Cairo -
Extensive controversy and questions about the goals, witnessed by social networking sites in Egypt, following an article by the journalist Imad El-Din Adib, in which he talks about the importance of Arab countries' support for Egypt in the face of the effects of the Russian-Ukrainian war.
In the article, Adeeb warned of catastrophic consequences that threaten Europe and the Arab countries if they do not urgently and directly support the Egyptian economy with the amount of 25 billion dollars, which the Egyptian budget incurred as a result of that war, according to him.
Followers differed in the interpretation of Adeeb’s words, while some emphasized the importance of the article and the validity of the warnings he issued, some saw that the article expresses a clear state of pessimism, while others considered it - according to what is known about Adeeb’s relationship with the Egyptian authorities - as an expression of the vision of Egyptian agencies and a direct request from the Gulf countries. .
Pessimistic scenarios put forward by the writer Imad El-Din Adib about stability in #Egypt in the absence of the flow of dollar support from the Gulf countries pic.twitter.com/KynjYfq7ay
- Al Jazeera Egypt (@AJA_Egypt) June 13, 2022
trillion dollars annually
In this context, some linked Adeeb’s article to Egyptian President Abdel Fattah’s statements yesterday, Monday, during which he called on the Gulf countries to convert their deposits in the Central Bank of Egypt into investments, adding, “We are trying from our side to make these deposits investments, and we have many projects, so Egypt has them.” 100 million and many opportunities."
This came during Al-Sisi’s dialogue with a number of media professionals after the opening ceremony of animal and dairy production projects and automated slaughterhouses in Sadat City, north of Cairo. "!
Al-Sisi urged the private sector and civil society associations to contribute to helping people, to maintain the stability of the state and relieve pressure on citizens, not just investment.
He said, "My words about the state of stability and societal satisfaction are not aimed at preserving order or preserving the president, but rather the lives of 100 million citizens. Do not sleep because the conditions we are going through do not know when they will end. The issue is stressful, and God Almighty is the All-Knowing."
#Sisi thanks God for the stability of conditions in #Egypt despite the global crises and says that he dreams of the day when the country's income will reach a trillion dollars pic.twitter.com/HwHg74hiOj
- Al Jazeera Egypt (@AJA_Egypt) June 13, 2022
Serious consequences
Under the title "Egypt: Who will compensate for the painful bill for the Russian-Ukrainian war?", Imad Adeeb said that Cairo is waiting for its brothers in the Gulf not to be left alone in facing the exceptional pressing crisis that threatens political stability in the country, stressing that the war has caused an increase of 25 billion dollars. , on the Egyptian budget, and that this increase may threaten the future of Egyptian-Gulf relations.
Adeeb played down the importance of Arab support for Egypt through dollar deposits in the Central Bank of Egypt, because it is just a “pain reliever,” while the radical solution lies in providing shipments of energy at acceptable prices and facilities for payment with a grace period, and the entry of Gulf investments into the Egyptian economy.
He explained that Egypt can withstand the current economic crisis until the end of this year, and starting next year, there will be two possibilities, one of which is the "safe possibility", which is to source resources from fresh dollars and inject them into the body of the Egyptian economy to revive it in the face of the crisis, through an Arab international support project.
On the other hand, Adeeb developed a set of catastrophic scenarios - as a second possibility - the most important of which is that it will be in the interest of the non-Arab Middle Eastern countries "Iran, Turkey and Israel", and will lead to the re-establishment of the chaos that accompanied the events of January 2011, as he put it, and will lead to the nightmare of displacement. The great land crossing across the borders with Libya, Palestine and Sudan, and the migration of millions across the Mediterranean to Europe, and across the Red Sea to the Gulf states.
The Egyptians will be displaced by land and sea..
Imad Adeeb warns of a black scenario and seeks help in the Gulf to save Sisi!
pic.twitter.com/gjVisD7cYE
— Monitor Network (@RassdNewsN) June 14, 2022
Egyptian media interest
The Egyptian media showed a clear interest in the article, and most programs were keen to review the article in detail, although they differed in commenting on its content.
The journalist close to the Egyptian authorities, Amr Adib, the brother of the author of the article, devoted more than 30 minutes to commenting on it, emphasizing its importance, and calling for a response.
While broadcaster Muhammad Al-Baz said that the article carried a clear pessimistic spirit, and rejected the catastrophic scenarios presented by Adib, and pointed out that Arab support "does not come for free."
A request for support or a threat?
Away from the Egyptian media, Adeeb's article sparked widespread controversy on social media, as some saw it as a clear message and asked for support from the Arab brothers under exceptionally difficult circumstances.
Tweeters believed that the article carried a veiled threat to Arab and European countries, in the event that the Egyptian economy was not supported by chaos and turned a blind eye to illegal immigration to Europe and neighboring countries, and a number of them refused to intimidate the world from the emigration of Egyptians to them in this way.
While some saw that the Gulf countries would not give Egypt such aid, due to the consumption of previous aid in creating “illusory stability” and directing it to different purposes than the one for which it was allocated, some called - sarcastically - for Adib's family to direct part of their wealth to support the Egyptian economy in its crisis.
What # Emad_Adeeb said in his article is a proven fact, which is that Egypt is the pomegranate of the balance in the region, and its support in the light of a near-global war is required of the Gulf countries, why do these countries not support Egypt with 30 billion dollars of surpluses from oil and gas rises? Manage it easily.
#thanks_yaris
- Abdul Wahed Ashour (@AA_Ashour) June 13, 2022
I read Imad El-Din Adib's article on the economic crisis, in which he calls on the Gulf countries to pump huge investments into Egypt.
