Occupied Jerusalem
- The tone of threat and intimidation between Israel and Iran is escalating due to the faltering negotiations in Vienna and the indefinite postponement of the signing of a new nuclear agreement, as it seems as if the drums of war are beating through the media in Tel Aviv and Tehran, amid the escalation between the two sides on several arenas in the region.
The adoption of the International Atomic Energy Agency Council, which is made up of 35 countries, a decision criticizing Tehran for not providing what explains the presence of uranium traces in 3 undisclosed sites, and its adoption of the Israeli narrative alleging acceleration of the Iranian nuclear program, an important station in the scenes of the conflict between Tel Aviv and Tehran, As some features of the conflict came out to the public amid the continuing regional and international debate over the Iranian nuclear issue.
In light of the controversy and international pressures exerted on Tehran to return to the nuclear agreement concluded in 2015, and with Israel besieging Iran through the "Abrahamic" normalization agreements with Gulf states, the atmosphere of multilateral escalation and arenas between Tel Aviv and Tehran is raging.
Under the pretext of Iranian missile threats, the Israeli warplanes bombed Damascus International Airport, on Friday, and this coincided with the escalation of the war of words as well, after the Israeli media revealed the deployment of an Israeli radar system in the Gulf, to the threats made by the Chief of Staff of the Israeli Army Aviv Kohavi against the Lebanese Hezbollah, and the hadith About thwarting an Iranian attempt to attack Israeli targets in Turkey, and the previous assassinations of scholars in Tehran and officers of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards in recent years.
Is Israel living in the atmosphere of a real war with Iran?
The military exercises conducted by the Israeli army during this June reflect the state of war and the existential threat that Tel Aviv is trying to promote. real.
During the training, the Israeli planes attacked many targets, within short periods of time and with a range of 1,100 km, using F-15 and F-35 aircraft. The Israeli forces also trained to rescue pilots who jumped from planes in areas far from the Israeli border.
The Israeli Navy conducted extensive training of warships carrying missiles and submarines in the Red Sea, with the aim of "achieving naval supremacy in the Red Sea, expanding the scope of the naval military arm's operations."
In Cyprus, the Israeli army conducted a maneuver entitled "Vehicles of Fire" in the context of its preparation for the possibility of a multi-front war, where dozens of Israeli warplanes participated in a training simulating an attack in Iran.
According to a report published by the Walla website, the Israeli Arms Development Authority "Rafael" has developed a one-ton bomb that the "Adir" aircraft can carry without compromising its ability to evade anti-missiles, and has introduced a development to the F-35 "Adir" aircraft. It enables it to fly over Iran, back and forth, without refueling.
What are the implications of maneuvers and scenarios of escalation and war with Iran?
Israeli analysts believe that the army’s maneuvers reflect the fear of a war scenario with Iran on the one hand, as well as the army’s unwillingness to carry out military attacks on Iranian targets and sites, and that Tel Aviv cannot wage war on Iran’s nuclear facilities without the partnership and support of the United States of America.
Despite this, Israeli analysts attach great importance to increasing military activity against Iran, but warn that this could lead to a war that could erupt on several fronts, incurring heavy losses on the Israeli home front.
According to Israeli allegations, Iran continues to move systematically until it becomes a "nuclear threshold state" that possesses the capabilities and technology to produce nuclear weapons without actually producing them.
Accordingly, according to Tamir Hayman, the former head of the Israeli Military Intelligence Division (Aman) who is director of the National Security Research Center at Tel Aviv University, “we may witness a significant increase in interference through military operations, covert or overt. This indicates an integrated campaign Multidimensional: assassinations, frustrations, and electronic warfare, with the aim of disrupting the Iranian nuclear program with all its components.
Hayman believes that this is not an airtight solution and will not be feasible for a long time, even if the nuclear program is disrupted, noting that this campaign alone will not prevent Iran from reaching the status of a nuclear threshold state, hinting that Israel has no strategic alternatives but the option military to completely destroy the Iranian nuclear project.
Does the matter fall within the context of the Israeli internal bidding?
The first year of the current government headed by Naftali Bennett proves, once again, that when it comes to security policy, there is not much difference between the different governments, and therefore the escalation and the tone of threats and threats cannot be separated from the Israeli political reality and the internal crises afflicting the Bennett government and threatening its disintegration.
