According to three institutes, the left-wing Nupes coalition is ahead of the macronists united under the Together! banner by a few tenths of a point.

But the small gap reassured the troops of Emmanuel Macron, Sunday evening, who believe they have shown their solidity and stemmed the Mélenchonist dynamic highlighted in recent days by the pollsters.

"We are the only political force able to obtain a majority in the National Assembly", hammered the Prime Minister, Elisabeth Borne, from the Parisian headquarters of La République en Marche.

"It is our values ​​that are at stake: freedom, equality, fraternity and secularism", wanted to dramatize the head of government, considering that "as had never happened in the political history of our country, we are faced with an unprecedented confusion between the extremes".

La République en Marche has indicated that it will not give national instructions but "on a case-by-case basis" in the constituencies where RN and Nupes candidates will oppose next Sunday, defending a "Republican Front against the extremes".

Cold sweats had won the macronie as a campaign deemed sluggish, without momentum, some wondering about the strategy of postponing the start of the electoral battle as late as possible.

The controversy surrounding the accusations against the new minister Damien Abad, the one following the excesses of the Stade de France during the Champions League final or the sometimes hesitant first steps of Elisabeth Borne, had finished instilling doubt .

The score obtained by the outgoing majority on Sunday testifies to these failures, since it obtains around 1 to 3 points less than Emmanuel Macron in the first round of the presidential election on April 10.

Projections for the National Assembly AFP

Compared to the 2017 legislative elections, the loss is even clearer: 5 to 7 points less.

And if the hope of keeping an absolute majority - 289 seats - next Sunday remains, it becomes tenuous: the projections of the pollsters grant between 260 and 310 deputies to the Together! coalition.

Blanquer and Wargon eliminated

The 15 members of the government who are competing in the ballot are playing their ministerial post, which they will lose in the event of failure to be elected next Sunday.

Elisabeth Borne, who came first in the sixth constituency of Calvados, is the clear favourite.

The same goes for Olivier Dussopt (Work) in Ardèche, Marc Fesneau (Agriculture) in Loir-et-Cher, Gérald Darmanin (Interior) in the North, Brigitte Bourguignon (Health) in Pas-de-Calais, Franck Riester (Commerce outside) in Seine-et-Marne or Justine Benin (Sea) in Guadeloupe.

Damien Abad, ex-LR, is nearly ten points ahead of his opponent Nupes and is also the favorite to keep his position.

According to an Ifop poll, Olivier Véran (Relations with Parliament) is in the lead in Isère.

But the Minister for Ecological Transition, Amélie de Montchalin, is in great difficulty in Essonne, preceded by ten points by Jérôme Guedj (Nupes), as well as the Minister for Europe, Clément Beaune, behind the candidate Nupes, according to two Ifop polls.

Among the personalities of the macronie, the former ministers Christophe Castaner (Alpes-de-Haute-Provence), Brigitte Klinkert (Haut-Rhin), Joël Giraud (Hautes-Alpes) or the Modem Geneviève Darrieussecq (Landes) are in favorable ballot.

Ditto for the President of the National Assembly, Richard Ferrand, in Finistère, or Eric Woerth, ex-LR, in Oise.

Former Minister of National Education Jean-Michel Blanquer (LREM) was eliminated in the first round of the legislative elections in the 4th constituency of Loiret GUILLAUME SOUVANT AFP / Archives

Conversely, Jean-Michel Blanquer was curtly eliminated in the first round in Loiret, as well as the former Minister of Housing, Emmanuelle Wargon, in Val-de-Marne.

The result of Sunday evening thus appeared as a trompe l'oeil for several leaders of the majority: on the one hand, Emmanuel Macron is on the way to succeeding in his bet to renew a majority in the Assembly, which had not happened for 15 years.

But the hope that La République en Marche will alone obtain an absolute majority has become illusory, the marchers having to rely on the troops of the Modem and especially those of Edouard Philippe to hope to reach 289 seats.

The deputies will also have to face a powerful left-wing group, unlike the last legislature.

Worse: the risk that their majority is only relative greatly complicates the task of macronie.

The only example in the history of the Fifth Republic: the legislative elections of 1988, when the Socialists and their allies failed to obtain an absolute majority.

At the time, a month and a half after the re-election of François Mitterrand, the presidential majority came second in the first round.

Michel Rocard's government then had to make alliances with the centre-right to get its texts passed, often with the help of Article 49.3 of the Constitution.

© 2022 AFP