The truth is I'm from a school of not being quick to judge or predict.
It means better to wait.
Accordingly, I do not know why Adeeb wrote this article?
Isn't the article important?
Is it not accurate?
1
- Alaa Bayoumi (@Alaabayoumi) June 13, 2022
After the article of the writer Imad El-Din Adeeb, in which he warned of the explosion and flight of Egyptians at the beginning of 2023 to Sudan, Libya, Palestine and Europe, if someone did not intervene to save it with grants, aid, etc., then Egypt would have already become “in another place” and we would have seen “the wonder”, and we have become really "Lead the world", won't we spread all over the world?!!
— Ammar Ali Hassan (@ammaralihassan) June 13, 2022
Imad Adib Bouq, one of the regime’s mouthpieces, wrote an article in which he blackmailed Arab countries and the world and put them in front of two options: either they give us $25 billion, or chaos and the export of refugees and illegal immigration to Europe and neighboring countries.
Total economic failure and media rhetoric, to say the least, is disgraceful media.
pic.twitter.com/fbmA7H2IhJ
— Khaled Farid Salam (@KhalidFsallam) June 13, 2022
11- Intimidating the world with the Egyptians
The official Egyptian discourse is not without affirmations of the state's success in controlling illegal immigration boats.
But the success turned into a direct threat to Egypt's neighbors, as stated in Imad El-Din Adib's article.
Intimidating the world about the migration of Egyptians on boats to Europe is despicable and unacceptable.
— Fathy AbouHatab (@fmhatab) June 13, 2022
The words of #Imad_al-Din_Adeeb are extremely dangerous
, meaning that Egypt is in a disaster, and if the Gulf countries abandon it, it will fall.
I think the Gulf countries are difficult to help Egypt
because they paid a lot for fake stability
and the result was money stolen and directed to other than its purpose pic.twitter.com/hCsb12UOkq
— 💞Anan💞 (@Rina9940) June 13, 2022
As long as the country is in an economic crisis, someone tells Professor Imad El Din Adeeb and his brothers #Amr_Adeeb to donate one billion of their wealth to Egypt...
— ﮼ Muhammad ﮼ Al-Zayani (@Mohamed_Srag1) June 14, 2022
Maine political expert Imad Al-Din Adeeb sees this?
, I am the one who knows him by name, this one has provisions and escapes by land of Egypt because he owes bricks of the earth!
Is it any imprisoned nowadays is said by a political expert?
, This is a fashion, I mean, and there are no similar rulings, and what is the issue exactly?
😂😂
— Mohamed Salah 🇪🇬🇸🇦🇪🇧🇭 (@abosaher2017) June 14, 2022
Refutation of the article
A number of specialists were keen to refute what was stated in Adib’s article, especially with regard to the numbers he presented, whether to express the extent of the crisis, or the government’s efforts to confront it, including the “Sahih Egypt” platform concerned with correcting information, which clarified the incorrectness of a number of statistics presented by Adib in his article. .
The Egyptian economic researcher Abdel Hafeez El-Sawy also saw that the Egyptian regime did not respond to the advice of financial and economic experts about its economic misbehavior and its financial choices. Since the military coup in July 2013, Egypt’s economic choices do not suit its needs. And services, strengthen Egypt's domestic product, especially in light of its heavy dependence on the outside.
Al-Sawy said in an article on Facebook, that the regime continued to waste limited financial resources, as well as what it obtained from foreign aid and loans, in infrastructure projects that are not needed in the short and medium terms, as well as wasting a lot of resources in establishing the new administrative capital, as well as spending on armaments. The result was the widening of the poverty cycle to include more than 30% of the Egyptian people, and a percentage close to that percentage is vulnerable to poverty, according to the testimony of the World Bank.
In turn, Imad Al-Wakeel, a former professor of economics and business administration at Purdue University in the United States, hoped that the Egyptian regime would have a rational man who would try to stop the slide into the abyss, because the situation is catastrophic and the regime will not bear it until the end of the year.
In a post on his Facebook page, Al-Wakeel considered that the low credit rating had stopped the sale of Egyptian bonds, after the system had already sold billions of dollars in them.
💬 The journalist writer # Emad El-Din_Adeeb published a new article on the Asas Media website, under the title: "Egypt: Who will compensate for the painful bill for the Russian-Ukrainian war", but he has fallen into a number of digital errors, related to the economic, health and educational situation in Egypt.
@Adeeb_Emad@asasmedialb# Sahih_Egypt pic.twitter.com/iYZscLr52F
- Sahih Egypt (@SaheehMasr) June 13, 2022
debt burdens
The burden of internal and external debts devours the entire Egyptian state’s revenues, reaching 110% of the total public revenues, i.e. about one trillion and 655.7 billion pounds (89 billion dollars) (690.2 billion pounds in interests and 965.5 billion in debt installments).
While the total expected revenues amount to one trillion and 517.9 billion pounds (81.6 billion dollars), according to the financial statement of the state’s general budget for the fiscal year (2022-2023).
The gap between the external debt and the cash reserve in Egypt increased by about 4 times in 12 years, according to Bloomberg, as the external debt jumped to 145.5 billion dollars, and the cash reserves fell to about 37.1 billion, and the cash reserve in 2011 was about 36 billion dollars and the external debt 34.9 billion.
As a result of the large commitments, Egypt will become the largest issuer of sovereign debt among emerging markets in Europe, the Middle East and Africa, with issuances amounting to 73 billion dollars this year, compared to 63 billion last year through its issuance of bonds, according to expectations of Standard & Poor's (S & P). Finance.