The PP sets the bar at 50 deputies, but dreams of reaching a historic absolute majority

• Interview Juanma Moreno: "Approaching the absolute majority is not a chimera, I see it on the street"

• The PP conspires against the 'Arenas syndrome'

The PP contemplates three types of majorities for 19-J: the simple one -obtain more votes than the entire left, but clearly need support to govern-, a majority close to the absolute -more than 49 deputies, which would favor a technical abstention of another group - and the "absolute majority" - achieving 55 of the 109 seats, or more.

None of the three is ruled out, but the euphoria begins to find outlets among the

, who find it more and more difficult to contain themselves.

What is happening?

Well, in the PP they handle very favorable polls - at least two above 50 seats and another already reaching 55 - and they see the possibility of governing alone very close.

They do not allow themselves to believe it and conspire against excessive optimism, but the main leaders of the

PP do not rule out at all "giving the bell" of the absolute majority.

They see it as difficult due to the very system of allocation of seats and the fragmentation of the electorate.

But less and less.

The official guideline is to contain the euphoria.

Everything that is to overcome the barrier of 46 seats will be "a real success," they say in the direction of the PP-A.

But in Juanma Moreno's team they want more.

What happens is that no one has been able to measure the degree of uncertainty introduced by the heat wave in the regional elections on Sunday.

The urn or the beach.

That is the question.

And the great fear.

How much will the heat wave affect participation?

Will it further demobilize the PP electorate?

These are the questions that surround the president of the Board, who experienced first-hand how in 2012 all the polls gave Javier Arenas the absolute majority, but he ended up dying on the shore due to an excess of confidence and the demobilization of part of the electorate.

So, the

discounted the victory before time, like those cyclists who raise their arms 100 meters from the finish line and end up stealing their wallet.

And now they do not want to repeat the same mistake and they have sounded a rebuke.

The Andalusian PP has mobilized all its resources to alert the electorate that not going to vote could lead to a governance crisis, with the inflationary spiral at its heels.

Moreno's great objective is not to depend on anyone and for this he has tried to take advantage of the lack of demoscopic strength of Macarena Olona, ​​a candidate who went to Andalusia to revolutionize Vox and boost it to 26 seats, but who has seen how, with her , the expectations of his party in the polls instead of rising, fell.

the magic figure

50 is Moreno's magic figure.

That the PP reached fifty deputies (like Arenas, but then there was only one right-wing ballot) would be a "very difficult" psychological barrier for Vox to avoid, believe the regional leaders of the PP consulted.

For Moreno's environment, it would be unthinkable if there were not a technical abstention (if not from Vox, from a very affected PSOE, if the polls are fulfilled).

In Genoa they think the same: they believe that nobody could justify an electoral repetition due to an itch of ideological purity or truncated expectations.

Alberto Núñez Feijóo has appealed directly to the PSOE, to which he has asked that, if he so much wants to leave Vox out of the game, "to prove it."

The leader of the PP has even appealed to the moderate barons of the PSOE.

As this newspaper advanced, the

ones are going to offer them a pact: that the most voted list always governs, even if the PP adds the majority with Vox.

Feijóo has put the meat on the Andalusian grill because he knows that the future of the legislature depends largely on 19-J.

If the PP achieves a comfortable victory from the "centrality" and governs alone, it will clearly weaken Sánchez.

Above all, if the internal Moncloa polls are correct and Juan Espadas is even below the 33 seats of Susana Díaz.

"The Andalusians are going to be the proof of the Feijóo effect cotton", settles a

baron .

But the effect that most worries the Andalusian PP is another, the

.

"All voters go to the beach, not just ours," repeats the

dome as a spell.

In other words, to ward off fear.

Conforms to The Trust Project criteria

Know more

• PP

• vox

• PSOE

• susana diaz

• John Swords

• Alberto Nunez Feijoo

• Macarena Olona

• Goal

• Andalusia Elections