The language of power imposes itself
Several conditions for the West to win peace in Ukraine
The Defense Group of Ukraine is required to provide the weapons it needs.
AFP
The Ukrainian army is demanding European heavy weapons.
AFP
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By reading the current scene of the Russian war in Ukraine, a basic idea emerges clearly, which is that the language of force alone is imposing itself, to hide before it all attempts of diplomatic action to end the conflict until this moment.
From this point of view, the researchers, CEO of the Warsaw Enterprise Institute, Thomas Froblewski, and Vice President of the Heritage Foundation, James Jay Caravanaugh, who oversees the research center’s research on national security and foreign relations, say in a report published by the magazine “National Interest” that wars capture the imagination. Historians.
They also constitute the treaties signed after the end of the fighting.
These agreements help define the political, social and economic order for years to come.
Treaties should lay the foundation for a peaceful future.
But when you write randomly, it can sow the seeds of the next conflict.
shaping the future
In Ukraine, the fighting and the death continues.
However, it is time to start thinking about how to shape a future that promises transatlantic society a new era of stability, peace and prosperity.
The researchers say that despite the many differences within the Western family of nations, there is a global consensus that a free, prosperous, and secure Ukraine benefits all of us.
How likely is that to happen?
There are many alternative scenarios for how this war could end, from the complete collapse of the Russian imperial kleptocracy, to the Ukrainian flag waving in Sevastopol, to a protracted war of attrition leading to the destruction and slow collapse of Ukraine.
The latest news from the battlefield indicates that the conflict will end in an indecisive place, with neither side achieving its ultimate goals.
Some voices, including the Italians, the French, and Henry Kissinger, are calling for an immediate ceasefire and Ukrainian concessions.
Practically speaking, this will not end well for the West.
This would give the Russians time to regroup and flex their economic muscle (with influence through energy supplies, for example) to pressure the West to undo some sanctions and halt arms shipments to Ukraine.
“We need the basis for real peace,” the researchers say. “The rush to push for an end to the fighting without protecting Ukraine’s vital interests, or allowing Russia to get out of it without being held accountable for its crimes and enriching it with new territory, will only increase the risk of Russian aggression in the future.” ».
Rules system fails
This war began because the rules-based system failed and power prevailed.
Only strength and the will to use it will bring stability and create the conditions to end the threat to society across the Atlantic, according to the researchers.
Regardless of how the war ends on the ground, NATO must be prepared to deter future aggression, with a strong and widespread conventional army, and the means to secure plentiful, reliable, and affordable energy without relying on Russia.
The transatlantic community will also have to help lay the foundation for a Ukraine that is able to defend itself against any future Russian aggression.
This includes helping Kyiv build the capacity to break the Russian blockade of grain exports, defend Ukrainian airspace from air and missile attacks, and secure Ukrainian territory.
Providing weapons and ammunition
This will require Western countries to make bolder efforts to provide the necessary weapons and ammunition to accomplish these tasks, along with the required logistical, training, and intelligence support.
Rather than increasing the risk of expanding the war, a more aggressive effort is likely to end the war more quickly and ensure that it does not start again.
In addition, it is in the Western interest to speed up Ukraine's economic recovery.
Reconstruction costs may reach a trillion dollars or more.
Russia should be forced to pay war reparations to Kyiv through its foreign exchange reserves ($600 billion) in Western banks, from the confiscated assets of the financial elite close to the power (Russian oligarchs), and a tax on future Russian oil and gas sales.
The researchers believe that the reconstruction process will be fraught with risks.
Ukraine is one of the most corrupt countries in the world.
Blindly throwing money at the country and putting a huge amount of wealth in the wrong hands will not benefit the Ukrainian people, or help them get the better governance they want.
To ensure a successful recovery, donors must prevent any aid money from enriching the pockets of Ukrainian oligarchs.
Future reconstruction aid should be linked to free market reforms, which would privatize Ukraine's state-owned industrial sector, attract private investment, and facilitate the prosecution of corrupt officials.
Only by confronting its failed past will Ukraine be able to cement its future in the West and build its political, economic, and military capacity to prevent any future Russian aggression.
political integration
Finally, the West must also take political integration seriously.
Europeans should address the obstacles to Ukraine's accession to the European Union, and keep the door open for NATO expansion.
And there should be no sanctions relief for Russia that undermines any of these activities.
The researchers argue that these steps should be taken now.
In a few years, Putin's Russia will rebuild its army.
And he will come out for revenge.
By then, Putin will have to confront a West that doesn't care, because he will be too strong and ready to resist.
It is time to start thinking about how to shape a future that promises the transatlantic community a new era of stability, peace and prosperity.
The rush to press for an end to the fighting without protecting Ukraine's vital interests, or letting Russia out without being held accountable for its enrichment of new territory, will only increase the danger in the future.
Voices, including the Italians, the French, and Henry Kissinger, are calling for an immediate ceasefire and Ukrainian concessions. Practically speaking, this will not end well for the West.
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