WASHINGTON

- Before arriving at the White House in January 2021, President Joe Biden pledged to work towards a speedy negotiated return of his country to the nuclear agreement with Iran.

Over the past year and a half, the United States and Iran have failed to return and abide by the terms of the agreement that the administration of former President Donald Trump withdrew from in mid-2018.

For its part, Tehran resorted to accelerating its nuclear program by raising the rate of uranium enrichment and halting cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency, while Washington tightened its grip and imposed more sanctions on Iran.


A nuclear bomb within weeks

At the State Department’s press conference two days ago, State Department spokesperson Ned Price said, “Washington wants to take steps with its partners in the Middle East regarding Iran’s escalation in the region,” warning that “Iran could obtain a nuclear bomb within weeks, so We want a mutual return to the nuclear deal."

These statements reflect a complex position of Washington, which casts wide repercussions on its wide network of allies from Israel to the Gulf states, whether Washington and Tehran succeed in returning to the nuclear agreement, or if the ongoing negotiations are doomed to fail.

In an interview with Al Jazeera Net, Giorgio Cafiero, Director of the Institute for Gulf Studies in the American capital, indicated that "if there is a revival of the nuclear agreement, these countries will be concerned about Iran having more financial resources to finance the Islamic Republic's agents and allies throughout the Arab region, the matter Which disturbs the Jewish state and some members of the Gulf Cooperation Council."

Along the same lines, Cafiero adds, “If the ongoing talks fail to revive the 2015 nuclear deal, there are serious risks of approaching a brinkmanship with Iran spiraling out of control, posing very serious threats to all countries in the region, including Israel and the six member states of the GCC".


Nuclear deal = regional stability

As Washington seeks to further reduce its military forces in the Middle East and focus on China, a return to the nuclear deal is critical to regional stability.

"The agreement between Iran and the United States means that you have higher prospects for stability in the Middle East, which gives more resources to the United States in its interest in Asia," said Sina Azudi, an expert on Iran at the Atlantic Institute in Washington.

At the same time, the countries allied to Washington, led by Israel, and to a large extent Bahrain and the UAE, and perhaps Saudi Arabia, have reservations about any steps to lift international sanctions against Iran.

On the other hand, Professor Mahsa Rawhi, an expert at the Pentagon’s National Defense University, believes that “it is necessary for the world to come up with creative solutions to convince Iran that it will benefit financially from returning to the JCPOA, even if the Biden administration cannot guarantee that it will not withdraw from the JCPOA.” Agreement during the rule of the next administrations.

For his part, David de Roche, a professor of security studies at the National Defense University and a former US military official, believes that "if there is a breakthrough and the Vienna negotiations develop towards an agreement, I expect Biden to ask the Israelis to support him."

Speaking to Al Jazeera Net, Cafiero indicated that "the UAE and Bahrain find themselves in the same boat with Israel on a range of geopolitical and security issues, which motivated them to join the Abraham agreements in 2020."

Cafiero considered that at this stage, "with the fate of the Iranian nuclear agreement unknown, we have good reason to expect these two Gulf Arab capitals and Tel Aviv to continue strengthening their cooperation in the security and defense fields."


David Mack: The deadlock must be broken

In an interview with Al Jazeera Net, Ambassador David Mack, the former US Deputy Secretary of State for Middle East Affairs, stated that, "Without reaching an agreement on the Iranian nuclear file, Tehran will continue to increase its capabilities in the field of nuclear weapons. Moreover, unless the Biden administration can break The current stalemate, and until it can, it must rely on the leaders of Abu Dhabi, Riyadh, Kuwait and Baghdad to increase oil exports to the global market."

He added, "Reaching an agreement with Iran is the fastest way to reduce the nuclear threat, and to control the prices of crude oil, which has become a great political burden on Biden."

Over the past few years, Israel has pursued a policy of cyberattacks, targeted killings, and sabotage, in an attempt to slow Iran's nuclear program.

Tehran responded with cyber attacks on Israel and kinetic attacks on oil tankers in the Persian Gulf, as well as accelerating its nuclear activities.


Israel and the horror of the nuclear bomb

However, in a scenario in which negotiations collapse, Sima Shine, head of the Iran program at the Institute for National Security Studies in Israel, points out that “Iran will continue to seek a nuclear weapon, from here the situation could turn into all-out war in the region, or at least , witnessing more clashes in Lebanon, Syria and Iraq, which increases the region's turmoil.

Shine stresses that the military option is only a last resort, adding that "if the intelligence shows that Iran is seeking nuclear warheads, I don't think anyone in Washington or Israel will be able to ignore them."

While Azoudi considered that "the stalemate or outright collapse of diplomatic efforts could drag the United States toward a collision course with Iran in which the entire region is involved."

"This may explain why countries like the UAE, which were previously reticent about the JCPOA, and even welcomed the US withdrawal from it under Trump, are now seeking to improve relations with Tehran," he added.

Dalia Dasa Kay, a professor at the University of California, Los Angeles, considers that “the Israeli-Iranian escalation may become more difficult to contain this time. Israel had temporarily stopped sabotage and assassination attacks after the first nuclear deal was reached in 2015, but after Trump withdrew, Israel’s attacks resumed. on Iranian nuclear sites, even on the eve of negotiations to revive the deal in April 2021.”

And if Israel does not believe that the new agreement restricts Iran's program sufficiently, or if the time limits on it are considered too short, the attacks may continue, even if Iran complies with the terms of the new agreement.

In addition to the above, there is another challenge looming on the horizon if the agreement is reached, which is: What should be done if an upcoming US administration withdrew from the agreement again?

Will Iran then announce the end of its declared position to remain a non-nuclear state?