There is not much difference between the policies of the Bennett government and those of his predecessor, Benjamin Netanyahu, with regard to the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, Hezbollah in Lebanon and even Iran, where there is no clear and defined security strategy.
But the most prominent difference of this government, unlike its predecessor - according to the military analyst of the Israeli Channel 13 Alon Ben-David - is that the Bennett government has a long hand in the White House, and that it enjoys the sympathy and support of the administration of US President Joe Biden, which increases Israel's freedom to act on Iran The Iranians are well aware of the difference, whether in Iran or Syria.
Accordingly, the Bennett government - like the Netanyahu government - will not be in a hurry to implement the military option against Iran, due to the lack of sufficient capabilities, and only in the unlikely event that Tehran tries to accelerate the production of a nuclear bomb, will Israel be forced to implement a broad military option scale against Iranian nuclear facilities.
A large-scale military attack on Iran... What are the truth and repercussions of such a scenario?
Israel is racing against time to prevent Iran from becoming a nuclear threshold state, through operations and attacks attributed to it, targeting Iranian nuclear facilities and the scientists who supervise the nuclear project.
Although it is unlikely that a direct military strike on Iranian nuclear facilities, similar to the bombing of the Iraqi reactor in 1981 or the bombing of the Syrian reactor in 2007, due to fears of the repercussions of such a strike and the outbreak of a multi-front war, Tel Aviv is satisfied with specific strikes without leading That would ignite an all-out war with Iran and its allies in the region, especially Hezbollah.
But according to Israeli estimates and expected scenarios, an Israeli military attack in Iran could escalate into a large-scale battle with Hezbollah, and it could also ignite the northern front with Syria as well as the front with the Gaza Strip, and the matter would lead to a protracted regional war.
How ready is the Israeli army for a war on several fronts?
Israeli security estimates indicate that in the event of any Israeli attack on the nuclear facilities in Iran, even if it is an independent one, Tehran will then see itself under attack from the United States and the West, and therefore there are Israeli army reserve officers who believe that it is advisable to take such action. Action and implementation of any Israeli military attack on Iran with broad "international legitimacy" and with American support.
Security assessments in Tel Aviv suggest that the effectiveness of an Israeli attack on the nuclear program will be very high, but the possible development of a war on 3 fronts is an issue that requires great preparation and strong support, which requires Israel to be ready for it internally and externally.
What about the Israeli home front if it was bombed by Hezbollah?
Mawhif’s assessments of national security research centers and military analysts gather on the fragility of the Israeli home front and the insufficient readiness of the army for a multi-front war, as it will incur hundreds of casualties daily, and the home front will be bombed with thousands of missiles daily by Hezbollah or even from Iran, which will cause Mass destruction in the heart of Israeli cities, strategic and vital sites and facilities, and infrastructure projects.
In an attempt to deter Hezbollah, the IDF chief of staff threatened that thousands of targets in Lebanon and Syria would be destroyed during the next war.
But Kochavi acknowledged the difficulties, saying, "We have to talk honestly about the difficulty on the Israeli home front during a future war with Hezbollah, as many missiles will fall in Israel and will cause damage and loss of property and lives."
The Israeli army estimated that 80 sites deep in the home front would be subjected to complete destruction, as a result of being targeted by about 1,500 missiles per day, by Hezbollah.
So what could ignite the war or lead to its decline?
Israel has recently been working to prevent the removal of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard from the US blacklist of "terrorist" organizations.
According to Israeli assessments, it seems that the US administration does not intend to do so, and is pushing for the continuation of the investigations conducted by the International Atomic Energy Agency into Iran's alleged violations in the development of a military nuclear project, and this may fuel the prospects of war.
With the dwindling of the chances of signing a new nuclear agreement with Iran, the international pressure exerted on Tehran may increase, and as a result the Iranians' pressure on the entire region will increase, which would strengthen Israel's regional alliance with countries in the Gulf.
In light of this alliance, it is expected to increase military coordination and joint maneuvers, as an example of this can be seen in the escort provided by Israeli combat aircraft to American B-52 bombers in Israeli airspace on its way to the Gulf, and the announcement of the deployment of an Israeli radar system In Bahrain and the Emirates, which may temporarily delay the sound of the drums of war.