In their report, published in The National Interest, authors Lawrence J. Korb and Stephen Cymbala assert that Russian President Vladimir Putin's attack on Ukraine was a colossal strategic mistake.
The authors said that the Russian attack only strengthened the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) by mobilizing an unprecedented consensus after the Cold War, for military preparedness and a joint pledge to deter aggression against any member;
NATO member states have strongly supported economic sanctions and other political measures to isolate Russia and raise the cost of Russia's ongoing fighting in Ukraine.
In addition, political leaders in Finland and Sweden have announced their intention to apply for NATO membership, an addition that will increase Russia's discomfort on the one hand, as opposed to NATO's optimism about its ability to fend off further aggression in Europe.
The authors show that with the consequences of Putin's war and the possible expansion of NATO;
NATO members should avoid complacency, and spoke of strengthening political cohesion and military readiness and developing NATO's escalation management skills to deal with a variety of challenges ahead.
Challenges
In addition to the Russian file, the two writers talked about the challenges that will be presented to the alliance, including deterring cross-border terrorism, the relationship with China, the ability of member states to maintain stable democratic systems within their countries, support for democratic institutions among non-NATO countries, and the adaptation of the military strategy of the alliance. With the technology boom that characterizes cognitive warfare and cyber capabilities.
The authors believe that one of the problems that NATO will face is its security plan with regard to international terrorism, and NATO's support for US military operations in Afghanistan has been essential to the United States' response to emerging challenges.
Although President Joe Biden's National Security Strategy recognizes that the United States now faces the problem of emerging competitors and the renewed threat of great-power war, the threats posed by domestic and international terrorists have not disappeared.
China
The authors point out that another dilemma stands before NATO, which is how to rethink the alliance's relationship with China;
China's growing military and economic power challenges the international order based on European-American bases, and creates many security dilemmas for the United States and its allies.
In addition to the direct threat to Taiwan;
China also creates military and political risks for Japan, South Korea, Australia, the Philippines, Vietnam, and other countries in Asia.
China's advanced space program includes the ability to deploy satellites capable of monitoring other satellites or, if necessary, destroying them.
The Chinese Belt and Road Initiative has also increased - according to the authors - its influence on other governments, and turned a form of globalization into a Chinese strategic victory over competitors.
The authors added that one of the challenges that NATO must face is the fragility of internal democratic politics for some member states, where economic, political and social forces can overthrow existing democracies from within.
The authors indicated that NATO will have to adapt its strategies and policies to emerging technologies for deterrence. If the twentieth century was the height of mass destruction in the industrial age, the 21st century will provide a variety of unconventional forms of conflict, which will often be associated with military action, and the major powers will be defined not only by the size of its military forces but also how smart and adaptable it is.