"We will work from tomorrow (Monday) to build a majority of action, there is no alternative to this gathering to guarantee our country stability and carry out the necessary reforms."

These are the words of Prime Minister Élisabeth Borne, pronounced on the evening of Sunday June 19 once it was clear that the coalition Together!

would only have a relative majority in the National Assembly.

"From the moment that Élisabeth Borne considers that there is no majority, it means that her action will be to try, according to the legal texts, to build 'majorities of ideas ' which bring together people who, whatever their political affiliation, can find themselves in an action program", explains Arnaud Benedetti, associate professor Paris-Sorbonne and editor-in-chief of the Political and Parliamentary Review.

"The reality is that the day after the second round of legislative elections, there is no clear majority for the first time under the Fifth Republic", continues the political scientist.

The cards are indeed reshuffled in the hemicycle: with 245 deputies, the coalition affiliated with the government is missing 44 seats to be able to vote for the reforms – a bill on purchasing power, pension reform, among others – that the executive intended to initiate in the coming months.

The composition of the National Assembly after the second round of the legislative elections, June 20, 2022 © FMM graphic studio

"My fear is that the country is blocked," government spokeswoman Olivia Grégoire told France Inter on Monday morning.

Asked whether France was, following this election, governable, she acknowledged that it was going to be "complicated".

A caution that Nupes deputy François Ruffin, just re-elected on Sunday evening, did not bother about on LCI: "The country is blocked. Emmanuel Macron does not have the legitimacy to impose his project, Marine Le Pen has not no legitimacy to impose his project. But it must be said, we (the deputies of Nupes, editor's note) do not have either a majority and legitimacy to impose our project ".

With three political forces that neutralize each other, the new configuration of the National Assembly is unprecedented.

The executive will only be able to have an absolute majority in two ways, according to Arnaud Benedetti: "It will be either on a case-by-case basis, depending on the texts that will be discussed in the National Assembly, or by means of a coalition with other pivotal political forces".

The first option had been followed during the two legislatures with the relative majorities experienced by the Fifth Republic, under General de Gaulle (from 1958 to 1962) and under François Mitterrand (from 1988 to 1993): each time, allies politicians were identified for the vote on each law – which is not yet the case today.

>> To read also - Legislative: setback for Emmanuel Macron, without a majority to govern

Numerically, the Overall equation!

could be resolved by a coalition with the Republicans (61 deputies).

But the president of the party, Christian Jacob, clearly warned on Sunday: "We are in the opposition, we will remain in the opposition".

The fact remains that in a Republic that has little taste for coalitions, the "case by case" option seems to have the favor of the executive, whose leader mentioned the "majority of action" - which recalls the "majority of ideas ", a concept that goes back to Edgar Faure, minister under de Gaulle and Pompidou.

First life-size test at the National Assembly on July 5

This troubled political situation in any case signals the return of parliamentarians to the center of French political life.

“It is clear that the National Assembly is regaining a certain influence and weight,” explains the political scientist.

Where the majority had more than 300 deputies in 2017, it only has 245 in 2022 – the absolute majority being set at 289. Conversely, opposition groups find themselves strengthened by this election: the Nupes totals 131 deputies, when the left in the broad sense had 72 five years ago.

The National Rally, meanwhile, went from 8 to 89 deputies.

During the previous five-year term, the opposition to La République en Marche deplored that the National Assembly had become "a recording chamber for the wishes of the President".

According to Arnaud Benedetti, "the government is technically now at the mercy of negative votes. If all the other political forces start to vote as one man against a text, the government will be outvoted."

The first life-size test will take place in the hemicycle on July 5: Elisabeth Borne must then deliver a general policy statement to the deputies to set out the government's main political orientations, and at the end of which the National Assembly could be solicited for a vote of confidence (the latter is not constitutionally mandatory).

It is also on this day that the Nupes intends to table a motion of censure against the government, announced the left-wing coalition on Monday on Twitter.

The vote of this motion by the majority of the deputies could lead to an overthrow of the government: this option is now theoretically possible, in the event that all the opposition forces come together to obtain 289 votes.

Before that, this parliamentary tool could above all bring clarification to the benches of the hemicycle, as explained by Dominique Rousseau, professor of constitutional law, on France Inter: "It will be very interesting to see who will vote for this motion of censure and who will abstain. There will be a first measure of the balance of power in the National Assembly."

The Together!

will it have an absolute majority by July 5?

Without it, the blockage could be even more important than currently.

And in the event of an unsurpassable situation, "the President of the Republic has a major institutional weapon: the possibility of dissolving", recalls Arnaud Benedetti.

"But the risk is that after a return to the polls, he finds himself with a National Assembly which would further amplify the movement observed after these last legislative elections. It does not seem that there will be any possible dissolution before a certain time."

The summary of the

France 24 week invites you to come back to the news that marked the week

I subscribe

Take international news everywhere with you!

Download the France 24 app

google-play-badge_EN