The International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) estimates, in a study, that aviation emissions in absolute terms will have to start decreasing before the end of the decade, and if possible before 2025, to stay "in the nails". of the 2015 Paris Agreement.

The ICCT has established three scenarios, beyond the "baseline" one in which no action would be taken and which would see the aviation sector emit 48.6 gigatonnes of CO2 between 2020 and 2050, placing it on a trajectory well -beyond 2°C warming, the maximum set by COP21.

Short of severely limiting traffic growth or initiating carbon capture operations, none of the ICCT scenarios sees the aviation sector set on a 1.5°C trajectory, the world's most ambitious target. Paris Agreement.

But if a maximum of measures were taken, such as the massive use of sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) developed from biomass or ultimately from a combination of CO2 and "green" hydrogen, the "carbon budget “of aviation in 2020-2050 could be reduced to 22.5 gigatonnes, compatible with a warming of 1.75°C, estimates the ICCT.

In this model, “rapid, aggressive and sustained interventions” by governments would be necessary to “trigger massive investments in zero-emission devices and fuels”, a basket where we find future electrified or hydrogen planes, recommends the thinking group.

And in this case, in 2050, "CO2 emissions (from air) would fall by 94% compared to 2019 levels".

The airlines, united in the International Air Transport Association (Iata), have endorsed the objective of "net zero emissions" by 2050.

To do this, they rely 65% ​​on SAF, but also on better operational efficiency (trajectories, ground operations, etc.) as well as on a carbon capture system and emission quota trading.

Cost estimated by Iata: 1.550 billion dollars over 30 years.

On the other hand, the companies do not plan to reduce traffic or at least limit its growth, as some NGOs claim: they plan to carry 10 billion passengers in the middle of the 21st century, compared to 4.5 billion in 2019, before the health crisis.

© 2022 AFP