China is increasingly projecting its power on the international scene under Xi Jinping, raising fears that Beijing will launch a military attack on the island of Taiwan.

Beijing considers the autonomous island part of its territory, and says it is determined to regain control, albeit by force.

But a large-scale invasion is by no means the only option for China to force Taiwan into submission.

Here are some scenarios that Beijing could implement:

The annexation of distant islands

China could invade some or all of the islands of Taiwan far from the main island.

Both Kinmen and Matsu islands lie about 10 kilometers off the coast of mainland China, and both came under constant artillery bombardment in the decades since the end of the Chinese Civil War.

Beijing could also target other Taiwanese interests in the South China Sea, such as Pratas atoll or even Taiping in the remote Spratly island chain.

And if it wanted to escalate further, it could seize the Pinggu archipelago closest to Taiwan, which is located about 50 kilometers from the main island.


In a statement to Agence France-Presse, retired Admiral Lee Hsi-min, who was commander of the Taiwanese armed forces until 2019, says that "Pengu's strategic importance outweighs the importance of the other islands."

"If the PLA occupies Penghu, it will be a foothold for short-range attacks and air superiority," he added.

A US Naval War College report states that there are "a number of significant advantages" to a strategy of seizing islands that serve as a base for further attacks, starting from the remote Taiwanese islands.

But China could also choose not to attack the main island and use the annexations to put diplomatic and psychological pressure on Taipei.

customs closure

China can impose a "customs closure", that is, effectively control the air and sea borders of Taiwan, inspect incoming ships and aircraft, allow the passage of "innocent" vehicles and divert "suspicious" to Chinese ports.

A report by the Council on Foreign Relations published in 2021 states that under this scenario, "the Chinese government will allow the people of Taiwan to conduct their own affairs on the island for at least some time while demonstrating that it controls what goes in (and perhaps what goes out)."

Food and energy imports, as well as passenger traffic via daily ferries, for example, will also remain allowed.

"The goal is to force Taiwan to accept its loss of control, and at least cut off Taiwan from transfers of military equipment and associated foreign experts," the report states.

siege

Beijing may also choose to impose a complete blockade of the Taiwan Strait, preventing anything from being brought in or out of Taiwan.

Taiwan's Ministry of Defense states in a report published in 2021 that "At present, the People's Liberation Army can impose a local blockade on our vital ports, airports and foreign flight routes, cutting off our air and sea lines of communication and affecting the flow of our military supplies and logistical resources as well as the sustainability of operations."

Retired US intelligence officer Lonnie Henley told the US-China Economic and Security Review Committee in February of last year that China would be able to continue its blockade "indefinitely", even with a very limited amount of force.


bombing campaign

The People's Liberation Army could refrain from carrying out a full ground invasion and instead resort to air and missile strikes to destroy key military and civilian infrastructure, crippling Taiwan's defenses.

And China could use electronic warfare to achieve the same goal.

"If the People's Liberation Army acted according to its doctrine, we could potentially see a massive cyber attack backed by widespread jamming and other forms of cyberwarfare on the island to disrupt the infrastructure," Andrew Krebenwich, a former US Defense Department official and security analyst, told the British newspaper, The Telegraph. vital military command links.

China could also choose to bomb Taiwan to subjugate it, using its air superiority to terrorize the island's population;

But a researcher at the "S. Rajaratnam" Institute of International Studies in Singapore, James Shar, believes that the possibility of causing "blood and destruction among those they call their Chinese brothers" would prevent this decision.