A crucial head-to-head for Ukraine

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German Chancellor Olaf Scholz;

French President Emmanuel Macron;

and Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi are scheduled to travel together to kyiv today for a face-to-face meeting with President Volodimir Zelenski.

It will be a short visit in which the three major economies of the European Union and members of the G7 will reiterate the support they have been showing Ukraine, but this time within the

margins .

The talks, to which the Romanian Prime Minister, Klaus Johanis, could join at the last minute, will not be a bed of roses for the Ukrainian president.

Why this visit now?

There are three very important appointments in sight.

The European Council summit on the 23rd and 24th will address the issue of Ukraine's status as a candidate country.

That meeting will be followed by the G-7 meeting in Berlin and the NATO summit in Madrid.

In both cases, the Ukraine dossier will also be on the table.

On the other hand, the war is dragging on and a part of the EU led by France, Germany and Italy advocates a negotiated solution to put an end to it.

Europe wants and should be at that eventual negotiating table.

What does Ukraine expect from this visit?

The Ukrainian ambassador to Germany, Andrij Melnyk, has made two crucial requests.

Ukraine wants a clear and unconditional commitment that it will gain the status of a candidate country for EU membership and that next week's European Council take this historic decision unanimously.

Secondly, the lifting of all restrictions on the supply of heavy weapons and providing Ukraine with massive support with all the really available resources of the armies and the arms industry.

What can Scholz, Draghi and Macron offer?

Zelensky has asked European leaders traveling to Ukraine not to go with empty pockets and just wanting to take a photo.

Thus, two scenarios arise.

The optimist is that the trio will give Zelenki what he asks for, a green light for the supply of heavy weapons and EU membership status.

The realist is that none fail to comply with the unwritten agreement between the NATO partners not to send heavy weapons to Ukraine to avoid a direct confrontation with Russia and that they do not open the way for Ukraine to join the EU either, since it does not depend on them. nor from the European Commission, but from all the Member States.

And in the EU there are divided opinions.

Poland, Lithuania, Estonia, Latvia and Ireland want the European Council to decide on a clear and unequivocal result and in favor of Ukraine.

Germany had been more moderate,

qualifying as possible a candidacy subject to conditions.

Denmark was more skeptical, arguing that the war itself should not be a factor." You have to follow the usual procedure.

Why deny Ukraine that status?

The EU is not an NGO and although solidarity with Ukraine is palpable, the president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, has made it clear that there are no shortcuts to joining the EU.

The country, mired in war, is not in a position to proceed with the reforms required by the EU.

It is true that the negotiating process could last for decades and that by then the war will be over and Ukraine, underpinned by this European perspective, could eventually meet the accession requirements.

But the granting of candidate country status implies a desire for enlargement and for many EU countries, starting with France, what the EU needs is not enlargement but deeper integration.

Can the EU agree to Ukraine's candidacy and reject Moldova and Georgia?

It would be a comparative insult to those countries and to the nations of the Western Balkans that have been waiting years for such a European perspective.

What would a bath of 'realpolitik' be for Zelensky?

Make him see that the chances of Ukraine recovering all the Russian-occupied territories, including Crimea, are very slim.

As the war drags on, public opinion grows tired and disinterested, the resources of the countries that supply weapons are exhausted, and the pressure eases.

That the negotiation with Russia is inevitable.

Realpolitik hurts because it requires concessions.

If a ceasefire is to be agreed in the near future and negotiations on terms to end the war are to begin - and the West wants no less - Zelensky must be able to offer something.

Does that mean sacrificing Ukraine and accepting Russia's victory?

As the war continues, the danger grows that the EU states will be drawn into the fighting and that it will end up becoming a third world war.

But even without this horror scenario, the economic repercussions of the war are drawing ever closer.

Exploding energy prices, broken supply chains, and billions spent on weapons and aid pose huge problems for governments.

In addition,

in the absence of wheat shipments from Ukraine, which in turn may trigger new conflicts and movements of flight.

What do the Eastern European countries closest to Ukraine think of the visit of Draghi, Scholz and Macron to kyiv?

The role of Germany, France and Italy since the Russian invasion of Ukraine is viewed critically in several Eastern European states.

Estonian head of government Kaja Kallas recently urged people to stop calling Putin, otherwise she would not get the message that he is isolated.

These criticisms were directed at Scholz and Macron, who regularly maintain contacts with Putin and speak with him on the phone.

In the Baltic States and in Poland, but also in Ukraine, there are fears that Berlin and Paris could put pressure on the kyiv leaders in the medium term to accept a ceasefire and thus cede territory to Russia.

The fact that Macron warned in an interview that Russia should not be humiliated has reinforced these fears.

Isn't Romania's voice enough if its prime minister joins the trip?

Another decisive chapter on the war front is the wheat dossier.

Which, according to some hopes, could advance thanks to Romania.

Johanis's presence could be the first step towards a grain deal that, instead of going to ports, takes advantage of the Danube Delta's dense network of canals.

As Draghi said during his recent visit to Israel, we must work quickly to have safe corridors for grain transport, because in a few weeks the new harvest will be ready and it will be impossible to store it.

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