How can China, Japan, South Korea and Europe solve the world-class problem of "one old and one small"?
When "aging" is accompanied by "low birthrate", "one old and one young" has become a worldwide problem faced by many countries.
China's economic data in 2021 shows that China's population aged 65 and above exceeds 200 million, accounting for 14.2% of the national population, and has reached the indicator of a "moderately aging society".
The world's most populous country encounters a "silver hair wave". How to turn the "burden of old age" into a "longevity dividend" is a major issue that China must overcome.
Looking around the world, Western Europe is the first region to start the process of population aging. Among Asian countries, Japan and South Korea have rich experience in dealing with aging. What kind of "stones from other mountains" can Eastern and Western societies provide China?
In this regard, China News Agency "East-West Question, China Dialogue" invited Lin Lingzi, deputy director of the National Institute of Social Security and Population Issues in Japan, Jin Yiji, former professor of sociology at Dongguk University in South Korea and director of the China Institute, and Erasmus Rotterdam, the Netherlands. Bestu, a visiting scholar at the University and the Netherlands Interdisciplinary Population Institute (NIDI), a professor of social sciences and public policy at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, and director of the Center for Aging, had a dialogue with Du Peng, vice president of the Chinese Population Society and vice president of Renmin University of China.
Experts said that the elderly population is not a social burden, but a huge social resource.
The socio-economic development of a country or region is not necessarily determined by the number of population, but by whether the population policy can maximize human potential.
China needs to adapt to the new demographic reality, make full use of the human resources it has, release the full potential of the population in society, and shift from relying on the "demographic dividend" to harvesting the "talent dividend".
An excerpt from the conversation follows:
Population policy matters more than population numbers
Du Peng:
Concerning the aging population, there are concerns about the population dependency ratio and the weakening of economic growth momentum in Chinese public opinion.
In terms of population policy adjustment and social support follow-up, what do Japan and South Korea need to remind China of its experience?
Lin Lingzi:
Social and economic development is not necessarily determined by the number of population, but whether the population policy can maximize human potential.
A policy that fully utilizes the capacity of the existing population is more important than the mere population size.
Asian countries must adapt to growing older populations and adjust policies accordingly.
Ikki Kim:
Korean society has gone through a major period of demographic change since the 1960s, with both birth and death rates starting to decline.
Socio-economic factors such as modernization, socio-economic development, and population and family planning policies have all had an impact on South Korea's population changes.
Beginning in 1996, the Korean government changed its policy direction from restricting births to promoting births, but it was too late, and neither Japan nor South Korea's birth promotion policies had taken effect.
Data map: The streets of Myeongdong, Seoul, South Korea.
Image source: Visual China
Du Peng:
In a recent academic paper, Prof. Bastu argues that if human capital grows rapidly, the low fertility rate may not pose a big obstacle to China's sustainable development in the coming decades.
Can you outline the process by which this conclusion was reached?
Basetu:
This is based on the concept of "population metabolism" proposed by Wolfgang Lutz, that is, in an aging society, if the education level is relatively high, people's skill level is relatively high, and the human capital is relatively high. Improvements can translate into increased productivity, and this shift in human capital can offset the impact of demographic changes.
China needs to adapt to the new demographic reality and unleash the full potential of the population in society, not just create and demand more population resources.
Let young people have children,
What do they want most?
Du Peng:
The experience of many countries in the world in dealing with low fertility rates can be roughly divided into three aspects: time support from maternity leave, parental leave, etc., economic support from allowances, tax cuts, etc., childcare and other services. support.
From your experience, what do young people want?
Lin Lingzi:
Japanese people, especially men, usually work long hours, so Japan has been trying to reform work styles and work methods.
But the biggest impact is brought about by the new crown epidemic. There are suddenly more people working from home, especially in 2021, the marriage rate has increased.
If telecommuting and flexible working continue, it may create better conditions for young people.
In addition to this, maternity and paternity leave, as well as financial support such as allowances, are also important.
