The United States deploys an anti-Iran coalition: the bargaining chip of interests has nothing to do with peace
Author: Our reporter Xiao Tianyi
【Special attention】
While the world is still focusing on the Russia-Ukraine conflict, another diplomatic storm is quietly brewing in the Middle East. Israel is taking advantage of the situation to attack, the UAE is frequently showing goodwill, Saudi Arabia wants to refuse to welcome it, and the United States has contributed to the fuel, but many countries have also raised questions, concerns and criticize.
An 'era of peace' brewing conflict
On May 31, Israel and the United Arab Emirates signed a free trade agreement in Dubai, the first major trade agreement between Israel and an Arab country, as part of the process of normalizing relations between the two countries.
The UAE-Israel Business Council predicts that by the end of this year, nearly 1,000 Israeli companies will be operating in or through the UAE.
The UAE expects the agreement to boost bilateral trade to more than $10 billion a year within five years.
"Our agreement will accelerate development for both parties, create jobs and usher in a new era of peace, stability and prosperity for the entire region," UAE Trade Minister Sani Zayodi said on social media.
In sharp contrast, however, the UAE Foreign Ministry on the same day also symbolically condemned the May 29 Israeli attack on the Al-Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem.
The attacks and clashes have continued since April 13, and the UN Human Rights Council has formed an independent international commission to investigate "all allegations of violations of international humanitarian law, violations and abuses of international human rights law".
Commissioner Chris Sidoti said: "Israel clearly has no intention of ending the occupation. In fact, it has a clear policy to ensure full and permanent control over the occupied Palestinian territory. This includes by maintaining a repressive environment for Palestinians. and an enabling environment for Israeli settlers to change the demographics of these territories. Israeli policies and actions have frustrated Palestinians and led to a sense of hopelessness, fueling cycles of violence and protracted conflict.”
The above speech revealed the main obstacle to the development of relations between Israel and regional countries - the Palestinian-Israeli issue.
But why does Israel repeatedly achieve diplomatic breakthroughs on the one hand, and atrocities against the Palestinians at home on the other?
Why are the Arab countries in the region protesting in solidarity with the Palestinians, and sometimes seeing some countries colluding with the United States to "secretly communicate"?
Behind this, is the so-called "era of peace" just around the corner, or is a new conflict gathering strength?
Powerless "chip diplomacy"?
Under the multiple threats of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the new crown pneumonia epidemic and the deadlock of the Iran nuclear agreement, the countries in the region are facing a variety of complex development dilemmas. The United States and Israel aimed at this strategic opportunity to jointly promote the normalization process of Israel and Arab countries, and put The most urgently needed bargaining chips for Arab countries in the political, economic, security and other regions are on the table, coercing them to make concessions.
First, in terms of politics, the US pushes regional powers to improve relations with Israel.
Taking Saudi Arabia as an example, it is reported that King Salman plans to complete the handover ceremony of power within this year and put his son Mohammed on the throne.
But Mohammed was deeply involved in the "Kashuji case" and was called "untrusted" by US President Biden.
How to shelve the US Democratic Party's criticism of Saudi Arabia's human rights issues and rebuild the US and Europe's support and trust in the Saudi royal family has become an urgent problem for Saudi Arabia.
At this time, news broke from the White House that Biden will visit Israel and Saudi Arabia in July and host a summit of Arab leaders.
The White House said on June 10 that the United States will not ignore what happened before Biden became president, but it is important to restructure its relationship with Saudi Arabia, which is also a strategic partner of the United States.
Notably, Biden has publicly stated that Israel's national security is the primary purpose of the visit, not soaring oil prices.
Therefore, many media broke the news that the United States, Israel, and Saudi Arabia are close to reaching a private deal, that is, Saudi Arabia recognizes Israel in exchange for the United States to recognize Mohammed.
Second, in terms of economy, the blessing of the United States has helped Israel expand its market influence.
In addition to the UAE, Egypt and other countries have also strengthened their economic and trade ties with Israel.
In May, Egypt and Israel signed a number of economic and trade cooperation agreements, involving regional cooperation in natural gas, desert agriculture, export of agricultural products, industrial raw materials, etc., and promoted the expansion of Qualified Industrial Zones (QIZs), in which products produced in cooperation with Israeli companies are exempt from tax in the United States. treatment.
The sector is forecast to provide Egypt with up to $5 billion in exports.
Recently, the European Commission has proposed a deal to import natural gas from Egypt to reduce dependence on Russian energy after the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.
Egypt has been working to use its own LNG plants to transform the country into a regional gas hub by importing gas from Israel and Cyprus and re-exporting it to markets in the Middle East and Europe.
Thanks to Egypt's geographical location and infrastructure, Israel will deepen its energy ties with regional Arab countries through Egypt and achieve a win-win situation.
Third, in terms of security, the United States and Israel seek to establish a regional anti-Iran coalition.
A bipartisan group of U.S. lawmakers introduced legislation on June 9 that would authorize the U.S. government to work with Israel, Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Qatar, Oman, Kuwait and Iraq on the development and deployment of an integrated air force against Iran. Discuss with the missile defense system and require a strategic report within 6 months.
In the process, the United States and Israel have also been playing up the Iranian threat.
The New York Times reported that the window for Iran to enrich uranium to develop nuclear weapons has been shortened from a year to a few weeks.
CNN said that Iran's attempt to remove the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps from the U.S. terrorist organization list, if it fails to reach a deal, could cause the United States and its allies to consider military options, thereby causing unspeakable damage to the region.
