real danger of being further marginalized.
It has become a political reality that the left-wing camp seeks to jointly campaign in parliamentary elections.
In order to win the parliamentary election, the far-left political party "Unyielding France" formed a left-wing political party alliance with the French Socialist Party, the French Communist Party, the Green Party and other center-left and left-wing parties, ending the left-wing camp in the presidential election. .
The French Interior Ministry's vote counting data on the 20th showed that the ruling party's vote in the second round of the parliamentary election was 38.57%, the left-wing party alliance was 31.6%, and the far-right party "National League" was 17.3%.
This proportion of the vote ratio is compared with the results of the first round of the presidential election, and we will find that the ratio of the votes obtained by the major parties in the parliamentary election and the vote ratio of candidates representing each party in the presidential election varies greatly. limited.
This further reflects the structure of the current French political landscape.
On April 24, local time, voters lined up to vote at a polling station in central Paris.
On the same day, the second round of voting in the 2022 French presidential election officially began.
Photo by Li Yue issued by China News Agency
Parliament may face difficulties
The French ruling party camp finally won 245 of the 577 seats in the National Assembly in this parliamentary election, maintaining a relative majority and still the largest political faction in the parliament.
However, due to the failure to obtain an absolute majority of seats, the ruling party's position in the National Assembly is unstable, and it is easy to be challenged by the opposition factions in the parliament, making it difficult to promote the legislative process, making future governance face considerable resistance.
The coalition of left-wing parties won 131 seats in the National Assembly and became the leading opposition faction in the parliament, demonstrating the strength of the coalition of the left.
But the alliance has failed to achieve a relative majority and is itself unstable.
These political parties are united for the purpose of parliamentary elections, and their political ideas are quite different from each other, and there is a risk of disintegration in the future.
In particular, the current alliance of left-wing parties is in fact dominated by the far-left party "France Unyielding", which reduces the possibility of cooperation between the alliance and other factions in the parliament.
It is worth noting that the far-right party "National Alliance" won 89 seats in the National Assembly.
As the ruling party camp and the alliance of left-wing parties fought fiercely in the parliamentary elections, they failed to form a strong common understanding in dealing with the challenges of the far-right parties in previous elections, thus giving the "National Alliance" an opportunity.
The seats won by the "National League" far exceeded expectations in pre-election polls and made it the third largest political faction in the National Assembly.
The National Assembly composed of such a political faction structure has obvious shortcomings.
The most notable disadvantage is that operations are likely to face difficulties.
French public opinion has described that such a parliament is "difficult to operate" and is likely to be "paralyzed".
Whether it is with the current left-wing party alliance or with the far-right party "National League", it is extremely difficult for the ruling party camp to have space for cooperation in governing; Conditions for coalition of parties to govern.
On the evening of April 20, local time, French President Emmanuel Macron, who is seeking re-election, and the far-right party "National League" presidential candidate Marine Le Pen held a televised debate in the 2022 French presidential election, focusing on economic and people's livelihood issues.
The picture shows the TV footage of the debate between the two that night.
How does Macron respond?
Faced with such a parliamentary election result, Macron has two main solutions.
The preferred option is to seek negotiations with other parties to form a governing coalition to secure an absolute majority in the National Assembly.
If Macron excludes both a coalition of left-wing parties and far-right parties, there are few potential cooperating parties left.
The easiest and most direct way is to unite with the traditional right-wing party, the Republican Party.
The Republicans won 61 seats in the parliamentary elections, adding to the 245 already held by the ruling party, exceeding the 289 seats required for an absolute majority in the National Assembly.
If he chooses to unite with the Republican Party, the challenge facing Macron will be daunting.
The rise of Macron's ruling party is one of the factors behind the decline of traditional political parties such as the Republican Party. Macron has also drawn top Republicans to join the ruling party camp, which has raised opposition within the Republican Party to cooperation with the ruling party.
In all fairness, for the Republican Party, it is not inadvisable to join the ruling party camp, and it will still play a certain role in participating in governance and alleviating the threat of being marginalized from the political arena.
Another option is to decide to dissolve the parliament for new elections.
If Macron finally believes that such a parliamentary structure makes him unable to govern, dismantling the parliament and re-election is also a way.
The French constitution gives the president the power to dissolve the parliament for new elections.
French "Le Monde" quoted constitutional experts analysis that if necessary, Macron could even dissolve the parliament and re-election this week.
However, even if parliamentary elections are held again, it may not achieve the results Macron hopes.
Combined with the previous analysis, when the political landscape is basically determined, the possibility of major political parties changing significantly is very low, which has been clearly reflected in the results of the presidential election and this parliamentary election.
Therefore, it is not easy for Macron to choose either of the two solutions.
But what is certain is that Macron needs to devote more time and energy to dealing with parliamentary politics, which is different from the previous five years when the ruling party camp directly controlled the absolute majority of seats in the National Assembly.
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