The lessons of the first round of the legislative elections

• Together !

  and Nupes arrived almost tied for the lead in a first round marked by historic abstention in the history of the Fifth Republic.

• The presidential coalition is not certain of being able to obtain an absolute majority in the second round, while the left can hope for a much larger group than during the previous legislature.

• The RN, confined to less than 20% of the vote, should still swell its numbers in the Assembly next Sunday.

The little music of the last days therefore spoke true.

The presidential coalition was jostled by the Nupes during this first round of legislative elections marked by record abstention in the history of the Fifth Republic, between 52.1% and 53.2%.

makes a hot assessment of the first trends.

Towards a relative majority and a rebellious assembly for Macron

Seven weeks of campaigning as little as possible to capitalize on the results of the presidential election ended up being visible.

The presidential party and its allies, pointed in the same waters as the Nupes on Sunday evening (25 to 26% of the vote), will have to take out the oars to snatch the absolute majority of the 289 seats next Sunday, far from the 350 seats obtained in 2017 An unprecedented perspective since the Rocard government in 1988, when a Prime Minister in office could draw 49.3 every morning at breakfast.

The rules have changed a little since then, and Elisabeth Borne sounded the tocsin of mobilization to avoid an ungovernable assembly, made up of permanent alliances and counter-alliances: "Faced with the war at the gates of Europe, we cannot take the risk of instability and approximation.

I therefore call on all Republican forces to rally around our project for a strong and clear majority.

At least the Prime Minister can rejoice to see her candidacy well underway in Calvados, like that of most of the ministers on her team, including Damien Abad.

Fallen in the field of honor of the macronie from the first round, all the same, the ex-minister Jean-Michel Blanquer who lived through more joyful springs, no doubt.

Mélenchon's bet, not yet a winner

Since the time he has been telling anyone who wants to hear that he will already send Borne to pack next Monday, we thought we would find a Jean-Luc Mélenchon excited like a flea by the good result of the united left in the first round of the legislative elections. .

But it was with a serious face that the leader of Nupes spoke on Sunday evening, as if overtaken by the stakes of a possible, but still distant victory.

The latest projections credit the new union of the left with 150 to 200 seats in the assembly, which leaves it for the moment in the middle of the ford.

First opposition force, certainly, but not yet a government force.

"I call on our people, in view of these results and the extraordinary opportunity they present for the destiny of the common homeland, to come out on Sunday, to definitively reject the disastrous projects of Mr. Macron's majority", urged the tribune of France Insoumise, who did not represent himself personally in Marseille.

If it passes, it's through a mouse hole, but there's still room.

Reconquest definitely eaten by the RN

His defeat without appeal in the Var perhaps closes a political career as brief as it is intense.

Eric Zemmour did not pass the cut of the first round, preceded by Together!

and RN, immediately followed in the pit by its vice-president Guillaume Peltier, former defector of Republicans.

As in the presidential elections, Reconquest (4%) was no match for the RN of Marine Le Pen, which has clearly progressed compared to 2017 (19% of the vote).

The finalist for the month of May came within a hair's breadth of being re-elected from the outset in Hénin-Beaumont, only hampered, like others, by abstention.

But she welcomed "this result which can send to the Assembly the largest group of patriots in the history of the country", making the victory of the "patriot camp within reach".

A victory above all symbolic, even if Marine Le Pen can reasonably hope to quadruple the number of deputies of the National Rally in the new assembly, after five years without weighing in the hemicycle (8 deputies).

The impossible reading of voice reports

If massive abstention has at least the merit of sparing political staffs the headache of triangular elections in the second round, the absence of clear instructions from the three parties that are leading the dance makes it more difficult to read the results of the next Sunday.

Thus, as expected, the RN, which most of the time came third in the ballot, refuses to choose “between the destroyers from above and the destroyers from below.

France is neither a trading room nor a ZAD,” dared Marine Le Pen, sending the two parties back to back.

For his part, Jean-Luc Mélenchon leaves it to "everyone to appreciate what his republican duty is, as a democrat", suggesting that democracy and the RN do not mix well in his mind.

Several heavyweights of the majority have remained very evasive, only the Minister Delegate for Europe, Clément Beaune, who is otherwise poorly placed in the 7th district of Paris, daring to explain "that he did not put any sign equal between the Nupes and the RN ".

During the evening, LREM announced that it would give voting instructions "on a case-by-case basis" in the constituencies affected by a duel between Nupes and the RN.

It was finally the camp, LR, in full discomfiture (12%) which was the most clear: "There is a line which has always been clear: it is no voice for the extremes", confirmed Christian Jacob on France 2. This should relieve Macronie a little.

Elections

Results of the 2022 legislative elections: All the results of the first round city by city and constituency by constituency

Elections

Legislative results 2022: Breakthrough of the Nupes, “phew” of relief… The first round in four infographics

• Emmanuel Macron

• Nudes

• The Republic on the March (LREM)

• National Rally (RN)

• Marine Le Pen

• Legislative elections 2022