Against this background, the United States has changed its previous ban on arms sales due to concerns over "human rights" issues, and has continuously sold military equipment to key regional allies.
In February, the U.S. State Department announced its support for the latest arms sales deal to Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Jordan, including supplying Jordan with F-16 fighter jets and upgrading the UAE and Saudi Arabia’s air defenses.
At the end of May, the United States sold more than $3 billion in weapons and equipment to Egypt, including aircraft and anti-tank missiles.
According to a statement released by the U.S. Department of Defense, the weapons will support U.S. foreign policy and national security by helping Egypt replenish its existing arms stockpiles and be used in counterterrorism operations and border security operations.
Kurila, the new commander of U.S. Central Command, said he had "a new understanding of Egypt's prominent role in the Middle East."
In fact, the overall policy of the United States towards the Middle East has not changed. It still adopts the method of "offshore balancing", expecting regional countries to form an encirclement to contain Iran, so as to serve the national security and strategic interests of the United States and Israel.
The difference is that Biden has to go back to Trump's old path.
From playing the "human rights card" to the top to abandoning the "human rights card", the United States itself set up many obstacles to the development of countries in the region, and used them as bargaining chips.
In the face of the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, countries in the region had to jump into the "trap" set by the United States to seek self-protection.
The triple crisis needs to be alerted
There are three crises in the current situation in the Middle East that need to be alerted.
First, the marginalization of the Palestinian issue has led to an escalation of the conflict.
Mohammad Saif Daula, a well-known Egyptian expert on Palestinian-Israeli issues, believes that when Israel maliciously invaded Jerusalem and the Al-Aqsa Mosque, the Palestinians looked forward to the support of Arab states, and this support was in the "strategic alliance" with Israel. It seems insignificant, and the last thing the Palestinians are waiting for is despair.
But despair does not mean that the Israeli-Palestinian conflict will cease.
The balance of power between the Palestinian Authority and Hamas is out of balance.
Recently, the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (Jehad) has increased its activities in the West Bank and has planned dozens of attacks on Israeli military and police.
If Israel continues to build settlements, forcibly arrest Palestinians, occupy the Al-Aqsa mosque, etc., the conflict and violence between the Palestinians and Israelis may further increase, which will prompt fighters from other Palestinian factions to join Jahad or form similar military groups.
On May 23, the Quds Force under Jahad announced the formation of the Turkam Brigade, which means that the three major cities in the northern West Bank, Jenin, Nablus and Turkam, have joined the fight against the Israeli army. ranks.
Quds Force leaders said such an operation was a normal response to defending people and land.
The second is to rub the gun in Iraq or detonate the powder keg in the area.
In May, the Israeli Air Force launched 15 attacks on Iranian economic facilities used to smuggle arms and industrial equipment into Syria and Lebanon.
On June 12, Israel bombed Damascus International Airport to thwart Iranian attempts to use commercial flights to deliver weapons to Hezbollah and other regional proxies.
In response to Iran's retaliation, Israeli Foreign Minister Lapid on June 13 urged Israeli citizens in Turkey to leave as soon as possible as Iranian agents actively plan to attack Israelis in Istanbul.
"If you're already in Istanbul, get back to Israel as soon as possible," Rapid said. "If you're planning to take a flight to Istanbul, cancel. It's not worth your life for a vacation."
Al Jazeera reported that Israel is too eager to "strike Iran", and the UAE, Egypt, Iraq and other countries have been pushed to the forefront of the Israel-Iran conflict, which will lead to an escalation of the conflict and increase regional tensions and risks, breaking the subtlety of previous regional efforts to maintain Safe balance.
Between 2016 and 2020, Middle Eastern countries accounted for nearly half of all U.S. arms exports, according to an analysis by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.
During this period, the region was the fastest growing overall arms importer.
Although regional experts generally believe that countries other than Israel will not engage in head-on conflict with Iran, Iran's choice to target Israeli personnel and facilities in a third country may still lead to the normalization of small-scale military attacks in the region.
Third, the divergence of the positions of regional countries has spawned "diplomatic isolation".
In addition to the countries that are friendly with Israel, there are still many countries in the region that are firmly opposed to Israel.
More than half of the Arab countries such as Syria and Qatar have not established diplomatic relations with Israel.
However, the United States and Israel continue to use the media to build momentum, desensitizing countries and people in the region to establishing cooperation with Israel, forcing the government to frequently make public statements on this issue.
For example, the Tunisian foreign ministry recently dismissed reports of secret diplomatic talks between the North African country and Israel as false reports in a statement.
The statement noted that some websites affiliated with the Israeli regime have been spreading these rumors in an attempt to damage Tunisia's image and its staunch pro-Palestinian stance.
The statement also stated that Tunisia is not interested in establishing diplomatic relations with Israel, stressing that the country will always support the struggle of the Palestinian people at the official and popular level until their legitimate rights are restored, the most important of which is the establishment of the holy city of Jerusalem. The capital of the independent Palestinian state.
The United States took advantage of the expansion of regional countries' policy differentiation towards Israel to prevent Arab countries from forming a joint force to properly deal with regional issues, thereby creating diplomatic isolation and "breaking them one by one".
For example, Western countries led by the United States have imposed severe economic sanctions on Lebanon in order to pressure the government to exclude the pro-Iranian Hezbollah and remove it from the country's political and military landscape.
This has also led to a certain extent that Lebanon is in deep economic crisis and cannot extricate itself, and the country is on the verge of collapse.
(The Cairo, June 14th, the reporter of this newspaper in Cairo, Xiao Tianyi)