Ikki Kim:
The Korean government has followed the Nordic countries' "work-family balance" policy, but the Korean government has failed to provide adequate benefits for working women, or even an effective environment for men (increasing fertility).
Raising fertility levels, flexible work and paternity leave are all essential, which are what young Koreans want most.
Bestu:
Work unit policies must be synchronized with national policies to provide a better working environment, and at the same time, balance the roles of men and women within the family, and both men and women should make equal contributions to child care and household chores.
The low birthrate and low fertility rate themselves are not so much a fertility problem as a symptom of other social problems.
For example, young people have to take care of children, parents, and parents of their partners. The pressure is too great. The government does want to support fertility, but in order to achieve the goal, it may first invest in the field of elderly care to share the burden on the shoulders of the working-age population.
Data map: Some children walked into the farmland to participate in labor under the leadership of their families.
China News Agency issued Wang Yu Photo source: CNSphoto
Shift from "demographic dividend" to "talent dividend"
Du Peng:
The elderly are not a burden on society, but a huge social resource.
In terms of developing "silver hair resources", what lessons can the experience of Japan and South Korea bring to China?
Lin Lingzi: It
cannot be considered that the prolongation of the life expectancy of the elderly will bring social burdens.
Japan's population is indeed shrinking, but life expectancy is increasing every year, which means that the increase in the elderly population has slowed the overall decline.
The labor force in the traditional sense is indeed decreasing, but if we consider the increase in the number of healthy elderly people, the actual labor force has not decreased significantly. What we need to do is to promote employment and employment of the elderly.
Kim Yi-ki:
South Korea is formulating various plans to create employment opportunities for the elderly, and has formulated various support programs.
We have established the Korea Senior Manpower Development Institute to comprehensively coordinate related work, which is working to provide the elderly with appropriate employment opportunities and opportunities to participate in social activities.
Du Peng:
Professor Bestu recently wrote in an article that China needs to adapt to the huge changes in the population pattern and gradually shift from relying on the "demographic dividend" to harvesting the "talent dividend".
What experiences and lessons can Western European countries have for China to learn from?
Basteau:
Whenever we discuss the burden of aging, we have to define exactly what "burden" actually means.
The reason I talk about this human capital dividend is because young people today are very different from young people 50, 60, 70 years ago.
The skills they acquire, the opportunities they face, can actually pay dividends if they are translated into higher productivity.
We should think about how to improve the overall structure of the labor market, not the elderly or the over-60s.
Data map: In a park in Shenyang, Liaoning, a group of retired uncles who love ice hockey formed an ice hockey team to compete.
How to get people to accept "delayed retirement"?
Du Peng: At
present, "delaying retirement" is a hot topic in Chinese society. Some other countries are also facing this problem. How to reach a consensus on delayed retirement in the whole society?
How to make supporting system arrangements?
Bestow:
In the UK, the link between retirement and pensions is not so strong, there is no such thing as a retirement age.
Your company cannot force you to leave your job at 60 or 65, or any other age, unless there are some very specific valid reasons.
This is different from the pension age, which is still fixed.
So, you can choose to retire, choose to leave, but you can't get a pension before a certain age.
This prevents people from being forced to lose their jobs before they actually want to.
People say it will deprive young people of jobs, and having people working into their 60s and 70s will increase unemployment among the younger population, but I think there is a lack of evidence for that, and we should consider how people take on different jobs at different ages.
Lin Lingzi:
We must distinguish between retirement age and pension age.
Japan is raising the pension age from 60 to 65, but we decided not to delay any further because it is important to keep the pension system sustainable so that people will trust it.
Currently, we have the option to start receiving pensions at age 70 or 75, and if we delay, we will get more pensions.
As for the retirement age, it has to be made flexible so that the job market can be more flexible in the future.
We can set up a "first working stage" in our lives, from our 20s to our 50s, when we get married and have kids.
At the age of 50, when the child grows up, he can start the "second working stage" and accumulate new experience from the age of 50.
We can work until we are 60 or 70 years old, or even 80 or 100 years old.
The setting of this retirement age is the key to creating a new or age-appropriate society.